Final Four

SlicedBread22 said:
I like to think Joey will make it.. but like I said he hasnt shown the staying power... although they may not be necessary when it comes down to it. Just lately he has been finishing single digits one week and double the next consistently for a little while now.. although about 4/5 of the bad finishes are mechanical, it concerns me nonetheless... however, in the first time around at the tracksthat make up the final 3 before Homestead (Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix) Joey gained the most points. In fact he has gained the most at Texas dating back to the first race there last year. It's going to take wins for him to get there. He can do it, but not on consistency, unless they clean things up by then. It's tough to say right now because most teams are testing setups for the chase and working toward that. They may bring it to the next level when the times comes and I think thats the plan... but based on the season to date.. unfortunately I have to count him out right now. Although it's a tough pick between him and Jr.. Hendrick just has it right now... so many if's and's or but's and shoulda coulda woulda's. It's gonna be good I know that much.
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Here's my thinking on Joey--brought up on NASCAR Radio yesterday. Qualifying will put pressure on other teams during the Chase. Penske has been untouched in qualifying. Joey will have great starting spots. Joey will have a fast car. Penske will have reliability. Joey is not an idiot. Joey to the big show, and could be a HUGE story. I am not just saying this. Dude has arrived, and I think he can win the whole freakin' thing. Still holding out hope for my TRD powered Toyotas---there could be a sleeper in there with the new format. My first three are solid IMO.
 
Revman said:
Here's my thinking on Joey--brought up on NASCAR Radio yesterday. Qualifying will put pressure on other teams during the Chase. Penske has been untouched in qualifying. Joey will have great starting spots. Joey will have a fast car. Penske will have reliability. Joey is not an idiot. Joey to the big show, and could be a HUGE story. I am not just saying this. Dude has arrived, and I think he can win the whole freakin' thing. Still holding out hope for my TRD powered Toyotas---there could be a sleeper in there with the new format. My first three are solid IMO.
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If Penske can deliver on the reliability I have no doubt we'll see just that, but right now its just not there.. although they've gone ona nd on about how they're working on the chase.. and now that they both have 2 wins we'll probably see more of it. I've noticed Todd Gordon has been trying different strategies than ever before, I always thought he was afraid or something.. never took two tires or tried to win on fuel mileage or anything like that... Seriously though I think that guy is about as smart as they come.. any given weekend he can turn a 25th place car from practice into a qualifying machine and a top 5 car for the race... If they get a grip on whatever the mechanical issues theyve been having are and yeah I see them in the running for sure.
 
SlicedBread22 said:
If Penske can deliver on the reliability I have no doubt we'll see just that, but right now its just not there.. although they've gone ona nd on about how they're working on the chase.. and now that they both have 2 wins we'll probably see more of it. I've noticed Todd Gordon has been trying different strategies than ever before, I always thought he was afraid or something.. never took two tires or tried to win on fuel mileage or anything like that... Seriously though I think that guy is about as smart as they come.. any given weekend he can turn a 25th place car from practice into a qualifying machine and a top 5 car for the race... If they get a grip on whatever the mechanical issues theyve been having are and yeah I see them in the running for sure.
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I agree. I think Joey and Brad both will be in almost to the end if not the end.
Feels like a Harvick kind of year but I'm hoping Jeff pulls it off. I do want harvick to win one though. Maybe next year or something.

As far as Brad and Joey, they're both great drivers and seem to have found some magic. As you mentioned, a bit more reliability is really all they need.
 
Great thread.

1. Johnson
2. Brad Kesosomethingoranother
3. JR
4.Jeff Gordan

***Wild card: The Wild thing...
 
JJ
Harvick
Kenseth
Kez
 
blanston said:
I agree. I think Joey and Brad both will be in almost to the end if not the end.
Feels like a Harvick kind of year but I'm hoping Jeff pulls it off. I do want harvick to win one though. Maybe next year or something.

As far as Brad and Joey, they're both great drivers and seem to have found some magic. As you mentioned, a bit more reliability is really all they need.
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I'd be willing to bet if they do both make it to the final round the championship will be decided between them. Just a matter of keepin the cars together until then.
 
SlicedBread22 said:
I'd be willing to bet if they do both make it to the final round the championship will be decided between them. Just a matter of keepin the cars together until then.
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My gut tells me no. This thing has to go through Hendrick.
 
Revman said:
My gut tells me no. This thing has to go through Hendrick.
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Keep in mind Homestead is a mile and a half... I mean Im not sure of the exact numbers but I know Penske has won 3 of them and has run great at all the rest. Im not looking it up and may be missing something but I think Kansas and the 600 are the only 1.5 mile wins for Hendrick. Not that those numbers are the deciding factor, but I think Penske has been better as a whole on that track type. If both Brad and Joey make the final four... its not all of the Hendrick cars they'll have to contend with, only 2... and thats assuming the other 2 will be Hendrick (which I do). I'm confident both the Penske drivers will run top 5 all day in that race. Imagine the excitement (and conspiracy) of a late race caution at Homestead. I can't wait... are we there yet?
 
SlicedBread22 said:
Keep in mind Homestead is a mile and a half... I mean Im not sure of the exact numbers but I know Penske has won 3 of them and has run great at all the rest. Im not looking it up and may be missing something but I think Kansas and the 600 are the only 1.5 mile wins for Hendrick. Not that those numbers are the deciding factor, but I think Penske has been better as a whole on that track type. If both Brad and Joey make the final four... its not all of the Hendrick cars they'll have to contend with, only 2... and thats assuming the other 2 will be Hendrick (which I do). I'm confident both the Penske drivers will run top 5 all day in that race. Imagine the excitement (and conspiracy) of a late race caution at Homestead. I can't wait... are we there yet?
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That's a damn good point man.
 
SlicedBread22 said:
Mine are

1. Gordon
2. Johnson
3. Keselowski
4. Earnhardt

Coincidentally the top 4 in the standings right now. With of course and HM for Joey and Harvick, any of these 6 could be there, and I expect it to be that way... I just think the four I posted seem to have more staying power right now.

I'll even go above and beyond and predict Jeff Gordon as the 2014 champion.
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I don't see it happening.
 
FLRacingFan said:
About Gordon winning the title. The format doesn't suit him well. It probably comes down to Johnson vs. Keselowski again.
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I duno man... Im not sure were going to see 3 chasers win in every round.. if he can top 5 it he can be there and Homestead is a pretty good track for him... the champ doesnt have to win the race. But mainly I'm trying to avoid saying JOEY JOEY JOEY! Lol... Because I'm in a good position to be able to... but I figured I'd be more reasonable in my prediction and even Jimmie hasn't run consistent enough for me to think he can dial it in at will. Kez yes, but if you put Jimmie, Brad, Jeff, and Joey in the final four (screw Jr. lol) I wouldn't know who to bet on... I know who I would bet on.. as I'm sure do you... but Jeff has been the biggest surprise for me this year really.. I always knew Joey would become a contender, but I thought Jeff was on his way out.. now I'm not so sure... also.. don't be surprised of Tony Stewart pops up and just robs everyone lol.
 
SlicedBread22 said:
I duno man... Im not sure were going to see 3 chasers win in every round.. if he can top 5 it he can be there and Homestead is a pretty good track for him... the champ doesnt have to win the race. But mainly I'm trying to avoid saying JOEY JOEY JOEY! Lol... Because I'm in a good position to be able to... but I figured I'd be more reasonable in my prediction and even Jimmie hasn't run consistent enough for me to think he can dial it in at will. Kez yes, but if you put Jimmie, Brad, Jeff, and Joey in the final four (screw Jr. lol) I wouldn't know who to bet on... I know who I would bet on.. as I'm sure do you... but Jeff has been the biggest surprise for me this year really.. I always knew Joey would become a contender, but I thought Jeff was on his way out.. now I'm not so sure... also.. don't be surprised of Tony Stewart pops up and just robs everyone lol.
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I think he has a very good chance of making it there, and Homestead is certainly a good track for him. But he's only 16th-fastest on the first two laps after a restart there which I think will hurt him pretty badly. His lone win there in 2012 finished with 106 laps of green to the finish which just isn't going to happen this year. I think most of the field is going to be showing the finalists extra respect (think 2011 with everyone moving over for Stewart and Edwards) so I think a win will almost be necessary to win the title. Especially since the drivers are likely going to be some combination of Johnson, Gordon, Harvick, Logano, Keselowski, and Earnhardt Jr.
 
FLRacingFan said:
I think he has a very good chance of making it there, and Homestead is certainly a good track for him. But he's only 16th-fastest on the first two laps after a restart there which I think will hurt him pretty badly. His lone win there in 2012 finished with 106 laps of green to the finish which just isn't going to happen this year. I think most of the field is going to be showing the finalists extra respect (think 2011 with everyone moving over for Stewart and Edwards) so I think a win will almost be necessary to win the title. Especially since the drivers are likely going to be some combination of Johnson, Gordon, Harvick, Logano, Keselowski, and Earnhardt Jr.
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The restart thing is a really good point.
 
FLRacingFan said:
About Gordon winning the title. The format doesn't suit him well. It probably comes down to Johnson vs. Keselowski again.
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Exactly. Gordon races best for a whole season accumulation of points... not just the 10 last ones & some elimination rounds. This format suites drivers who are either feast or famine.

This could easily be another year where Gordon outscores the champion in points just like 2004 & 2007. Ya know I almost hope someone, if not Gordon, to get knocked out of the first elimination round just to go an a tear for the remaining races and dominate the chase - but not win because he was knocked out early.
 
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At this point I have to count the 48 out.. not that he wont flip a switch and go into super Jimmie mode in a few weeks... but with what's been going on lately on track I've got to say my final 4 are:

Jeff
Harvick
Joey
Jr.

any of which could easily be replaced with Jimmie or Brad

....but this is the order I think they will finish in... obviously hoping its a bit different but with what I've seen these are the 4 strongest teams.
 
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