NFL 2023-2024

REBS31 said:
Really don’t understand the two point call there. If you score again and want to gamble it all maybe, but why put yourself in an even more do or die situation?
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Teams tend to assume they’ll convert at 50% from on 2PT tries, and if it happens to be the first then they’ll be in position to take the lead with a PAT on the second attempt. Not totally flawless logic but that’s what the analytics say.
 
Brentford said:
Next week is the conference championship round and Detroit is still in it! Man, it’s so unbelievable, I don’t even know when it will fully hit me. I’m way too relaxed right now!
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I’m old enough to remember when they were in their last one. Unfortunately they went up against that 1991 Redskins team that doesn’t get mentioned nearly enough as one of the all-time great teams. They had the #1 offense and the #1 defense in the league that year.

I hope it goes much better for you guys next Sunday.
 
Mahomes tries so hard to keep his sack numbers down. Not exactly a bad thing, but I wonder if a penalty should be issued for throwing the ball out of bounce even if you're out of the tackle box. Probably not as there are already enough penalties in these games, but it just seems like too easy of an out for the QB to just throw it out of bounce.
 
Brentford said:
Mahomes tries so hard to keep his sack numbers down. Not exactly a bad thing, but I wonder if a penalty should be issued for throwing the ball out of bounce even if you're out of the tackle box. Probably not as there are already enough penalties in these games, but it just seems like too easy of an out for the QB to just throw it out of bounce.
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I’m just glad they’ve been calling grounding on Mahomes this year. Prior to this year, he got away with grounding a lot. Seems like they’ve actually made an effort to call it on QBs more often in general.
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
This is shaping up to be another Bills/Chiefs postseason classic.
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Yep. Quite a slugfest in the second quarter there.

The Bills look like the stronger. The way they can impose their will on the ground is daunting for the Chiefs. The Bills are honestly still under-utilizing that advantage.
 
REBS31 said:
Really don’t understand the two point call there. If you score again and want to gamble it all maybe, but why put yourself in an even more do or die situation?
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@FLRacingFan explained well what the logic is, but I'm with you. The problem with "analytics" is that it analyzes the game as if two computers were facing off.

A team that maintains a 7-point advantage late in the fourth quarter tends to play quite conservatively. This increases the chance that the other team will get another possession. A team with a 6-point lead that has just had a two point conversion scored against it is going to feel a lot more vulnerable, and a lot less willing to give the ball back. That is the human element that is lost in pure analytics.

I get the idea that scoring two is supposed to increase pressure on the team with the lead, but i don't think it tends to work that way. The very real risk that you could manage to score two TDs and still not even force OT because of two missed conversions makes it a dubious gamble IMO.
 
Glad to see the Chiefs' offense actually clicking again. The Bills still look awfully imposing, unless they forget to use their advantage in the running game, as they are prone to do.
 
gnomesayin said:
@FLRacingFan explained well what the logic is, but I'm with you. The problem with "analytics" is that it analyzes the game as if two computers were facing off.

A team that maintains a 7-point advantage late in the fourth quarter tends to play quite conservatively. This increases the chance that the other team will get another possession. A team with a 6-point lead that has just had a two point conversion scored against it is going to feel a lot more vulnerable, and a lot less willing to give the ball back. That is the human element that is lost in pure analytics.

I get the idea that scoring two is supposed to increase pressure on the team with the lead, but i don't think it tends to work that way. The very real risk that you could manage to score two TDs and still not even force OT because of two missed conversions makes it a dubious gamble IMO.
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Worded much better than I could have, but that's exactly the line of thinking I had. The psychology of it just doesn't play out for me. I've never been a huge fan of going for 2 at the end to avoid OT in most cases but I understand it. Risking putting yourself down 8 instead of 7 with time left isn't worth it IMO.
 
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