Which drivers benefit and which drivers will fare worse with the 2021 schedule revamp (and beyond)?

gnomesayin

gnomesayin

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The 2021 schedule breaks down as follows:

4 superspeedway races (one in the playoffs)
13 intermediate races with high downforce / 550 HP (three in the playoffs)
3 intermediate races with low DF / 750 HP (one in the playoffs)
10 short and 1-mile tracks with low DF / 750 HP (four in the playoffs)
6 road courses with low DF / 750 HP (one in the playoffs)

The schedule is still heavy with intermediate 1.5- and 2-mile ovals, but not as much as before. There were 18 high DF / 550 HP intermediates and only 3 road courses in 2020. The overall number of low DF / 750 HP races rises from 14 to 19.
 
13 intermediate races with high downforce / 550 HP (three in the playoffs)
10 short and 1-mile tracks with low DF / 750 HP (four in the playoffs)
The drivers who can manage these races best will win the championship just the same as when the chase was made up of tracks for JJ/Chad.
Road courses will help you get to the final 12.
Superspeedways are junk manufacturers and has shown to be "Lucky"wins
 
Kind of a no brainer. In my case I don't think it makes any difference about small of large tracks, no driver dominates either size. But as we know lately Elliott is the dominator on the road courses. Will somebody else appear to change that? Heck if I know, but Elliott can come from last to first on any road course and he has.
 
Elliott is the obvious answer, yes. To a lesser extent, drivers like Truex and both Busch brothers. Keselowski, Logano, and Harvick have performed well on road courses in the past, with somewhat less success lately, but the skills are there. I would identify Erik Jones as a driver who could capitalize on road courses in lesser equipment. Obviously Allmendinger if he were to get a Cup shot.

Meanwhile, there are playoffs-qualifying drivers this year like Austin Dillon and Aric Almirola who struggle on road courses and will find it harder to points race their way in.

As for the slight shift away from high downforce on ovals, Harvick and the #4 can dominate with either. I would think Kyle Busch would be happier with 2021's mix and will revert to form.
 
Team Penske said:
13 intermediate races with high downforce / 550 HP (three in the playoffs)
10 short and 1-mile tracks with low DF / 750 HP (four in the playoffs)
The drivers who can manage these races best will win the championship just the same as when the chase was made up of tracks for JJ/Chad.
Road courses will help you get to the final 12.
Superspeedways are junk manufacturers and has shown to be "Lucky"wins
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Everybody always says superspeedways are lucky wins but how do you explain the same guys winning them over and over again? I mean I'm always looking for Brad K to chalk another one up at Talledega. You're telling me his success there is just luck?
 
Elliott has a great opportunity to rack up more playoff points, same with MTJ. Not much of a direct impact in the playoffs since those events didn't change, but they should be able to build up more of a cushion and also take more points off of guys like Harvick going in.

Someone like Chase Briscoe has a better chance of being a more impactful rookie than Cole Custer.

Bubba was pretty bad on road courses and Erik raises the ceiling for RPM on those tracks. Maybe with some better peak results they can put themselves more in playoff contention.
 
Where the complexion of the schedule changes most is perhaps in how the road course races are clustered in the summer months. Starting May 23, five of the final 13 races leading into the playoffs are road courses. This will make it very difficult for drivers who perform poorly on them to qualify via points, and if Elliott doesn't sweep them all (not a long shot), create more possibilities of surprise winners that snag a berth.
 
Yeah I see Chase Elliott winning at least 4 of the 6 road course races, I'd not be shocked if he won all 6 tbh. But he's surely winning 4 of the 6.
 
I think Truex Jr is going to be the winner with the schedule as it is next year. He’s just behind Chase it seems like at a lot of the road course stuff... but I figure there being that many tracks where Martin can possibly run top 5 or even grab a win or two will turn into momentum his team can carry onto the rest of the schedule.

That 19 team is one which you give them a little... they can turn it into a lot.
 
Blaze said:
Yeah I see Chase Elliott winning at least 4 of the 6 road course races, I'd not be shocked if he won all 6 tbh. But he's surely winning 4 of the 6.
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Watkins Glen, Roval, and COTA. Truex will win Sonoma. Others are a toss-up. The true "crap, why do we even bother coming here with him" moment would be if Chase could win Sonoma (the only one he's had struggles at). They'll (9) win a 1.5 or two and at least one of the 3 short tracks (2 Martinsville and 1 true Bristol). That would be a 5-6 win season, which I'd gladly take.
 
10-4 said:
Everybody always says superspeedways are lucky wins but how do you explain the same guys winning them over and over again? I mean I'm always looking for Brad K to chalk another one up at Talledega. You're telling me his success there is just luck?
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Over time there have been a few drivers who do well on the superspeedways like Junior and his father before him. Denny has 2 wins in how many tries? No driver these days are consistent winners but a few have numbers better than others. In the meantime there sure have been a lot of 1 time winners mentioned.
 
FLRacingFan said:
Elliott has a great opportunity to rack up more playoff points, same with MTJ. Not much of a direct impact in the playoffs since those events didn't change, but they should be able to build up more of a cushion and also take more points off of guys like Harvick going in.

Someone like Chase Briscoe has a better chance of being a more impactful rookie than Cole Custer.

Bubba was pretty bad on road courses and Erik raises the ceiling for RPM on those tracks. Maybe with some better peak results they can put themselves more in playoff contention.
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RPM needs more sponsor money and they need to spend that money on the cars.
 
To be fair there are simply a lot of good plate racers in the field right now.

Dale Earnhardt was so much further ahead on drafting than a lot of his competition in the 90s. And to put a bit of icing on that... RCR did a ton of plate track testing for the simple fact that Dale was good there and liked those places. They were in a league of their own for awhile.

I would rather watch dega and daytona than the Roval races. Watkins Glen is one of my favorite tracks the series runs... but I really don’t get too hyped about the other road races they’ve ran lately. The Roval is surprisingly a let down in my books.

but thats where alot of us will disagree
 
Chase will have a bank full of playoff points next year as I expect him to win at least half of those Road Course races while winning 2-3 more oval races. He’s the big winner of this schedule. MTJ should also win himself a roadie race or two.
 
I'd take MTJ over Chase every day of the week at any road course. Spare me the stats....Stage racing and strategy play a huge role in road courses. At the most technical road course--Sonoma--Chasey can't touch Martin.
 
Revman said:
I'd take MTJ over Chase every day of the week at any road course. Spare me the stats....Stage racing and strategy play a huge role in road courses. At the most technical road course--Sonoma--Chasey can't touch Martin.
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I mean, we’ll see. But lately Chase has been the King of the Road. MTJ is good as well. Both of them well do great next year. The ones Chase don’t win I could easily see Truex win.


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Revman said:
I'd take MTJ over Chase every day of the week at any road course. Spare me the stats....Stage racing and strategy play a huge role in road courses. At the most technical road course--Sonoma--Chasey can't touch Martin.
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1 out of 6. Good call. Did you bump your head celebrating last night and forget Chase handing MTJ his arse the last couple times they went head to head at WG? At least at the Roval and Daytona Martin wasn’t even in Chase’s zip code. ;)
 
A black helicopter just dropped a foil-wrapped old-school tape recorder on my porch. When I turned it on, I thought I heard "NASCAR added road courses specifically to benefit fan-favorite Chase Ellio - URK" and then it stopped abruptly. I tried to replay it but the tape turned to smoke and the recorder shorted out.

Very odd.
 
Charlie Spencer said:
A black helicopter just dropped a foil-wrapped old-school tape recorder on my porch. When I turned it on, I thought I heard "NASCAR added road courses specifically to benefit fan-favorite Chase Ellio - URK" and then it stopped abruptly. I tried to replay it but the tape turned to smoke and the recorder shorted out.

Very odd.
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mine lasted until it said unfair advantage, gimmick
 
FLRacingFan said:
Elliott has a great opportunity to rack up more playoff points, same with MTJ. Not much of a direct impact in the playoffs since those events didn't change, but they should be able to build up more of a cushion and also take more points off of guys like Harvick going in.

Someone like Chase Briscoe has a better chance of being a more impactful rookie than Cole Custer.

Bubba was pretty bad on road courses and Erik raises the ceiling for RPM on those tracks. Maybe with some better peak results they can put themselves more in playoff contention.
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Custer has quietly put a solid season together and even though Briscoe will fair well next season... I think he and Custer both excel in the Xfinity cars with less down Force and more horsepower. I think Briscoe will get off to a bit of a slow start off like Custer has this season. Custer is starting to race up more top 15 finishes and is finding himself closer to the front now than before.

As for the Elliott and MTJ discussion, you can throw a blanket over those two as far as I'm concerned. I think Rev forgot Chase had a race winning car at Sonoma in 2019 until his engine expired. As of right now, Elliott is hotter in the RC picture. Don't forget guys like Keselowski, Logano, DiBenedetto, Blaney, more than likely those will be Cindric's limited starts as well. A lot of guys will like the new schedule, some won't.

I'm surprised just how good Jones has been in Cup on road courses. I remember him struggling mightly with them in Xfinity. He will fair better than Bubba in that aspect, for sure. Bubba has improved on them, even noted how well he faired at the Daytona Roval, however he's far too inconsistent lap time wise to be a threat yet.
 
Acting like the road courses will simply belong to the 9 or 29 next year is more than a bit presumptuous. With that many of them there will be some serious effort put into cars for that type of racing next year. There are several other very good road course drivers in the field.
 
Switchback said:
Acting like the road courses will simply belong to the 9 or 29 next year is more than a bit presumptuous. With that many of them there will be some serious effort put into cars for that type of racing next year. There are several other very good road course drivers in the field.
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That’s how road courses have seemingly been since the late 80s in Cup. Which one of two guys would it be? Wallace or Rudd? Martin or Gordon? Now it’s Elliott or Truex
 
Switchback said:
Acting like the road courses will simply belong to the 9 or 29 next year is more than a bit presumptuous. With that many of them there will be some serious effort put into cars for that type of racing next year. There are several other very good road course drivers in the field.
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There has been serious road racers in the field..and that pesky Elliott keeps outrunning them
 
Until further evidence Chase is the best road course driver in NASCAR. If teams prioritize them more and start to catch up with him that may change but team #9 as of now has that crown. Truex is close but I give Chase the clear edge.
 
I don't think there is a doubt right now, Chase Elliott is the GREATEST ROAD COURSE RACER OF ALL TIME. This is on the same level as calling Steph Curry the greatest 3 point shooter of all time, I don't think it's even a question.

Chase has won 5 of 12 road course races in his career. Realistically if NASCAR stays with a 5-6 road races a year strategy that gives him with probably 20 more years in the sport 100-120 more opportunities. I think it's conservative to think he wins 20-30 of those which would blow away anyone else.
 
Switchback said:
Acting like the road courses will simply belong to the 9 or 29 next year is more than a bit presumptuous. With that many of them there will be some serious effort put into cars for that type of racing next year. There are several other very good road course drivers in the field.
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I think you're right in part. Elliott and the #9 are plainly the best in the field on twisties at the moment. However, with it being a much larger part of the schedule, more resources and effort will be devoted to road course programs. It has to. Drivers like Keselowski, Harvick, Logano, both Busches and others have the tools needed to run up front. A few regular drivers don't and never will.

Ironically this would have benefited Bowyer too.
 
Unless Hendrick has road course setup wizzards and the rest of the field doesn't, saying teams will devote more resources and it will be different? Chase and the 9 have been beating the current best teams/drivers that are in Cup with what most will say a slower car. I don't think I have heard anybody say for years that Hendrick cars are faster than the other two brands. I really think some need to watch Elliott on a race course..smooth operator, smoothest I have ever seen and he is driving a barge. The new car is supposed to be more nimble. That will only help Elliott.
 
LJ7201 said:
Until further evidence Chase is the best road course driver in NASCAR. If teams prioritize them more and start to catch up with him that may change but team #9 as of now has that crown. Truex is close but I give Chase the clear edge.
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Truex is pretty dead in the water without Pearn. Pearn beat Rodney at Sonoma with his call to stay out and it wasn't the first time that happened. Last night Truex's new chief brought him in the pits late and it cost him the race.
 
I've been saying since the day the schedule was announced that adding three road courses per year may add 20+ wins to Elliott's career total. He's awesome on them. I think a handful of other drivers will rise to the occasion too. Yes, teams will have to focus more on them, and more experience over time will raise the level of competition.
 
Chase was an absolute joy to watch at Charlotte, where the layout let me see how he was setting his moves up several turns before he made them.

Yeah, I wish Bowyer would be around to run the three new circuits. Maybe he’ll be the next ringer? :biggrin:
 
Revman said:
I'd take MTJ over Chase every day of the week at any road course. Spare me the stats....Stage racing and strategy play a huge role in road courses. At the most technical road course--Sonoma--Chasey can't touch Martin.
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Stage racing makes the strategy easier. Pit three laps before each break, then count backwards from the end.
 
Charlie Spencer said:
Chase was an absolute joy to watch at Charlotte, where the layout let me see how he was setting his moves up several turns before he made them.

Yeah, I wish Bowyer would be around to run the three new circuits. Maybe he’ll be the next ringer? :biggrin:
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Came across the line right at 4 seconds ahead of Logano (who is no slouch) in second.
 
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