Has Kevin Harvick (at age 43) Lost A Step?

He was dubbed the closer at RCR. They rarely led a lot of laps with the 29 but he won several races coming out of no where. The Closer has not been a fitting nickname since his start at SHR. The 4 team has thrown a ridiculous amount of wins away after dominating races.
 
Switchback said:
He was dubbed the closer at RCR. They rarely led a lot of laps with the 29 but he won several races coming out of no where. The Closer has not been a fitting nickname since his start at SHR. The 4 team has thrown a ridiculous amount of wins away after dominating races.
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Okay, that's it. That's what I was looking for. You put my thoughts in a more coherent, perfect manner. I only knew of the two crown jewels he stole away. Plus, I felt a little wrong just stepping out there and saying that he doesn't close out races when I wasn't watching in, say, 2005. That's the clarity I needed.
 
gnomesayin said:
Genuine question: did the data ever show Harvick in fact being The Closer to a greater degree than other top drivers? As in, there was a period when anecdotally he gained the rep for taking control of races late and being a clutch performer. Was this statistically true or just the eyeball test?

It seemed to me that the #4 team threw away a lot of victories when he was at his most dominant, but again, that's my eyeball test, and I'm aware that the fastest car wins less than 50% of Cup races.

I'm still leary of judging Harvick's declining performance from 2018 to 2019 as if the driver's ability is the most pertinent variable. There are great momentum racers who excel using this year's rules, and I'm inclined to think that isn't where Harvick's strengths are relative to his other top competitors.
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1) I'm not aware of any data to support Harvick as The Closer. It's anecdotal as far as I know. As others have said, came from the RCR days.

2) Hanging shame on the crew for squandered opportunities is also anecdotal. Harvick has had bad pit stops in this span of 195 races, but so has everyone else. Pit stop problems is one big reason why the average win rate for the fastest car is 40% rather than something much higher. I'm pretty darn sure that bad pit work doesn't fully explain the Harvick 27%, although some (like Kevin hisownself) will say it does.

3) Agreed about 2019 vs. 2018 and the momentum-based drafting package. I thought David Smith's review of data traces... and his comments about 2019 rules negating Harvick's driving advantage... were right on. But is the style of racing going to get better for Kevin? How much time does he have to wait for more favorable rules? Also, he has been very successful in BGN/Xfinity, so he's no stranger to momentum racing.
 
LewTheShoe said:
2) Hanging shame on the crew for squandered opportunities is also anecdotal. Harvick has had bad pit stops in this span of 195 races, but so has everyone else.
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I think bad pit stops early in the race can be overcome but late is a different story and much depends on the drivers mental attitude. I hve noticed few times this year that Kevin doesn't rebound very well. Almost like he gives up.
Maybe he is looking forward to his future career in the booth to much. I think the future of SHR is a bit grim and Armirola is their future.
 
Team Penske said:
I think bad pit stops early in the race can be overcome but late is a different story and much depends on the drivers mental attitude. I hve noticed few times this year that Kevin doesn't rebound very well. Almost like he gives up.
Maybe he is looking forward to his future career in the booth to much. I think the future of SHR is a bit grim and Armirola is their future.
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like Junior Johnson used to say, you ain't laying down on me boy.
 
LewTheShoe said:
1)

2) Hanging shame on the crew for squandered opportunities is also anecdotal. Harvick has had bad pit stops in this span of 195 races, but so has everyone else. Pit stop problems is one big reason why the average win rate for the fastest car is 40% rather than something much higher. I'm pretty darn sure that bad pit work doesn't fully explain the Harvick 27%, although some (like Kevin hisownself) will say it does.

I deff get what you're saying but harvicks crew ruins A LOT of races.

By a lot I mean A LOT a lot.

Did I mention they lose a lot of races for him?

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It was Mike Joy's pathetic attempt to leave a mark in the sport. I remember listening to him being so proud as he announced he was now calling him the closer because, well, reasons.

It never fit, never will. I'm not even sure what a "closer" would be, the guy who wins the most? well that sure isn't or really has never been Kevin. don't get me wrong, I like and cheer for KH but this nickname has been dumb since the day Joy first uttered it.

a better nickname would be "The Bus" you know, the thing he drives over his crew all the time...
 
Before the 600 that year he also won at Fontana and Martinsville in the closing laps. Across those three wins I don't think he led more than ten laps. It sounded good at the time but I don't know why both FOX and NBC need to grab onto one thing and keep pounding it into the ground.
 
Kiante said:
Harvick is still a top 5 driver in the field. Honestly, I'd say top 3. He and Keselowski are toss ups IMO.

Ky. Busch
Logano
Harvick
Keselowski
Truex

All close IMO.
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I'd honestly go

KDB
Kes
Truex
Logano
Harvick

At least this year.
 
I never understood the closer. I guess because he had a nice pass in Fontana & Dale Jr ran out of fuel.

The Closer never made much sense at SHR, I think Kevin & team in combo lost a lot of races in 2014 & 2015.
 
Busch
Logano
Truex
Keselowski
Harvick

Honorable Mention: Elliott, Hamlin (at times can be sneaky good and then 12-15th the next week)
 
LewTheShoe said:
I've always been a guy that likes data. On the job, in my personal life, as a racing fan, all of 'em. Others prefer to to rely on the eyeball test. Sometimes the two agree, sometimes not. So the question is... Is Kevin Harvick still The Closer?

For full year 2018, Harvick had the fastest car, but his #1 rank was just barely better than Kyle Busch at #2. After those two, there was a big gap to the rest.

For the 15 races of 2019, the rank order at the top has flipped... Busch fastest, then Harvick. However, at four races, Harvick was the #1 fastest car... Dover, Kansas, Charlotte, Michigan (and the All Star Race, but not counting that). That's not bad. It's just *slightly* less than last year, but it's still great speed.

Since moving from Childress Racing to Stewart-Haas for 2014, Harvick has driven 195 cup races. He has had the fastest car 48 times, according to David Smith at Motorsports Analytics. Those 48 races resulted in 13 wins... a conversion rate of 27% on days with the fastest car.

The long term cup series average is 40% conversion for the fastest car, so Harvick's 27% is not too spiffy, IMO. What has happened to The Closer?

And this year, Harvick's passing efficiency has slipped in a big way, as discussed in the OP. So if he can't turn that around, it doesn't bode well, IMO.
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You have to have good pit stops and execution. Kyle is a great driver but he also has a fast crew that does not make as many errors.
 
LewTheShoe said:
I thought David Smith's review of data traces... and his comments about 2019 rules negating Harvick's driving advantage... were right on. But is the style of racing going to get better for Kevin? How much time does he have to wait for more favorable rules?
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Great post. I wonder if the definition of GOAT is the driver who can live with a rule package that does not favor him?
 
Greg said:
You have to have good pit stops and execution. Kyle is a great driver but he also has a fast crew that does not make as many errors.
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It sounds good, but then we have Kyle flying back to the lead at Fontana after being buried mid-pack late, and Truex winning the 600 after mistakes and pounding the wall, and then Hamlin taking Texas after back to back speeding penalties.

My guess is he's just not able to make up the ground with this driving style as fast as he could with the last one, while his crew simultaneously makes it harder for him.
 
LewTheShoe said:
1) I'm not aware of any data to support Harvick as The Closer. It's anecdotal as far as I know. As others have said, came from the RCR days.

2) Hanging shame on the crew for squandered opportunities is also anecdotal. Harvick has had bad pit stops in this span of 195 races, but so has everyone else. Pit stop problems is one big reason why the average win rate for the fastest car is 40% rather than something much higher. I'm pretty darn sure that bad pit work doesn't fully explain the Harvick 27%, although some (like Kevin hisownself) will say it does.

3) Agreed about 2019 vs. 2018 and the momentum-based drafting package. I thought David Smith's review of data traces... and his comments about 2019 rules negating Harvick's driving advantage... were right on. But is the style of racing going to get better for Kevin? How much time does he have to wait for more favorable rules? Also, he has been very successful in BGN/Xfinity, so he's no stranger to momentum racing.
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Yes, completely agree with 2 and 3.

The whole closer thing is dumb. But, his 2010 season has the biggest discrepancy statistically speaking from avg start 21.0 to avg finish 8.67 I have ever seen for a championship contender in the modern era. Not sure if he was dubbed that before or after, but he would qualify like crap then come flying up through.
 
Turtle84 said:
It sounds good, but then we have Kyle flying back to the lead at Fontana after being buried mid-pack late, and Truex winning the 600 after mistakes and pounding the wall, and then Hamlin taking Texas after back to back speeding penalties.

My guess is he's just not able to make up the ground with this driving style as fast as he could with the last one, while his crew simultaneously makes it harder for him.
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In those cases 3 JGR cars seems to be the most significant point to me.
 
LewTheShoe said:
For the 15 races of 2019, the rank order at the top has flipped... Busch fastest, then Harvick. However, at four races this year, Harvick was the #1 fastest car... Dover, Kansas, Charlotte, Michigan (and the All Star Race, but not counting that). That's not bad. It's *slightly* less than last year, but it's still great speed.
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Apparently, Kevin Harvick doesn't agree that ranking second fastest overall (and absolute fastest at numerous individual races) gives an elite driver what he needs to have. He's blaming SHR engineering for heading in the "wrong direction" for 2019. Hmmmm.

https://www.motorsport.com/nascar-cup/news/kevin-harvick-winless-streak-frustration/4482648/
“I am beyond all the frustration,” said Harvick... “Honestly we just chose the wrong direction to start the year.

“Our cars weren’t where they needed to be and everyone realizes that as a company... In the end, our cars just weren’t fast enough.

“Not saying that our engineering guys did anything wrong, but it was just the direction wasn’t right to be able to do the things we... are doing on the track. That is what really tells the tale."
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To be fair, Harvick is stating that there has been progress and improvement in the cars during the past month and is citing organizational gains. The Smith numbers seem to indicate he was never lacking for pure speed as much as the results might suggest. I don't know where the exact truth lies. I'm having trouble paying close attention to the intermediate races this year.
 
gnomesayin said:
To be fair, Harvick is stating that there has been progress and improvement in the cars during the past month and is citing organizational gains. The Smith numbers seem to indicate he was never lacking for pure speed as much as the results might suggest. I don't know where the exact truth lies. I'm having trouble paying close attention to the intermediate races this year.
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I agree and they have a new formula(The Package!!!) to deal with on the intermediates so what used to make them fast may not work any more.

I do wish his new nickname could be the bus as i mentioned in the other thread. Referencing the thing he throws his put crew under all the time :)

why not have a nickname that makes ya laugh once and a while :)
 
Madman88 said:
I agree and they have a new formula(The Package!!!) to deal with on the intermediates so what used to make them fast may not work any more.

I do wish his new nickname could be the bus as i mentioned in the other thread. Referencing the thing he throws his put crew under all the time :)

why not have a nickname that makes ya laugh once and a while :)
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Well the pit crew is actually where his frustrations should lie, and with Childers, not the engineers. They've made some absolutely boneheaded calls this year.
 
Madman88 said:
I agree and they have a new formula(The Package!!!) to deal with on the intermediates so what used to make them fast may not work any more.
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I don't understand your comment, because the official scoring loops show that the 4 car *is* fast.

There are plenty of reasons not to read this chart too literally, but I do think it is directionally correct in most cases. Harvick is 43 years old (same age as Jimmie Johnson).

PEER Vs Age 2019 Chart.png
 
I like data-driven analytics in all sports, including racing, as a supplement to what I see and think as a fan. Sometimes there's a difference between what I thought I saw and what actually happened. When data is analyzed properly, there is often some small nugget of insight to be gained. Occasionally this helps to reveal sloppy and/or lazy reporting from the media... for example last weekend at Chicagoland Speedway.

It was amusing to observe Rick Allen and his chattering gerbil sidekicks set up Kevin Harvick's winless season as a major storyline to follow at Chicago. They dutifully regurgitated Harvick's interview sound bytes... the engineers at SHR had taken the wrong direction early in the year, resulting in the 4 car being slow on the track. But now, they said, that has been corrected. The 4 car was fast in practice times both single lap and 5-lap, 10-lap, 15-lap consecutive runs. Harvick was the favorite of the NBC announcers to win the race.

It was, of course, a steaming pile of horse hooey. Over the prior 16 races, the 4 car had great speed, ranking second fastest overall and absolute fastest at four individual races (plus the All Star race). We know this by studying the official lap times, as summarized in this thread. The NBC reporting was sloppy, lazy, and misleading.

When Harvick doesn't win, somebody winds up under the bus... and now it is SHR engineers under there and the NBC analysts are piling on. (It would make more sense for Kevin to speak about his unique driving style and the WFO running prevalent this year... as discussed in post #1 above. Someone from SHR presumably discussed this with David Smith and provided supporting data traces, but Kevin still chooses to victimize SHR engineering.)

As for the Chicagoland race, Alex Bowman was fastest on the day and won the race. Second fastest was Jimmie Johnson, then Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, and Ryan Blaney. Harvick over-drove the entry to turn 1 with 94 laps to go, got into the wall, and finished 14th.

Jimmie Johnson's winless streak is much longer. He has been asked about it countless times, and he always keeps it classy. He says he remains highly motivated, and is working hard, as is everyone at HMS. He never throws anyone under the bus in his public comments. It is a stark contrast, IMO.
 
LewTheShoe said:
There are plenty of reasons not to read this chart too literally,
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Maybe because the two most prolific NASCAR winners won at the same percentage in their forties as they did in their thirties? That would be David Pearson and Bobby Allison...oh and almost forgot, if I remember correctly, a couple of guys named RIchard Petty and Dale Earnhardt Sr. were pretty formidable too when in their forties.
 
LewTheShoe said:
David Smith's review of data traces... and his comments about 2019 rules negating Harvick's driving advantage
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Absolutely the single biggest reason...at least from my perspective. Get rid of the aero and put some muscle under the hood, eliminate the stick'um on the tracks, and oil 'em down....Harvick would be dominate again.
 
StandOnIt said:
Putting oil on the tracks, that's a new one on me, did they do that back in the day? Before Sr could see the air I would guess.
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I was joking...Harvick is a great slick track driver, knows how to drive with a raw egg between this foot and the foot feed.
 
I don't think it matters. Equipment matters more than it did 10 years ago. (hence why drivers like Truex is considered a top tier driver this year)

Harvick may be on a decline, but I think it's on overall team execution, rather than a decline in driver ability. This silly package can minimize driver short comings.

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jaqua19 said:
I don't think it matters. Equipment matters more than it did 10 years ago. (hence why drivers like Truex is considered a top tier driver this year)
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MTJ has been a top tier driver for a few years now. I think beating the rest of the RCR gang, and willing his 78 car to a title over the 18 in 2017 was enough for me to tell how talented he is.
 
“The Closer” is a spin from “Mr. where did he come from?” because Joy was too busy blabbering and not paying attention.

Like DW, he is 10 years over due.
 
AuzGrams said:
MTJ has been a top tier driver for a few years now. I think beating the rest of the RCR gang, and willing his 78 car to a title over the 18 in 2017 was enough for me to tell how talented he is.
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Getting out performed by Bowyer and Montoya in the same equipment is something that I cannot overlook

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