So who benefits?

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With Kyle and Kurt having there problems, that more than likely opens up 2 more chase spots. Granted, they will not likely be contenders, but they will be a big deal for a couple weeks for squeaking in. The question is, who gets the benefit of those 2 spots? I'll guess Menard and Jamie Mac.
 
That's a tough question with so many drivers/teams that were close, I'll go with Greg Biffle, Truex
 
Bobw said:
Kind of early to be throwing them under the bus isn't it?
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Kyle is going to be out so long that even when he eventually notches a win, he'll be outside the Chase cutoff for top 25 in points.

Nobody outside the NASCAR offices knows the conditions Kurt will have to meet to get reinstated.

Who benefits? The Ganassi cars.
 
Menard for one. I picked him to be a surprise Chase driver last year, and I think the same thing this year.

The others that I think could benefit the most from their absence Chase-wise: Biffle, Larson, McMurray, Dillon, Allmendinger.

I don't think Bowyer will take a Chase slot due to the Busch brothers being MIA. I expect him to run a solid 8th to 12th in the points.
 
The interesting question would be what if David ragan won at a plate track in the 18 car. Where does that leave Kyle at the end of the season if that indeed got them In the chase but with David ragan
 
hidesert cowboy said:
The interesting question would be what if David ragan won at a plate track in the 18 car. Where does that leave Kyle at the end of the season if that indeed got them In the chase but with David ragan
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Remember, even if a driver wins a race, he must also be in the top 25 in points after 26 races. If he or she is outside the top 25, it doesn't matter how many wins he has. If Ragan can win one AND stay in the top 25, he's in. Kyle isn't going to run enough races to stay in the top 25; he won't be rehab'ed in time.
 
If Ragan wins in the 18 car, Ragan makes the Driver's chase, and the #18 Team makes the Owner's chase, but the #34 team and Kyle Busch don't make the chase.

I think Truex and Bowyer gets the 15th and 16th seed.
 
hidesert cowboy said:
The interesting question would be what if David ragan won at a plate track in the 18 car. Where does that leave Kyle at the end of the season if that indeed got them In the chase but with David ragan
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That's an interesting thought. If Kyle is ready to come back halfway through the season, but David is chase qualified, do they give David the boot or leave him in the car as long as he stays in the chase? My guess is Gibbs would have to turn the reins over to Kyle, leaving David without a competitive ride for the chase.
 
Switchback said:
That's an interesting thought. If Kyle is ready to come back halfway through the season, but David is chase qualified, do they give David the boot or leave him in the car as long as he stays in the chase? My guess is Gibbs would have to turn the reins over to Kyle, leaving David without a competitive ride for the chase.
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If that happens maybe one of the top teams that has an open ride will give him something, the only team that would even be open at the time would probably be Roush, if they can throw together some sort of deal and sponsorship that is haha.
 
hidesert cowboy said:
The interesting question would be what if David ragan won at a plate track in the 18 car. Where does that leave Kyle at the end of the season if that indeed got them In the chase but with David ragan
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I was wondering about that. IF in this case is a big word but there are 3 plate races.
I think if he won a race to make the playoffs, JGR would have to keep him in the car for the sponsor sake.

They can't run a fourth car this year because they already have 4.
 
Correction: in several posts here I've noted that a driver must be in the top 25 in points to make the Chase, regardless of his number of wins. I was incorrect; the driver must be in the top 30, not the top 25.

I still don't see any way either Busch bro can reach that level this year. Jayski says NBC Sports reports that Ragan will be in the car at least 9 weeks. There's no way Kyle can sit out 25% of the season (at a minimum; likely more) and break into the top 30.

On the other hand, a strong performance in the #18 might give Ragan enough driver points to put him in the Chase even after he returns to the #34.
 
Switchback said:
With Kyle and Kurt having there problems, that more than likely opens up 2 more chase spots. Granted, they will not likely be contenders, but they will be a big deal for a couple weeks for squeaking in. The question is, who gets the benefit of those 2 spots? I'll guess Menard and Jamie Mac.
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Even if they were racing all 36 races, neither was an automatic for the chase. Only one driver has made all 11 chases. As far as who might make it.. there are quite a few who have been in and out over the years who could make it... Biffle (although he made it last year too, as well as Newman), Bowyer, Stewart. Jamie Mac has always been right outside the chase. When we only had 10 chasers, he was 11th. When wins didn't really carry any weight, he had three, and would have easily made it. There are also some newbies who might make it such as Larson. He was close last year... or maybe Austin Dillon, or Menard. Some that made it this year might fall out too.
 
I had Menard and McMurray making the Chase weeks before the season started, so I can't count them as benefiting from the Busch situation(s). Maybe...Allmendinger and Newman?
 
RacerrecaR said:
I had Menard and McMurray making the Chase weeks before the season started, so I can't count them as benefiting from the Busch situation(s). Maybe...Allmendinger and Newman?
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It looks like David Ragan won't be in the #18 for the entire run of Kyle's rehab. If he wins one, the biggest beneficiary will be the #34 team. They're already gaining a multi-week look inside a top-tier organization.
 
Last year after Richmond, the 30th place driver had 407 points. If Kyle missed the first 9 races in a worst-case scenario that would leave him 17 races before the Chase began. That means to reach 407 points, he'd have to average about 24 points per race to reach 30th. That would be the equivalent of averaging about 20th every race and of course winning at least 1 race. Possible? Never know.....a lot would depend on how "racey" he would be after re-hab.
 
MikeInIllinois said:
Last year after Richmond, the 30th place driver had 407 points. If Kyle missed the first 9 races in a worst-case scenario that would leave him 17 races before the Chase began. That means to reach 407 points, he'd have to average about 24 points per race to reach 30th. That would be the equivalent of averaging about 20th every race and of course winning at least 1 race. Possible? Never know.....a lot would depend on how "racey" he would be after re-hab.
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He's going to be out more than 9 races. The team is talking about Eric Jones after Ragan goes back to the #34.
 
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