The battle for those final Chase spots

dpkimmel2001

dpkimmel2001

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The clock is ticking for some out there.....

Eleven drivers have all but locked in their Chase spot. Tony Stewart brings the win total to eleven different drivers having won a race this season. Now that he's made the Chase with his granted Charity Waiver, that puts five drivers on the bubble. Chase Elliott, Ryan Newman, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Austin Dillon, & Jamie McMurray are holding on to those final five positions. Eight races are left to secure a spot in the Chase with a win. Is anyone else going to get a win this season? Who gets in? What do you think?

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I think you have the wrong list up. Instead of just points maybe show the chase list.
 
I think that there is no way that we have 16 drivers win a race.

I think that Chase Elliott is a lock.

I think Newman's going to make it on points.

Dale Jr's in need of a win but I think he'd still make it on points.

I'm thinking that we will have one more new winner over these next eight races. Someone currently outside the Chase picture squeaks in.

I think Dillon is going to be out.

McMurray holds on to a spot in the Chase.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
I think that there is no way that we have 16 drivers win a race.

I think that Chase Elliott is a lock.

I think Newman's going to make it on points.

Dale Jr's in need of a win but I think he'd still make it on points.

I'm thinking that we will have one more new winner over these next eight races. Someone currently outside the Chase picture squeaks in.

I think Dillon is going to be out.

McMurray holds on to a spot in the Chase.
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I agree with most of this but I think It's a tossup between Austin D and Jamie Mc being out.
 
Under the current format it's unwise to write out or in almost anyone as a winner.

Johnson could miss a gear, as he did in Dover, and take out half the field on a restart following a caution for a menacing helium balloon, or something equally as dangerous to the participants and spectators. The door can open for who ever's left intact.

This track, the huge Martinsville, with it's rich history of exciting racing could end up adding an unlikely driver's nation squarely into the elimination thing.
 
When its over and done, I'll say Blaney will replace McMuarray, the rest will stay the same.
 
These next 8 races could be interesting. I see a lot of different winners possible.
Just so everyone is clear here are the next 8 races in order, New Hampshire, Indy, Pocono, Watkins Glen, Bristol, Michigan, Darlington, Richmond.
A lot of not cookie cutters!

I think Kasey Kahne has a chance at New Hampshire, Michigan, and Richmond.
I think Greg Biffle has a chance at Darlington.
I think Indy is a toss up and we could see Paul Menard get another win.
I like Kimmel's call of AJ winning at the Glen.
I think Pocono is Penske or Gibbs/Truex.
Bristol is always a toss up.
I don't see Dale Jr. getting a win for some reason. Maybe at Michigan.
I think Dillon and Jamie Mac might be replaced by two drivers that don't have a win right now and I like Jamie Mac.

We could see some exciting things happen and some guys currently on the list get booted since they don't have a win.
 
The best prediction is "no change" IMO, but I'm rooting for Blaney and Larson find a way in. I'm hoping Dillon gets displaced, and the final spot is a battle at Richmond between the 1 and 31.
 
I am not sure we are going to have another first time winner for 2016 between now and the Chase, Jr and AJ are the only two that I think have a chance, but even then , I am not sure thats going to happen.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
The clock is ticking for some out there.....

Eleven drivers have all but locked in their Chase spot. Tony Stewart brings the win total to eleven different drivers having won a race this season. Now that he's made the Chase with his granted Charity Waiver, that puts five drivers on the bubble. Chase Elliott, Ryan Newman, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Austin Dillon, & Jamie McMurray are holding on to those final five positions. Eight races are left to secure a spot in the Chase with a win. Is anyone else going to get a win this season? Who gets in? What do you think?

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Unless Stewart stays in the top 30 I don't think that he will make the Chase. I think that he will stay but it isn't a given yet.
 
oldgoat said:
Unless Stewart stays in the top 30 I don't think that he will make the Chase. I think that he will stay but it isn't a given yet.
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Several major catastrophic failures is the only thing that will keep him out of the Chase. He's not racing anyone to stay there at this point.
 
I can see Chase snagging Michigan or Pocono his 2nd go-round. Other than that, I think we've got all of our winners already.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
The clock is ticking for some out there.....

Eleven drivers have all but locked in their Chase spot. Tony Stewart brings the win total to eleven different drivers having won a race this season. Now that he's made the Chase with his granted Charity Waiver, that puts five drivers on the bubble. Chase Elliott, Ryan Newman, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Austin Dillon, & Jamie McMurray are holding on to those final five positions. Eight races are left to secure a spot in the Chase with a win. Is anyone else going to get a win this season? Who gets in? What do you think?

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Click to expand...

I think you may see McMurray and Bayne knocked out and replaced by other cannon fodder but in the grand scheme of things drivers that low are in the chase for window dressing and cannot win the lottery.
 
Chase
Newman
McMurray
Blaney
Dillon

Wishful thinking....one of the Roush cars
Dinger at the Glen is a wildcard though.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
With Jr. absence of these three races leading into the Chase, it looks like a new spot had opened up.
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Recasting the current Chase grid points standings to reflect Dale's absence at Indy and Pocono...

McMurray is P15, +29 points above Blaney.
Bayne is in P16, +2 points to Blaney.

Blaney is -2 points from P16.
Kahne is -8 points.
Larson is -11 points.
Stenhouse is -27.
Allmendinger is -29.
 
The rankings below are not official, just the way I see it. Buescher needs to be a wheelman and muscle his way into the top 30 for the below numbers to work.

RK DRIVER POINTS WINS
1 Brad Keselowski -. 727 4
2 Kyle Busch -. 670 4
3 Carl Edwards -. 653 2
4 Denny Hamlin -. 620 2
5 Matt Kenseth -. 600 2
6 Jimmie Johnson -. 578 2
7 Kevin Harvick -. 718 1
8 Kurt Busch -. 689 1
9 Joey Logano -. 652 1
10 Martin Truex Jr. -. 612 1
11 Tony Stewart -. 389 1
12 Chris Buescher -. 292 1
^Drivers above all have a win

13 Ryan Newman -. 562 0 Dont throw away any top ten runs.
14 Chase Elliott -. 561 0 Dont throw away any top ten runs.
15 Austin Dillon -. 559 0 Dont throw away any top ten runs.
16 Jamie McMurray -. 550 0 Dont throw away any top ten runs.

*** Chase for the Sprint Cup cut-off ***
17 Kyle Larson -. 520 0 Must gain points and race hard to win

18 Trevor Bayne -. 512 must win
19 Kasey Kahne -. 509 must win
20 Ryan Blaney -. 502 must win
21 AJ Allmendinger -. 486 must win
22 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. -. 475 must win
23 Dale Earnhardt Jr. -. 461 must win
24 Paul Menard -. 422 must win
25 Greg Biffle -. 416 must win
26 Danica Patrick -. 413 must win
27 Clint Bowyer -. 397 must win
28 Aric Almirola -. 379 must win

I think Stewart, and Buescher gets in.
So Newman, Elliott, Dillion and McMurray have a great chance to make it on points.
Expect good consistent runs from them, low risk no gambling on fuel and tires etc.

Larson needs one of the above to have some bad luck, while maximizing points.
Bayne, Kahne and Blaney had better go all out to win.
Checkers or wreckers make something happen.
Larson probably needs to do the same, as well as Jr if he gets medical clearance.
 
It's down to the consistency guys. I still think consistency counts even for the win and in guys. If a team is consistent week in and week out they'll have a better chance at advancing in the 3-race playoff rounds.
 
We would have a 12 car chase at this point if it was win and your in the chase.

Forget the top 16 or any other rules
 
The excitement just isn't there since they took the way cool names off the rounds.

They'll ban burnouts next then wonder why no one goes or watches anymore.....
 
Charlie Spencer said:
I'll be happy if Jr. is just back in the car before the Chase starts. :huh:
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He is done.....no more driving for Dale as given his history of concussions he will retire as the next time his bell is rung he may be taking the rest of his meals from a straw.
 
I don't know anything about Buescher with respect to whether he can wheel a car or not but if the kid does have some talent it would be nice to see Penske or someone step up and help the kid with a better car for the remaining races and the chase.
 
Skoalbandit33 said:
I don't know anything about Buescher with respect to whether he can wheel a car or not but if the kid does have some talent it would be nice to see Penske or someone step up and help the kid with a better car for the remaining races and the chase.
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Quite simply , if his sponsor or a new sponsor was to pony up the money , I'm sure Penske would be more than happy to sell them a car.
 
He is a Roush driver, you would think with him possible being their only driver in the chase, they would supply him with their best. Nothing wrong with the equipment, they just don't have the drivers to get the most from it. I doubt Penske is going to give anything to their competition.
 
Team Penske said:
He is a Roush driver, you would think with him possible being their only driver in the chase, they would supply him with their best. Nothing wrong with the equipment, they just don't have the drivers to get the most from it. I doubt Penske is going to give anything to their competition.
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Ford may have the last word on whether the young man receives help and where the help comes from.
 
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