Pre Race: NASCAR Cup Championship

Dr_B_UNC said:
The more I think of it, Chase is the low key favorite. He's been there and done it before. MTJ is just happy to be there, and Larson and Hamlin have tons of pressure on them. Larson to cash in and finish off an amazing season, and Hamlin carries 15 years and a reputation as a choker on his shoulders. We've already seen that Hamlin isn't the strongest mentally. I really think it comes down to the 5 and 9. Any nerves Larson may be feeling will be compensated for by the ice in his crew chief's veins. Should be a fun one!
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I actually think Larson is the underdog in Phoenix based off the spring results. Good thing they have an hour of practice.
 
AuzGrams said:
I actually think Larson is the underdog in Phoenix based off the spring results. Good thing they have an hour of practice.
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Gustafson prepares a hell of a Phoenix car. Wonder how much he'll share with Daniels.
 
AuzGrams said:
I actually think Larson is the underdog in Phoenix based off the spring results. Good thing they have an hour of practice.
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yea I kind of agree with this in as much that it's one race for a championship. ANYTHING can happen. I think the 9 because of the above mentioned Gustafson prepares a good car for Phoenix..... good enough to win there with multiple drivers he has won with in the past. The 9 will be good off the truck. The 5 bunch especially Cliff are cerebral, cool, calm and collected, I dont think the moment will get to them. I dont know what to make of the 19. but MTJ is a top driver, he'll find a way to be up there but I dont know if thats going to beat the HMS fellas. and the 11? Well hes as close as we have to a current gen Mark Martin (Mark was more likable Ill say that), will the moment get to Denny? Its a good group we have, this HMS vs Gibbs Smackdown has been years in the making, I cant wait. For me personally..... I think Chase and the 9 are the favorites in as much as you can be one in this format. They are the reigning, defending, undisputed champions and they did this last year at a time where the world was a bit more weird going on around them. I think they have an excellent shot of repeating. But gosh that fella in the 5 is from another planet.
 
I’m a little worried for Larson. He wasn’t the fastest in Phoenix spring, Richmond, some of the other comparable tracks. We will see. I don’t think Phoenix is his type of track.

I wish they had some sort of seeding headed to the final race.
 
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AuzGrams said:
I’m a little worried for Larson. He wasn’t the fastest in Phoenix spring, Richmond, some of the other comparable tracks. We will see. I don’t think Phoenix is his type of track.

I wish they had some sort of seeding headed to the final race.
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My recollection was that Larson was pretty good at Phoenix in the spring race, but just don't get the finish they should have. So I went back and rewatched the race.

Larson had to start at the back of the field and was 9th by lap 36, but had yellow flag pit road speeding penalty and had to go the back. He drove to 8th by end of stage 1, and up to 2nd place halfway thru stage 2, but he had yet another speeding penalty and this time under green flag so he went down a lap. He unlapped himself and drove to 13 at end of stage 2, then worked his way to 2nd with 57 laps to go. He lost 3 spots on 2 subsequent yellow flag pit stops and restarted final green flag run 5th, but then just didn't have the handling/speed in that final run and faded back to finish 7th.

So I don't think there should be any concern about Larson's speed or grasp on how to drive the Phoenix track, he was fast enough to pass most the field 3 times. Seems they just didn't make the right adjustments there at end.

Since that was only like the 5th race for Larson and Daniels together, and based on their track record the rest of this year, I am hopeful the outcome this time will be better. And of course that Kyle learned a lesson and can avoid the pit road speeding penalties.

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dgbullfrog said:
My recollection was that Larson was pretty good at Phoenix in the spring race, but just don't get the finish they should have. So I went back and rewatched the race.

Larson had to start at the back of the field and was 9th by lap 36, but had yellow flag pit road speeding penalty and had to go the back. He drove to 8th by end of stage 1, and up to 2nd place halfway thru stage 2, but he had yet another speeding penalty and this time under green flag so he went down a lap. He unlapped himself and drove to 13 at end of stage 2, then worked his way to 2nd with 57 laps to go. He lost 3 spots on 2 subsequent yellow flag pit stops and restarted final green flag run 5th, but then just didn't have the handling/speed in that final run and faded back to finish 7th.

So I don't think there should be any concern about Larson's speed or grasp on how to drive the Phoenix track, he was fast enough to pass most the field 3 times. Seems they just didn't make the right adjustments there at end.

Since that was only like the 5th race for Larson and Daniels together, and based on their track record the rest of this year, I am hopeful the outcome this time will be better. And of course that Kyle learned a lesson and can avoid the pit road speeding penalties.

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Still got his ass kicked by Truex right? I think Larson has the momentum, but it’s not like he’s a favorite.

Unforunate that Covid was still a thing and they only had 9,500 tickets available. The Xfinity and ARCA races were decent there in the spring. I just think this should be another race in the playoff, not the finale.
 
AuzGrams said:
Still got his ass kicked by Truex right? I think Larson has the momentum, but it’s not like he’s a favorite.

Unforunate that Covid was still a thing and they only had 9,500 tickets available. The Xfinity and ARCA races were decent there in the spring. I just think this should be another race in the playoff, not the finale.
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Right, once they fixed the early issues with his car, Truex was lights out later in the race. So he definitely has to be confident going into this race. I was just saying Larson was a lot better in that race than I recalled.

I really don't see how anyone is really the favorite. You could make a case for any of them, and anything can happen when it comes down to one race. What happened over the last 35 races doesn't really mean squat at this point, it's what you do on Sunday that matters.

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AuzGrams said:
Youre always getting on my case about something here. Just press the ignore button and leave me alone.
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In your defense, your statement about whatever driver being the favorite..... I didnt think you were wrong. It's a one race format that decides the championship. Theoretically, a driver could have 35 wins and not finish high enough in the last race to win the championship. I guess my point is anything can happen in this last race.
 
Snappy D said:
In your defense, your statement about whatever driver being the favorite..... I didnt think you were wrong. It's a one race format that decides the championship. Theoretically, a driver could have 35 wins and not finish high enough in the last race to win the championship. I guess my point is anything can happen in this last race.
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You haven't said a thing that all of us already know. But saying so an so driver isn't a favorite isn't going to sit well with their fans ANYWHERE. Expecting to get 100% agreement and getting a bent nose out of it when it doesn't happen?
 
AuzGrams said:
It’s all good. I hope Kyle pulls it off, but Phoenix is not like Homestead.
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It is going to be interesting for whomever, a couple of dates, especially practice I don't want to miss, a lot is on the line

Practice: 4:05-4:55pm/et, Friday, November 5 – NBCSN/NBC Sports App
Qualifying: 7:05pm/et, Saturday, November 6 – TrackPass on NBC Sports Gold
 
AuzGrams said:
Youre always getting on my case about something here. Just press the ignore button and leave me alone
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I will do no such thing.

I'm not selective about who I do or do not disagree with. There's nothing special about you, sport.
 
StandOnIt said:
You haven't said a thing that all of us already know. But saying so an so driver isn't a favorite isn't going to sit well with their fans ANYWHERE. Expecting to get 100% agreement and getting a bent nose out of it when it doesn't happen?
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Well my nose is pretty straight I wasn’t bent outta shape in the least. I hope I didn’t come off as expecting everyone to agree, that wasn’t my intention at all. I’m sure if I’d ask 10 fans who the favorite is for Sunday, I’d get 10 different answers.
 
Snappy D said:
Well my nose is pretty straight I wasn’t bent outta shape in the least. I hope I didn’t come off as expecting everyone to agree, that wasn’t my intention at all. I’m sure if I’d ask 10 fans who the favorite is for Sunday, I’d get 10 different answers.
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I wasn't including you in the bent nose crowd. There will be a lot of bent noses after the playoff lottery though. I wish they would have a round of four races (3) and a tie breaker race if there is one. everybody else go home and have a happy Christmas and a merry off season.
 
Dr_B_UNC said:
The more I think of it, Chase is the low key favorite. He's been there and done it before. MTJ is just happy to be there, and Larson and Hamlin have tons of pressure on them. Larson to cash in and finish off an amazing season, and Hamlin carries 15 years and a reputation as a choker on his shoulders. We've already seen that Hamlin isn't the strongest mentally. I really think it comes down to the 5 and 9. Any nerves Larson may be feeling will be compensated for by the ice in his crew chief's veins. Should be a fun one!
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Cliff is ****** sensational.

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Dr_B_UNC said:
Gustafson prepares a hell of a Phoenix car. Wonder how much he'll share with Daniels.
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I'm not sure if you guys remember, but the 5 was stupid fast at Phoenix. Drove through the field two times, was only out of it because of the speeding penalty. But I distinctly remember watching the leaderboard and the 5 had a good tenth and a half or so on the field, even IN traffic, they just fell apart after the second speeding penalty. And that was before they got "hot".


There may be some revisionist history here. Larson was stupid fast, borderline Nashville fast for the first half of Phoenix 1.

I fully expect the 5 to be the fastest car this Sunday, if Phoenix 1 and Nashville car is any indication. But execution and pressure is a different animal.

But if we are talking raw pace? 5 is the clear favorite

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AuzGrams said:
I’m a little worried for Larson. He wasn’t the fastest in Phoenix spring, Richmond, some of the other comparable tracks. We will see. I don’t think Phoenix is his type of track.

I wish they had some sort of seeding headed to the final race.
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He was absolutely the fastest in Phoenix 1 until the second speeding penalty. I'm surprised we are forgetting this.

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jaqua19 said:
He was absolutely the fastest in Phoenix 1 until the second speeding penalty. I'm surprised we are forgetting this.

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Didn’t get the chance to watch. I was in Phoenix for ARCA and X but had to leave due to the Covid restrictions.
 
StandOnIt said:
I wasn't including you in the bent nose crowd. There will be a lot of bent noses after the playoff lottery though. I wish they would have a round of four races (3) and a tie breaker race if there is one. everybody else go home and have a happy Christmas and a merry off season.
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Cold blooded ha ha
 
There's a lot at stake for Larson here, imo. We've been waiting for the next Jeff Gordon/Jimmie/Johnson/truly great champion.

There's no question that Larson's talent has become sort of a nameplate with him, generational talent, etc. But look at the last three truly great transcendent champions. Gordon, Johnson, and Stewart. Didn't matter the circumstances. At their best, you didn't bet against them because they did what they needed to do.

If it was any of those guys in this situation, at their best, it doesn't matter if Elliott is the defending champion. You expect the great ones to get it done.

Larson had exploded this year. The speed is there. Assuming it's there on Sunday, he just needs to do his job, and complete this historic season.

Sunday will determine, imo, if he's just another top tier championship caliber driver, or if he's genuinely destined to be one of the greats like some think he is.

He's changed my mind this year. And even though I can call myself a Larson fan now, I don't quite know if I'm ready to call it a wrap just yet. He has the most to lose here. But Cliff is the best CC in the final 4, imo, Larson has done his job all year.

If the entire team does their job, they should be able to ride their speed to a championship. Larson has all the piece, and all the people, and all the momentum. Can he get it done?

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jaqua19 said:
I'm not sure if you guys remember, but the 5 was stupid fast at Phoenix. Drove through the field two times, was only out of it because of the speeding penalty. But I distinctly remember watching the leaderboard and the 5 had a good tenth and a half or so on the field, even IN traffic, they just fell apart after the second speeding penalty. And that was before they got "hot".
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jaqua19 said:
I'm not sure if you guys remember, but the 5 was stupid fast at Phoenix. Drove through the field two times, was only out of it because of the speeding penalty. But I distinctly remember watching the leaderboard and the 5 had a good tenth and a half or so on the field, even IN traffic, they just fell apart after the second speeding penalty.
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Yes, your recollection is correct. I rewatched the race the other day and he had no trouble just driving thru the field. And he actually drove thru the field 3 times because he started in the back due to failing inspection and was p9 by the competition caution. Then he had 2 speeding penalties one under green flag, and even went down a lap. He drove back up to 2nd place twice including with less than 50 to go.

They must have made a bad adjustment at the end because he just wasn't the same in that last green flag run.



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Nitro Dude said:
Here is a very good reason why Phoenix is the perfect place to finish out the season instead of some where back east. :cool:

weather.com

Phoenix, AZ 10-Day Weather Forecast - The Weather Channel | Weather.com

Be prepared with the most accurate 10-day forecast for Phoenix, AZ with highs, lows, chance of precipitation from The Weather Channel and Weather.com
weather.com weather.com
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Yeah, having the title race at Phoenix is a no brainer IMO. With all the hype and focus they put on this Final 4, imagine the buzzkill when a rain delay postpones the race to Monday
 
2 Sweet said:
Yeah, having the title race at Phoenix is a no brainer IMO. With all the hype and focus they put on this Final 4, imagine the buzzkill when a rain delay postpones the race to Monday
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That's an excellent point. I prefer Homestead, but yeah. Weather risk is too high.

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I think what makes this race so special as well is that it's one of, if not the shortest race of the year. With only 312 laps at 26-27 seconds a lap, this one ticks off pretty quickly and usually is 3 hours max. Definitely adds to the desperation of those chasing a championship here.
 
2 Sweet said:
Yeah, having the title race at Phoenix is a no brainer IMO. With all the hype and focus they put on this Final 4, imagine the buzzkill when a rain delay postpones the race to Monday
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This place would blow up. Look how bad it is here when we have a little rain delay during a regular season race. :)
 
Ideal scenario:
Chase Elliott wins the cup championship with about a 5th place finish
Daniel Hemric wins the Xfinity championship with a 2nd place finish
Matt Crafton wins the truck championship with a 2nd place finish

f*** the playoffs
 
jaqua19 said:
He was absolutely the fastest in Phoenix 1 until the second speeding penalty. I'm surprised we are forgetting this.
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Exactly! Also he was robbed of two wins here with Ganassi by Ryan Newman in 2014 & 2017.
 
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