Nextel Cup
Kobalt Tools 500 - Atlanta Motor Speedway - Hampton, GA
It might be time to face some hard facts - just three weeks into the 2007 Nextel Cup season. Here are some thoughts to keep in mind as we start week four of the 26-week "regular" season.
1) Jimmie Johnson and the No.48 Lowe's Chevrolet team, the defending series champions, are very, very, very good. Both driver and team have shown that they have the heart, the desire and the ability to win every time they arrive at the track.
It doesn't matter whether they qualify well or poorly. Whether they post fast practice times or slower times. When it comes time to race, Chad Knaus and the team improve the car throughout the race until they arrive at the final 50 laps with a realistic chance to win.
The driver is no slouch either. He never quits, communicates well with the crew to assist in improving his Chevy and when it is time to "get up on the wheel" there might not be anyone, currently driving, who is better.
Johnson just finished off his third consecutive UAW-DaimlerChrysler 400 victory by overcoming a pit-road penalty and driving past his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jeff Gordon and Jeff Burton.
The El Cajon, CA native has rebounded from a disappointing 39th-place finish at Daytona and following last Sunday's win is fourth in the standings.
Johnson has put together some stunning numbers over the first five years of his career. Since his first full-time season in 2002, Johnson has collected 24 wins and 110 top-10s (61.11%) in 180 starts. Even more amazing are 66 top- fives (36.67%). Over the same time frame four-time Nextel Cup champion Jeff Gordon's top-five percentage is exactly the same, while veteran Tony Stewart's is just slightly better at 38.33%.
2) Dale Earnhardt Jr. is NOT a threat to win the 2007 Nextel Cup championship. In fact, he hasn't been a "real" championship challenger since 2004 when the No.8 DEI Chevrolet driver won six times earning 21 top-10s in all and finished fifth overall.
The No.8 Chevrolet team is just not consistent enough to stay with the "big boys" or fastest enough to win enough races to make up for their inconsistencies.
In 2006, "Junior" won just one time and finished 25th or worse five times. The year before that was one win and 13 results of 25th or worse.
Despite an 11th-place finish last week at Las Vegas (which should have been a top-five except for a "rookie" mistake on pit road) the team already has two DNFs.
3) Tony Stewart will be back in the "Chase" in a big way and will challenge for a third championship.
After finishing dead last at Daytona (while having one of the best cars), Stewart has rebounded with a pair of top-10 finishes. He also has averaged five wins per year over the last two years which should put him at or near the top when the "Chase for the Nextel Cup" begins in September.
Stewart has 44 top-10s and 10 wins over the last two seasons and being shut out of last year's "Chase" will only be added motivation to an already emotional driver.
4) Toyota is not ready to win this season.
Not only are they not particularly competitive, other than Dave Blaney, they are struggling just to qualify for races. This situation won't get any better once the 2007 owner points are used to determine the top-35 in points since the Japanese enginemaker has put just 10 drivers into the first three events - three using the champion's provisional.
5) Mark Martin will NOT run every race this season.
He has said he wants to spend time racing with his son and I believe that the bottom line is he will keep his promise.
Now its on to the lightning quick Atlanta Motor Speedway where Kasey Kahne is the defending champion. Kahne started the 2006 race from the pole and beat Martin by 1.928 seconds. It was one of three events that the No.9 Evernham Motorsports driver won after starting on the pole. Kahne started on the pole in Las Vegas, but finished 35th after an accident on lap 252.
Kobalt Tools 500 - Atlanta Motor Speedway - Hampton, GA
It might be time to face some hard facts - just three weeks into the 2007 Nextel Cup season. Here are some thoughts to keep in mind as we start week four of the 26-week "regular" season.
1) Jimmie Johnson and the No.48 Lowe's Chevrolet team, the defending series champions, are very, very, very good. Both driver and team have shown that they have the heart, the desire and the ability to win every time they arrive at the track.
It doesn't matter whether they qualify well or poorly. Whether they post fast practice times or slower times. When it comes time to race, Chad Knaus and the team improve the car throughout the race until they arrive at the final 50 laps with a realistic chance to win.
The driver is no slouch either. He never quits, communicates well with the crew to assist in improving his Chevy and when it is time to "get up on the wheel" there might not be anyone, currently driving, who is better.
Johnson just finished off his third consecutive UAW-DaimlerChrysler 400 victory by overcoming a pit-road penalty and driving past his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jeff Gordon and Jeff Burton.
The El Cajon, CA native has rebounded from a disappointing 39th-place finish at Daytona and following last Sunday's win is fourth in the standings.
Johnson has put together some stunning numbers over the first five years of his career. Since his first full-time season in 2002, Johnson has collected 24 wins and 110 top-10s (61.11%) in 180 starts. Even more amazing are 66 top- fives (36.67%). Over the same time frame four-time Nextel Cup champion Jeff Gordon's top-five percentage is exactly the same, while veteran Tony Stewart's is just slightly better at 38.33%.
2) Dale Earnhardt Jr. is NOT a threat to win the 2007 Nextel Cup championship. In fact, he hasn't been a "real" championship challenger since 2004 when the No.8 DEI Chevrolet driver won six times earning 21 top-10s in all and finished fifth overall.
The No.8 Chevrolet team is just not consistent enough to stay with the "big boys" or fastest enough to win enough races to make up for their inconsistencies.
In 2006, "Junior" won just one time and finished 25th or worse five times. The year before that was one win and 13 results of 25th or worse.
Despite an 11th-place finish last week at Las Vegas (which should have been a top-five except for a "rookie" mistake on pit road) the team already has two DNFs.
3) Tony Stewart will be back in the "Chase" in a big way and will challenge for a third championship.
After finishing dead last at Daytona (while having one of the best cars), Stewart has rebounded with a pair of top-10 finishes. He also has averaged five wins per year over the last two years which should put him at or near the top when the "Chase for the Nextel Cup" begins in September.
Stewart has 44 top-10s and 10 wins over the last two seasons and being shut out of last year's "Chase" will only be added motivation to an already emotional driver.
4) Toyota is not ready to win this season.
Not only are they not particularly competitive, other than Dave Blaney, they are struggling just to qualify for races. This situation won't get any better once the 2007 owner points are used to determine the top-35 in points since the Japanese enginemaker has put just 10 drivers into the first three events - three using the champion's provisional.
5) Mark Martin will NOT run every race this season.
He has said he wants to spend time racing with his son and I believe that the bottom line is he will keep his promise.
Now its on to the lightning quick Atlanta Motor Speedway where Kasey Kahne is the defending champion. Kahne started the 2006 race from the pole and beat Martin by 1.928 seconds. It was one of three events that the No.9 Evernham Motorsports driver won after starting on the pole. Kahne started on the pole in Las Vegas, but finished 35th after an accident on lap 252.
