No chance for Junior

BobbyFord

BobbyFord

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I don't think poor Jr. has got a chance at The Chase. He just left his best kind of track (plate track), and now he's going back to the mile and a half tracks that have kicked his butt all year. If you take his average at the next 9 tracks and average those finishes, it comes out to 17th. DEI better get things back to where they were before they made them "better" arrangements.
 
bobby..once more you're wrong....here is the next 9 races and how dale jr perform in them....
 

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"No chance" is pretty definite statement. Especially when nothing in statistics is static........averages are statistics. Your base for your averages is pretty small and the smaller your base the less accurate your stats are. A more reasonable thing to say would be "Jr has a rough row to hoe".

Let me do a numbers game with you since you like that "nothing better than 9" part. It don't matter the finishing order in a points chase.........and this a points chase for Jr.

Jr is 348 points out of 10th at this moment (remember everything changes each race......nothing's static). To get in DJ's place (10th) he needs to gain 17 1/2 points on DJ each race. And we all know 10th place will change depending on how folks higher the the points finish and how whoever is in 10th finishes in relation to how Jr finishes (gets complicated, huh? :) ). But if you take what is the real cut of,f which is 400 points behind the leader, he's only 106 points out............that translates to 12 points per race on whoever the leader is.

Jr ain't out of it..........which means he does, in fact, have a chance! It's going to be tough and probably involve a lot of luck, but the chance is there. :D Didn't Tony Stewart come from way behind about this stage of the season a couple years ago to get his Championship? :)

When it gets to where Jr has to gain more than 151 points per race (the max any driver can gain over someone else in the race), you can say "Jr has no chance". Statistics are fun..........but they will let you down over time!! :D
 
shadowflames said:
bobby..once more you're wrong....here is the next 9 races and how dale jr perform in them....
Click to expand...

How's the foot taste? The average finish over the next 9 races is 17.2.
:puffin:
 
DE_Wrangler_2 said:
"No chance" is pretty definite statement. Especially when nothing in statistics is static........averages are statistics. Your base for your averages is pretty small and the smaller your base the less accurate your stats are. A more reasonable thing to say would be "Jr has a rough row to hoe".

Let me do a numbers game with you since you like that "nothing better than 9" part. It don't matter the finishing order in a points chase.........and this a points chase for Jr.

Jr is 348 points out of 10th at this moment (remember everything changes each race......nothing's static). To get in DJ's place (10th) he needs to gain 17 1/2 points on DJ each race. And we all know 10th place will change depending on how folks higher the the points finish and how whoever is in 10th finishes in relation to how Jr finishes (gets complicated, huh? :) ). But if you take what is the real cut of,f which is 400 points behind the leader, he's only 106 points out............that translates to 12 points per race on whoever the leader is.

Jr ain't out of it..........which means he does, in fact, have a chance! It's going to be tough and probably involve a lot of luck, but the chance is there. :D Didn't Tony Stewart come from way behind about this stage of the season a couple years ago to get his Championship? :)

When it gets to where Jr has to gain more than 151 points per race (the max any driver can gain over someone else in the race), you can say "Jr has no chance". Statistics are fun..........but they will let you down over time!! :D
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Slim chance is a better choice of words. Juniors equipment and setups over the past two years at most of the superspeedways has a lot left to be desired. I doubt that he will tread water. He'll either catch fire or go down in flames.
 
N2racin88 said:
How's the foot taste? The average finish over the next 9 races is 17.2.
:puffin:
Click to expand...


Wrong! :D That's the number of points Jr must gain on DJ each race if everything was static. That could be 4 positions in a race or it could be 6 positions........depends on where in the finish each driver is!

DJ wrecks first lap at Chicago and Jr lucks out and wins, Jr gains 151 points on DJ. The other side of that is Jr wrecks and DJ wins, DJ extends his lead over Jr by 151 points.

You just can't use stats to bolster an argument in a points system like NASCAR uses..........everything gets all turned over at the the checkered flag in every race.
 
N2racin88 said:
Slim chance is a better choice of words. Juniors equipment and setups over the past two years at most of the superspeedways has a lot left to be desired. I doubt that he will tread water. He'll either catch fire or go down in flames.
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You very well could be right.............but "no chance" is not right at all!! :)
 
Junior HAD a slim chance based on his points BEFORE the Chase WITH the team he no longer has. Don't get me wrong, I like Jr. but he can't get there from where he is.
Aside from the trivia post, what is the best finish from a driver the most points behind whom is competing for the top position? Izzit Kulwicki? Maybe I might be wrong, but Jr. is no Kulwicki, even so.
Of course, I'm really a Rusty fan.
 
DE_Wrangler_2 said:
Wrong! :D That's the number of points Jr must gain on DJ each race if everything was static. That could be 4 positions in a race or it could be 6 positions........depends on where in the finish each driver is!

DJ wrecks first lap at Chicago and Jr lucks out and wins, Jr gains 151 points on DJ. The other side of that is Jr wrecks and DJ wins, DJ extends his lead over Jr by 151 points.

You just can't use stats to bolster an argument in a points system like NASCAR uses..........everything gets all turned over at the the checkered flag in every race.
Click to expand...


Not sure what I am wrong about. I was disputing Shadowflames comments. Junior's average finish over the next 9 races is 17.2. If he has that kind of run there are 8 drivers either just behind or directly in front of him that will more then likely have a better average finish them him relegating him out of the top ten.
 
There are too many variable to predict with any certainty. I think we can all agree that not only would he have to pick up his performance from what it has been but those in front of him would have to experience multiple problems if he were to get into the top 10.
We've had several drivers all say that they feel that top 10 would probably be all that gets in. That 11th on back would be more than 400 points out after 26.
So he has a huge hill to climb and may miss the chase - gosh darnit - :D.
I still think that NASCAR will make an exception and allow the favorite driver in the Chase rationalizing it as being the "fans" choice by vote. :eek:
 
barelypure said:
I still think that NASCAR will make an exception and allow the favorite driver in the Chase rationalizing it as being the "fans" choice by vote. :eek:
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You can't be serious.
If Jr had dominated Saturday night the way Tony did you'd be the first to cry conspiracy.
 
That would not happen. Not in a million years. Sponsors would not let it happen. Owners would not let it happen. It just will not happen.
 
N2racin88 said:
How's the foot taste? The average finish over the next 9 races is 17.2.
:puffin:
Click to expand...

i was looking at the top tens he has in the upcoming races.
 
I like the Chase. There is always something to look back at and forward to. Remember the year Kenseth won (likely the whole reason for the Chase), it was pretty much decided in July or August and the rest of the year was BORRRRING! That won't happen anymore.
 
So Junior doesn't make the Chase --- big deal. So Jeff Gordon doesn't make it either -- big deal.

There are also 2 former champs that won't make it either --- Kenseth and Labonte. Why doesn't anyone in the media talk about them?

You've got to know that all the media attention Junior gets frustrates him to no end. After all, every time some media type shoves a mike in his face he's reminded that his season sucks hind tit.
 
I don't usually see any point in taking part in these type of discussions, but just had to say that I totally agree with TRL's comments. Good for you.
 
GoDJ said:
I like the Chase.
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you like it because dale jarrett in on it, wait till he gets knocks out of it you'll love it even more right???
 
TexasRaceLady said:
So Junior doesn't make the Chase --- big deal. So Jeff Gordon doesn't make it either -- big deal.
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it is a big deal, dale jr is the face of nascar right now, imagine him not been in the picture? same thing with jeff gordon.

now you said kenseth and labonte wont make it, right you are,,both kenseth and bobby labonte haven't done much to notice they are good enough to make the chase, i mean it goes all the way back to last year...how good did they do?...not much really...
 
every time some media type shoves a mike in his face he's reminded that his season sucks hind tit.
Click to expand...

And, he can't even say hind tit without losing points.
Which brings up another question, Tony said "damn" in his post race, is that allowed? Is he looking at losing points? :growl:
 
barelypure said:
Which brings up another question, Tony said "damn" in his post race, is that allowed? Is he looking at losing points? :growl:
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well since damn is not beeped out on television like **** is and **** is so he shouldnt lose any points... since jr. said **** and you cant say **** then he gets points taken away.
 
shadowflames said:
you like it because dale jarrett in on it, wait till he gets knocks out of it you'll love it even more right???
Click to expand...

I digged it last year. If he makes it then it just adds to my interest even more.
 
I would be the happiest person in the world if he doesn't make the chase!
 
If Jr don't make the chase Nascar wont fold up and go broke. Jr is the face of Nascar? Only because of the last name. And that alone makes Jr the face of Nascar.
 
I have a question.

How come the worst driver of NASCAR history is the most beloved?
 
Tony_Stewart said:
How come the worst driver of NASCAR history is the most beloved?
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Let's see. NASCAR is an awfully big association with a number of different divisions. Just how would one know who is the worst driver of the thousands out there? Hmmmm? This thread has gone in the direction of Junior and if your statement is somehow directed towards him you need to take your flame starter elsewhere. We do not need to start that kind of crap here.
 
N2racin88 said:
Let's see. NASCAR is an awfully big association with a number of different divisions. Just how would one know who is the worst driver of the thousands out there? Hmmmm? This thread has gone in the direction of Junior and if your statement is somehow directed towards him you need to take your flame starter elsewhere. We do not need to start that kind of crap here.
Click to expand...


Amen, friend.

Let's keep the discussion civilized.
 
Gollum said:
Jr is the face of Nascar? Only because of the last name. And that alone makes Jr the face of Nascar.
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yeah pretty much, when there is a race...what color do you see when they put the camera on the fans?...all red my friend and when dale jr ever leads..who goes crazy? i'll answer that for you...EVERY soul in there so its obviously that dale jr is key in NASCAR.
 
shadowflames said:
yeah pretty much, when there is a race...what color do you see when they put the camera on the fans?...all red my friend and when dale jr ever leads..who goes crazy? i'll answer that for you...EVERY soul in there so its obviously that dale jr is key in NASCAR.
Click to expand...


Absolutely true, shadow, but let's not forget it is the media that is promoting all the red you see. I'd be willing to be the farm that Junior wishes it would leave him alone, and let him do his job.
 
I like the Chase too. :) I liked it last year and I like it this year and this whole thread is about my favorite in real danger of not making it! :D

What I used to hate many seasons was a Championship won with a good third of the season to go...........and it happened a lot before the Chase fixed that. Every season I would hope and pray for a tight points race to the end of the season.....the vast majority of the time I was disappointed. It's just not exciting when you know the end before the final chapter. And it would really get bad when all a driver had to do was show up and coast to the Cup........even on a few occasions, really didn't even need to show up (though, thankfully, that never happened........but it was a just matter time).

I watch races for the excitement. I watch the whole season for the excitement. Now the season is guaranteed to be just as exciting as the races. I think the majority of fans feel the same way. Even the "old timers" like me. :)
 
I will agree that there is a lot of red in the stands. Kahne may have a few fans. Mayfield, probably 1 or 2. Maybe some others. The bulk of the red are wearing #8 gear, I'll give you that. But, red is the one color that will stand out in a crowd over all other colors. So it is really not surprising that when crowd shots are shown they appear red. White and even pastel colors will absorb some of the red hue when viewed at a distance due to reflection.
But, no argument from me that #8 has a lot of bandwagon fans...
 
He must not find it all that hard to have cameras in his face or wouldn't be in every other commercial on the speed channel and Fox when they're airing races.

The thread didn't turn towards him, it was started about him.
 
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