Silly Season 2025

Naitch said:
Mike Wallace has absolutely no chance of winning that race.
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Don't think I would bet a dime on Mike Wallace winning, but I wouldn't have bet a dime on Harrison Burton winning either. But like I said, just making the highest paying race of the year is a jackpot for that team if they get in the field. As was said, Cope made a bundle when he sold his charter. It would be foolish to think he doesn't have a chance to make the field in a race that requires the least amount of driving skill in the series and Cope buying Childress equipment.
 
I always bet long shots for the Daytona 500 because the race is a crapshoot and requires almost no actual talent to win. I made a bundle off of Ricky Stenhouse and Michael McDowell both, largely because with each of them, you could easily see the potential. We're discussing a Mike Wallace entry for the same reason that Mark Thompson, DJ Kennington, 2022 Jacques Villeneuve, and 2024 Travis Pastrana all took whacks at it. Anyone on this forum in a decent piece could make the Daytona 500.
 
Mike Wallace winning would be the biggest upset in the history of NASCAR. Daytona is usually a wreck fest, so I wouldn't completely rule him out.
 
Are we just ignoring that Burton showed promise on plate tracks in Xfinity or does that not fit the “plate races are a lottery” narrative?

Making it to the end can be a crapshoot but you actually need some degree of talent to actually pull off a win. Mike Wallace could lead to the white flag and he would end up getting freight trained.
 
Naitch said:
Are we just ignoring that Burton showed promise on plate tracks in Xfinity or does that not fit the “plate races are a lottery” narrative?
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This is true of just about anyone who's had sufficient starts in NASCAR's national touring series. It's true of Anthony Alfredo. It's true of Brendan Gaughan. It's true of Cody Ware. It's as though driving talent is not a necessary component of being competitive in a plate-style race.
 
virtualbalboa said:
This is true of just about anyone who's had sufficient starts in NASCAR's national touring series. It's true of Anthony Alfredo. It's true of Brendan Gaughan. It's true of Cody Ware. It's as though driving talent is not a necessary component of being competitive in a plate-style race.
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Watch a few plate races and notice that you often see the same names up front. In a true lottery, that doesn’t happen.
 
aunty dive said:
It isn’t?
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Not really, no. If you hand me a decent car and give me someone who I can ride behind so I don't lose the draft, I can ride around at Daytona or Talladega long enough to be in the mix at the end. You could too.
 
virtualbalboa said:
Not really, no. If you hand me a decent car and give me someone who I can ride behind so I don't lose the draft, I can ride around at Daytona or Talladega long enough to be in the mix at the end. You could too.
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You, me, and everyone on this forum would wreck the car during qualifying on any track.
 
Naitch said:
You, me, and everyone on this forum would wreck the car during qualifying on any track.
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No. We'd all handle it with ease. It would be as difficult as going down the freeway. I know this because every driver who has raced these things in this manner says exactly that. We have literal children taking selfies while running practice laps at plate tracks.
 
Naitch said:
You, me, and everyone on this forum would wreck the car during qualifying on any track.
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I agree. Going around at 190 MPH isn't easy at all. Remember when Derrike Cope ran the Daytona 500 a few years ago? He lasted 3 laps. And plate tracks are supposed to be the easiest ones on the schedule.
 
JJ_14 said:
I agree. Going around at 190 MPH isn't easy at all. Remember when Derrike Cope ran the Daytona 500 a few years ago? He lasted 3 laps. And plate tracks are supposed to be the easiest ones on the schedule.
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I also remember he was so slow it was scary the speed difference when the field lapped him
 
Guys, Marty Robbins qualified for the Daytona 500 in an era of bias ply tires, actual car chassis from a factory, open face helmets, and 60+ cars showing up. You realize it is a lot easier now when there's 41 or 42 cars showing up for 40 spots, the cars are planted to the track with piles of downforce, and the engine is intentionally detuned to keep speeds way down, right?

F*CK, wasn't there a guy who made one of the Daytona or Talladega races in the 1970s who was under an assumed name and had no known racing experience? That was then! It's easier now!
 
JJ_14 said:
I agree. Going around at 190 MPH isn't easy at all. Remember when Derrike Cope ran the Daytona 500 a few years ago? He lasted 3 laps. And plate tracks are supposed to be the easiest ones on the schedule.
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All it takes is one slip up and the back end is coming around and you’re going into the wall. It’s easy to attack the talent of the drivers but the average person could not step into a Cup car and be remotely competitive at any track.

The average Joe would make a midpack ARCA driver look like the second coming of Dale Earnhardt.
 
Naitch said:
All it takes is one slip up and the back end is coming around and you’re going into the wall. It’s easy to attack the talent of the drivers but the average person could not step into a Cup car and be remotely competitive at any track.

The average Joe would make a midpack ARCA driver look like the second coming of Dale Earnhardt.
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Midpack ARCA drivers are basically average joes now anyways. After you get past the kids who TRD is paying to be there for experience, it's just a bunch of late model guys who want to live out a super speedway fantasy and are 25 mph off the pace.
 
virtualbalboa said:
it's just a bunch of late model guys who want to live out a super speedway fantasy and are 25 mph off the pace
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I would argue that a late model guy is still light years ahead of your average Joe in terms of car control.

I’m not saying that qualifying for the Daytona 500 is exceptionally hard. If you give an HMS or JGR car to someone like Cody Ware, he would have a shot at a pole. It’s just not something that the average person can do.
 
It’s a little busy out there at 200 mph in traffic while you’re being buffeted by “the breeze”.

virtualbalboa said:
Not really, no. If you hand me a decent car and give me someone who I can ride behind so I don't lose the draft, I can ride around at Daytona or Talladega long enough to be in the mix at the end. You could too.
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I’ve run a few races at 135 mph in heavy traffic … I think I’m qualified to extrapolate that to a 200 mph scenario. I can assure you that with no previous experience you would most certainly not be in the mix at the end.
 
Naitch said:
I would argue that a late model guy is still light years ahead of your average Joe in terms of car control.

I’m not saying that qualifying for the Daytona 500 is exceptionally hard. If you give an HMS or JGR car to someone like Cody Ware, he would have a shot at a pole. It’s just not something that the average person can do.
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We're not talking about Bubba Pollard here. We're talking about guys who ran CRA or a local track 20 years ago somewhat competitively that otherwise work in an office and manage payroll. They're not special people who have some sort of incredible talent. They're just people who are throwing a lot of money at the hobby of racing. Some of them were good. Some of them were 60+ with one eye.
 
aunty dive said:
It’s a little busy out there at 200 mph in traffic while you’re being buffeted by “the breeze”.


I’ve run a few races at 135 mph in heavy traffic … I think I’m qualified to extrapolate that to a 200 mph scenario. I can assure you that with no previous experience you would most certainly not be in the mix at the end.
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We wouldn't be having this discussion if there wasn't a 65 year old man ten years removed from any racing getting ready to strap in for a chance to make the Great American Race. The only reason I or you might not be there at the end isn't because it is so tough to pull a Dale Jarrett and ride around the back until everyone else crashes. It's because we might get hit with a pit road penalty. That's the only part that requires any sort of driver input where talent might play in.
 
Naitch said:
Watch a few plate races and notice that you often see the same names up front. In a true lottery, that doesn’t happen.
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It does happen, happens all of the time when one of the front runners gets out of shape and takes out the top 5....or more. See Stenhouse, Keselowski, Joey.
 
aunty dive said:
It’s a little busy out there at 200 mph in traffic while you’re being buffeted by “the breeze”.


I’ve run a few races at 135 mph in heavy traffic … I think I’m qualified to extrapolate that to a 200 mph scenario. I can assure you that with no previous experience you would most certainly not be in the mix at the end.
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Of course not, since no one here would qualify anyway.
 
Naitch said:
Watch a few plate races and notice that you often see the same names up front. In a true lottery, that doesn’t happen.
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1) Some drivers choose to stay at the back
2) Running up front isn't the same as crossing the finish line first

No, it's not a true lottery, but luck plays a bigger role at the plate tracks than at other venues.
 
Charlie Spencer said:
Gaughan was always a solid fantasy pick for plate races. As @Blaze noted, he was one of those drivers who only ran limited races, and he usually turned in a decent finish.
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You don't need to tell me. The last time he ran Daytona I put money on him at something like +7500. Why not? Dude sucks and he's there because his dad doesn't want him screwing up the South Point. But he's got a pile of money for good equipment thanks to his dad owning South Point and he knows plate tracks are the only ones he can be competitive in, so he's gonna push there. The connective tissue of "They're a plate track specialist" is they are dogs#it everywhere else when the competition's speed isn't limited to match their car's speed. The drivers and teams both know that, so they're gonna be extra aggressive and try to run up front. Corey LaJoie sucks lmao like it's not like he's magically smarter than everyone else when it comes to maneuvering in the air, he's just going as hard as humanly possible because if he wins, he gets in the playoffs and saves his career and gets people to pretend he is better than he is (like everyone else who only has ever won plate races). Jimmy Spencer got a long career out of being Ryan Preece w/two plate wins.
 
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