some statistician on tv said that 84% of drivers at the midpoint of the season who are in the chase spots will stay there. That leaves 16% that will fall out. If that is based on the top ten, that is 1.6 of a driver? On 12 spots it is 1.9 drivers. So if the statistics are close, there are two drivers who will be out..I have no idea, but I don't think Manard will be there, simply because he never wins. out of the drivers below him, Brad, Jeff or Aric, I have to go with Aric not making it, Brad or Jeff can win on any track. This is not counting bad luck either, a couple of DNF's from about 4th on down in the last 13 races before the cut off, could shake things up too. Stewart knocking on the door with a big win healed him up pretty quick. Same thing would happen if Kurt got a win. I think Logano with a win..and good places, could put himself in place for a knockout. Every race from here on out, can start clearing up the picture.