Anyone here really think we'll have 16 different winners by the time the Chase begins?

dpkimmel2001

dpkimmel2001

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I'm guessing 13 by fall Richmond. I haven't gone back to look at stats, yet, but I'd think that's a rarity to have that many different winners by the end of the 26th race. That is when the pointless point system will come into play. While we're quick to disregard them now, they'll be pretty important come September.
 
I agree with the OP.
 
Well so far we have seven different winners at seven different tracks. It'd be interesting to see just how many people are able to get into The Chase on wins.
 
Does this mean drivers with wins really are slacking off? Did Brad give 100% in chasing down Logano in the closing laps before the caution? Who knows. Personally, I think we get our first repeat winner in the next 2 races (I say 2 because I want Gordon to win :D) unless of course Gordon & Johnson win the next 2 :p. We still have drivers like Stewart, Kenseth, Khane, Johnson, Gordon, Hamlin and Biffle who haven't won. Then there's the dark horse plate winners. Then there's guys like Ambrose who could steal one at a road course. Of course there's Larson who has been in the hunt all year. It's entirely possible to have 16 different winners but I doubt it.
 
The only relative newcomer's to the wins list are Jr and Logano. Denny, Tony, JJ, Matt usually get a win sometime in the year. If Harvick didn't have so many problems, he could have 3 wins already.

It's hard to say what 7 different winners means.
 
Here's some stats that I just calculated for over the past 10 seasons.....

Number of different winners in the first 26 races by year.....

2013 - 13
2012 - 14
2011 - 15
2010 - 11
2009 - 13
2008 - 10
2007 - 14
2006 - 12
2005 - 12
2004 - 12

Number of races run before a repeat winner by year.....

2013 - 6 - Jimmie Johnson
2012 - 5 - Tony Stewart
2011 - 6 - Kevin Harvick
2010 - 3 - Jimmie Johnson
2009 - 2 - Matt Kenseth
2008 - 3 - Carl Edwards
2007 - 4 - Jimmie Johnson
2006 - 3 - Jimmie Johnson
2005 - 6 - Jeff Gordon
2004 - 3 - Matt Kenseth


It certainty looks like there is a method to their madness in the selection of 16 and the win and your in idea.

Numbers are certainly open to be challenged. My head hurts a little trying to calculate this stuff.
 
If not for lacking 1/2 gallon of gas Jr might have 2 wins and Kez still on the outside looking in. Harvick's luck stinks, if not for a hub and then blowing up he might have 2 also.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
It certainty looks like there is a method to their madness in the selection of 16 and the win and your in idea.
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There will be riots if there are 16 winners, and Jr gets knocked out of the chase by a winless regular season points champion.
 
SpeedPagan said:
Well so far we have seven different winners at seven different tracks. It'd be interesting to see just how many people are able to get into The Chase on wins.
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I'm thinking teams take drastic measures around week 20 to get a win to get in the chase
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
I'm not worried about that. He'll be in the top 10 by the time the checkered is waved at Richmond.
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There's a lot of 1.5's on the schedule, and you know what that means. Lots of dog legs and grass to navigate.

That was one of the most surreal incidents I've ever seen. Props to Jr for not making excuses. Drivers do that kind of thing, you know.
 
FenderBumper said:
There's a lot of 1.5's on the schedule, and you know what that means. Lots of dog legs and grass to navigate.

That was one of the most surreal incidents I've ever seen. Props to Jr for not making excuses. Drivers do that kind of thing, you know.
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My driver's a pretty stand up guy. He tells it like it is and owns up to his driver error. That was pathetic though. :(
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
My driver's a pretty stand up guy. He tells it like it is and owns up to his driver error. That was pathetic though. :(
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Funny thing is Kyle took the same line later in the race and got away with it because Jr had plowed the area for him.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
That and his delusional thinking before noon. I don't expect that until after 5pm.
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FenderBumper said:
His facial twitching and uncontrolled eye movements are a dead give away.
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gorilla-giving-the-finger.jpg


:p
 
Had to go back to 2000 to find a season with 10 different winners in the first 10 races. That streak was thwarted by Dale Earnhardt Jr @ Race #11, Richmond.
 
I don't think there will be 16... but I think the chances of going 8-10 different winners to open the season is entirely possible. The way Jeff has been running its only a matter of time... could happen any week. Same for Jimmie. Then there's Hamlin, Kenseth, Stewart... and several more. I expect there to be at least 12 different winners. But I think our first 2 time winner will come pretty soon. The guys who have run well will continue too. So pretty soon those guys will start getting more wins.
 
7 so far. add jeff...jj...denny...matt...tony = 12
ambrose on road course. =13
1 mwr win=14
now all ya need is 2 upset wins ......rookie ...rp track......tires/fuel ....etc =16
 
The last time we had 7 different winners in the first 7 races? 2003. The amount of different race winners after 26 races? 16.

I'm not saying that it will happen for sure, but in a year that has seen so many different competitive teams/drivers, the chances of it happening this year are considerably higher than you may think.
 
Nope, not going to happen. Might get ten or twelve different ones though. Already there are a couple of drivers who don't win much that are in, and there are a bunch who win at least one race a year left.
 
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