Truex Jr. - Absolutly schooling these guys/gal on the importance of Stage Points

[LewTheShoe]

I question how many NASCAR fans realize this and what their reaction will be.This might end up being a one year experiment with stage points.Truex is in a great spot.

I think most Nascar fans embrace the concept of a championship format that rewards sustained excellence during the regular season. Making this attribute a "one year experiment" would be a huge mistake IMO.

 

[LewTheShoe]

I caught on to the possibility after about Atlanta. If the top 2 or 3 going into Homestead is clinched after Richmond, you know it's back to the drawing board.

That's impossible. The playoff points can create a cushion that improves your odds of advancing, but you still have to race for it and there are no guarantees. And in the playoff, wins trump points too. Winners during any round always advance.

 

[gnomesayin]

I think most Nascar fans embrace the concept of a championship format that rewards sustained excellence during the regular season. Making this attribute a "one year experiment" would be a huge mistake IMO.

There is obviously no chance that stages themselves will be scrapped. NASCAR likes the way they break up the races and it was apparently an easy sell to the majority of remaining fanbase. Adjustments and tweaks to the number of stages and points distribution will surely be made each and every year by the mad scientists in charge, which could swing the pendulum between season-long excellence and GAME 7 MOMENTS!!! however they see fit each off-season.

 

[Team Penske]

Yup, he could stay home and still win. Or just fire the engine at homestead, complete one lap and park it. It really isnt fun to watch the way he dominates. Qualifies 3rd makes his way to 2nd by lap 30 and wins the stage. Where have we seen this before? he has it figured out for sure.

Not So. The added points gets him to Homestead, after that it is the first car across the finish line, no points involved.

 

[Professur]

Married men ... we understand the new points system. We understand that we are not allowed to understand the new points system. We understand that the instant anyone understands the new points system, it will immediately be withdrawn and replaced by something even more incomprehensible. There is documented proof that this has already happened.

 

[Johali]

Your hair is much darker than I remember.

Lost some weight, got some tats and "Just For Men" is my new best friend.

 

[Zerkfitting]

Truex had been running up front a lot last season too. I think he has had one of the best cars over the last couple years. The points system rewards drivers who run hard all race, not just those who make their move at the end.

There was a time when drivers would have to save their cars for the end of the race. These days they can run all out for the entire race. But as they fine tune the cars and make components closer to the edge of failure so they can move the weight around for an advantage they've started saving the car for the end of the race and the "win and in" deal.

 

[jaqua19]

No strategy. His cars are just ridiculously fast.

Wait till Homestead, when the cars will likely be closer and he'll be racing the cream of the crop.

He's not winning it all, that's a given though.

 

[jaqua19]

Truex had been running up front a lot last season too. I think he has had one of the best cars over the last couple years. The points system rewards drivers who run hard all race, not just those who make their move at the end.

There was a time when drivers would have to save their cars for the end of the race. These days they can run all out for the entire race. But as they fine tune the cars and make components closer to the edge of failure so they can move the weight around for an advantage they've started saving the car for the end of the race and the "win and in" deal.

It's worked for the 48.. still winning more than anyone

 

[HoneyBadger]

In some ways this is true, but there is no comparing the current state of frequent multiple double file restarts and short runs to finish races to prior eras when the best car of the day won the vast majority of the time. It's simply more left to chance who "closes" now.

Not really. If anything, it was more difficult to dominate then than it is now. In the 90s and early 2000s, the complexion of the races changed much more dramatically than they do now. A lot of cars would qualify up front, as in on the pole or top-five, and then fade. With Jeff Gordon, for instance, it was pretty common for him to not be good in the first 10 laps of a run, and then catch fire.

Then there's engine reliability. It was not uncommon in the era of Gordon's dominance for someone to blow the race wide open, and then blow up in the final quarter of the race. There were multiple years where Rusty Wallace would win more races than anyone else by a lot but never be a factor in the championship.

The way this car is, clean air is king and track position is so important. That's why I'm not "blown away" by Truex's dominance like most. That's what this car produces, especially with the horsepower reduction taking corner speed completely out of the equation in Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series racing.

The basics are still the same. Gordon sealed the deal and won races and championships, Truex doesn't. Granted, I think he's a lock for this year's championship though.

 

[LewTheShoe]

Gordon sealed the deal and won races and championships, Truex doesn't.

I don't believe this is correct analytically. Truex doesn't fail to close the deal more often than others who dominate races. According to David Smith, who is in the business of studying Nascar statistics, drivers who lead the most laps go on to win the race just 40% of the time. I don't think Truex's rate of doing that is below 40%.

 

[jaqua19]

I don't believe this is correct analytically. Truex doesn't fail to close the deal more often than others who dominate races. According to David Smith, who is in the business of studying Nascar statistics, drivers who lead the most laps go on to win the race just 40% of the time. I don't think Truex's rate of doing that is below 40%.

There are outliers on both ends.

 

[jaqua19]

Not really. If anything, it was more difficult to dominate then than it is now. In the 90s and early 2000s, the complexion of the races changed much more dramatically than they do now. A lot of cars would qualify up front, as in on the pole or top-five, and then fade. With Jeff Gordon, for instance, it was pretty common for him to not be good in the first 10 laps of a run, and then catch fire.

Then there's engine reliability. It was not uncommon in the era of Gordon's dominance for someone to blow the race wide open, and then blow up in the final quarter of the race. There were multiple years where Rusty Wallace would win more races than anyone else by a lot but never be a factor in the championship.

The way this car is, clean air is king and track position is so important. That's why I'm not "blown away" by Truex's dominance like most. That's what this car produces, especially with the horsepower reduction taking corner speed completely out of the equation in Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series racing.

The basics are still the same. Gordon sealed the deal and won races and championships, Truex doesn't. Granted, I think he's a lock for this year's championship though.

Bingo. Gen 4, this wasnt an issue either

 

[HoneyBadger]

I don't believe this is correct analytically. Truex doesn't fail to close the deal more often than others who dominate races. According to David Smith, who is in the business of studying Nascar statistics, drivers who lead the most laps go on to win the race just 40% of the time. I don't think Truex's rate of doing that is below 40%.

I think it is. His car has been far and away superior to the rest of the field by a lot for the last year and a half now.

He's led over a thousand laps and has 14 stage wins this year and only has three race wins. That's a failure to close. Johnson has three wins and hasn't been anywhere near as dominant as Truex. Larson, Stenhouse and Keselowski have two wins and also haven't been dominant in any way.

And with the Gen-6 car, things seem to favor the lead, dominant car much more than with any other car. Clean air is more important than ever, it's harder to pass, corner speed makes no difference because of HP reduction, and drivers tend to just blow the races away like we've never seen.

If Kyle Busch had not crashed at Indianapolis, we probably would've had a driver lead every lap in a race for the first time since 2000, and the 2000 deal was because of restrictor plates.

 

[LewTheShoe]

I think it is. His car has been far and away superior to the rest of the field by a lot for the last year and a half now.

He's led over a thousand laps and has 14 stage wins this year and only has three race wins. That's a failure to close. Johnson has three wins and hasn't been anywhere near as dominant as Truex. Larson, Stenhouse and Keselowski have two wins and also haven't been dominant in any way.

And with the Gen-6 car, things seem to favor the lead, dominant car much more than with any other car. Clean air is more important than ever, it's harder to pass, corner speed makes no difference because of HP reduction, and drivers tend to just blow the races away like we've never seen.

If Kyle Busch had not crashed at Indianapolis, we probably would've had a driver lead every lap in a race for the first time since 2000, and the 2000 deal was because of restrictor plates.

The statistics show otherwise. Here is what NBS Sports published today about this...

Martin Truex Jr. is at the head of the bunch, having led the most laps six times. All three of Furniture Row Racing’s wins – Las Vegas (150 laps), Kansas (104 laps) and Kentucky (152 laps) – are among those six races.

Do the math... 3 / 6 = 50% and 50% > 40%.

(Link to NBC Sports article)