LewTheShoe
Seeking Skill-based Meritocracy... More HP Less DF
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- Apr 21, 2016
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As a fan of Brad Keselowski, I tend to follow his progress closely during cup races. Looking just at the final dozen races of 2018 plus the early portion of 2019, I'd nominate Brad, Paul Wolfe, and the 2 team as "The Real Closer." Over that span of 27 races, Brad won six times, and only once did he have the fastest car on the day (Martinsville 2019). But in each of the other five wins, he had the fastest car in the waning laps, running down the leader and passing for the win.
The best part of this streak was two crown jewel wins at Darlington and Indy. On the flip side, not a lot of stage points were earned in these five wins as Brad's early speed just wasn't that good. But no complaints...it's been a good time to be a Kez fan.
Racing analytics guru David Smith has posted an analysis of "crunch time" speed rankings in The Athletic (link for subscribers). He looks at 2019 speed rankings using all laps vs. just the final 25%. It's a useful premise IMO. The 4th quarter is when races are won or lost. If you're fast in crunch time, then you're usually in the game. If you're fast in the early laps but fail to keep up with the track... no bueno.
Smith's overall finding: There is a lot more speed parity in the 4th quarter than for the race as a whole. The Gibbs #18 leads in both categories, but in "crunch time," the Penske duo (#22 and #2) are right there, followed closely by Harvick's #4 and Truex's #19.
Full race stats indicate Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick have a material speed advantage. But in the 4th quarter, it is a five-way dog fight for best crunch time speed ranking. And Smith highlights some other comers and goers, based on 4th quarter speed rankings that are better (or worse) than the full-race numbers...
Crunch Time Comers:
Impressive late race speed gains by #41 Daniel Suarez, #10 Aric Almirola, and #37 Chris Buescher. Also, all four Penske/Wood Brothers cars, with late-race speed gains leading directly to three wins and two P2 finishes.
Crunch Time Goers:
In addition to Kyle Busch and Harvick losing their gap over the field, Smith highlights late race speed concerns for #20 Erik Jones and #42 Kyle Larson. (Please remember... Smith's speed metric excludes laps that are slowed by crash damage and/or mechanical failures.) Also, all three of the young guns at HMS... Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, William Byron... rank lower in crunch time than for the full race. Smith speculates about youthful inexperience and feedback for in-race adjustments.
Below are the 20 fastest cars in crunch time speed over 15 races of 2019. The numbers shown are speed rankings for full race >> then 4th quarter = improvement or (impairment).
1 JGR#18 4.93 >> 8.27 = -3.34
2 TP#22 7.00 >> 8.53 = -1.53
3 TP#2 7.50 >> 8.67 = -1.17
4 SHR#4 6.00 >> 9.14 = -3.14
5 JGR#19 9.27 >> 9.29 = -0.02
6 SHR#41 14.87 >> 9.80 = +5.07
7 SHR#10 11.20 >> 10.07 = +1.13
8 TP#12 10.67 >> 11.07 = -0.40
9 HMS#9 9.07 >> 11.33 = -2.26
10 CGR#1 11.40 >> 11.67 = -0.27
11 JGR#11 10.50 >> 11.79 = -1.29
12 SHR#14 9.15 >> 12.23 = -3.08
13 HMS#88 12.87 >> 13.14 = -0.27
14 CGR#42 10.60 >> 13.62 = -3.02
15 HMS#48 16.07 >> 14.87 = +1.80
16 JGR#20 11.92 >> 15.57 = -3.65
17 WB#21 18.27 >> 15.80 = +2.47
18 HMS#24 13.93 >> 16.53 = -2.60
19 RCR#3 15.87 >> 16.71 = -0.84
20 JTGD#37 19.93 >> 16.93 = +3.00
The best part of this streak was two crown jewel wins at Darlington and Indy. On the flip side, not a lot of stage points were earned in these five wins as Brad's early speed just wasn't that good. But no complaints...it's been a good time to be a Kez fan.
Racing analytics guru David Smith has posted an analysis of "crunch time" speed rankings in The Athletic (link for subscribers). He looks at 2019 speed rankings using all laps vs. just the final 25%. It's a useful premise IMO. The 4th quarter is when races are won or lost. If you're fast in crunch time, then you're usually in the game. If you're fast in the early laps but fail to keep up with the track... no bueno.
Smith's overall finding: There is a lot more speed parity in the 4th quarter than for the race as a whole. The Gibbs #18 leads in both categories, but in "crunch time," the Penske duo (#22 and #2) are right there, followed closely by Harvick's #4 and Truex's #19.
Full race stats indicate Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick have a material speed advantage. But in the 4th quarter, it is a five-way dog fight for best crunch time speed ranking. And Smith highlights some other comers and goers, based on 4th quarter speed rankings that are better (or worse) than the full-race numbers...
Crunch Time Comers:
Impressive late race speed gains by #41 Daniel Suarez, #10 Aric Almirola, and #37 Chris Buescher. Also, all four Penske/Wood Brothers cars, with late-race speed gains leading directly to three wins and two P2 finishes.
Crunch Time Goers:
In addition to Kyle Busch and Harvick losing their gap over the field, Smith highlights late race speed concerns for #20 Erik Jones and #42 Kyle Larson. (Please remember... Smith's speed metric excludes laps that are slowed by crash damage and/or mechanical failures.) Also, all three of the young guns at HMS... Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, William Byron... rank lower in crunch time than for the full race. Smith speculates about youthful inexperience and feedback for in-race adjustments.
Below are the 20 fastest cars in crunch time speed over 15 races of 2019. The numbers shown are speed rankings for full race >> then 4th quarter = improvement or (impairment).
1 JGR#18 4.93 >> 8.27 = -3.34
2 TP#22 7.00 >> 8.53 = -1.53
3 TP#2 7.50 >> 8.67 = -1.17
4 SHR#4 6.00 >> 9.14 = -3.14
5 JGR#19 9.27 >> 9.29 = -0.02
6 SHR#41 14.87 >> 9.80 = +5.07
7 SHR#10 11.20 >> 10.07 = +1.13
8 TP#12 10.67 >> 11.07 = -0.40
9 HMS#9 9.07 >> 11.33 = -2.26
10 CGR#1 11.40 >> 11.67 = -0.27
11 JGR#11 10.50 >> 11.79 = -1.29
12 SHR#14 9.15 >> 12.23 = -3.08
13 HMS#88 12.87 >> 13.14 = -0.27
14 CGR#42 10.60 >> 13.62 = -3.02
15 HMS#48 16.07 >> 14.87 = +1.80
16 JGR#20 11.92 >> 15.57 = -3.65
17 WB#21 18.27 >> 15.80 = +2.47
18 HMS#24 13.93 >> 16.53 = -2.60
19 RCR#3 15.87 >> 16.71 = -0.84
20 JTGD#37 19.93 >> 16.93 = +3.00