Who is the NASCAR GOAT?

Acs said:
I think Kyle Busch will crack that group when all is said and done. He has a legit chance of breaking Gordon's win record.
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With a much lower win percentage, he'll get there on starts, not frequency. Kyle was dominated by the 48 for decade..only now has he risen to power with the decline of Jimmie, retirement of Stewart, Gordon, Edwards, Kenseth, Jr etc. Johnson had like 15 wins and 0 titles when KB won his first cup race. Kyle has over 14 unanswered wins against Jimmie and Jimmie still has more head to head wins.

You know what these 5 drivers have in common that Kyle doesn't? They TOOK their spot as the best driver in NASCAR from someone and won titles during their reign. Pearson vs Petty, Earnhardt from Petty (DW won titles and races against Dale), Gordon from Dale, Johnson from Gordon (and a lesser Stewart).

Kyle didnt take his place as best from another great, he waited.. he couldn't take it.

Kyle is a talent, one of the most entertaining drivers ever..great for the support but my God is there SUCH a recency bias with him. Kyle is inevitably as a top 7 driver of all time. His ship as potential top 5 driver all time sailed in 2016 though.

Love Kyle. He belongs nowhere near the GOAT discussion though. If he won a title prior to 2015, and repeated in 16, definitely. But he was a distant #2 for over a decade.

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Snappy D said:
so if we break this down by say decade's I'd have to say ( from what I watched as a kid and read)
1970's: Richard Petty
1980's: Dale Earnhardt
1990's: Jeff Gordon...... but its not a slam dunk as you might think. Earnhardt won the 90, 91, 93 and 94 Cups. Late 90's Gordon though eeks it out. 1998 is the most dominant season I have ever seen (08 Kyle Busch, until the Chase started is also pretty dominant. and pick a JJ 5 peat year as well.)
2000's: Jimmie Johnson. Not even debatable...... maybe Tony Stewart. Maybe.
2010's: gosh this is a tough one.. Harvick or Kyle Busch I would say.
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Johnson has 3 titles since 2010 and probably the most wins. Recency bias folks.

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Clutch said:
Yeah Kyle has to be mentioned in any comparisons moving forward from around this moment in time.
He has proven his worthiness IMO
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Tony Stewart won 47 races quicker than Kyle Busch did. He also won 3 titles in that time span.

It's sexy to put Kyle Busch as a GOAT tier driver... Every measurable cup statistic has him well below the top 5. Come on guys.

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Spotter22 said:
Easy, Big Bill France. He gave us everything.
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No that's recency bias.

Whoever invented the wheel is the GOAT... he is the true GOAT but only because Jimmie was slumping during that time and Pearson wasn't full-time back then and most of Kyle's 2581 career wins came in the lower-tier series like the Superbowl and The Open (golf, not tennis)
 
Jimmie Johnson gets my vote, but...

I haven't studied the history of NASCAR and seedings how Earnhardt's crash was only 12 years after I was born, I either didn't watch enough when he was around or I simply dont remember. Really for me, it has to do with what stands out and what I remember the most, so that's my main reason for going with Johnson.
 
LewTheShoe said:
With due respect to @Johali, this thread is no more redundant or repetitive than many others. New and/or unique is not a requirement here.

@Privateer nailed it... it's reasonable to offer a list of the best of their respective eras, but patently impossible to rank the best of one era against the best of other eras. It is often attempted but always comes down to flimsy assumptions and biases, I believe. So my list of Nascar's greatest is arranged in chronological order...

Herb Thomas
Lee Petty
Ned Jarrett
David Pearson
Richard Petty
Cale Yarborough
Bobby Allison
Darrell Waltrip
Dale Earnhardt
Jeff Gordon
Jimmie Johnson
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I agree with this, Kyle needs to get at least 2 more titles (IMO) in the Cup Series. I know with this format and all doesn't exactly help anybody go on a championship streak, but...
 
Speedbowl14 said:
No that's recency bias.

Whoever invented the wheel is the GOAT... he is the true GOAT but only because Jimmie was slumping during that time and Pearson wasn't full-time back then and most of Kyle's 2581 career wins came in the lower-tier series like the Superbowl and The Open (golf, not tennis)
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It’s hard to stay focused, isn’t it?
 
AuzGrams said:
I agree with this, Kyle needs to get at least 2 more titles (IMO) in the Cup Series. I know with this format and all doesn't exactly help anybody go on a championship streak, but...
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...Kyle has been the final four in almost all of the playoffs-styled seasons. I see him getting there, especially now that there is more emphasis on WINNING.
 
Truex_rox said:
...Kyle has been the final four in almost all of the playoffs-styled seasons. I see him getting there, especially now that there is more emphasis on WINNING.
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No I realize that, but the rules are the rules under the system and he's only executed once so far out of the 4 times he's been in Miami. And it looks like he's on track to most likely be in the Final 4 again so we'll see this year if he can get #2 (I would love to finally see one of these guys win at Miami for a 2nd time).

Kyle is a lot like Darrell Waltrip to me.
 
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Bobby Allison and David Pearson are tied in my book. Bobby did more with nothing than any driver in any era. Never really settled into a stable ride, yet won 84 races and a title. Pearson was the epitome of cool. Had a knack for being around the front when it mattered. Just my opinion, that's all.
 
kkfan91 said:
For Jimmie and his team to stay atop their game for 5 straight years besting all of their competition to win 5 straight titles... during an era where the competition is at its highest level. That alone did it for me.
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Titles post-Matt Kenseth do not mean near as much as they do before. Sorry for repeating a regular talking point, but seriously, they don't. A title before NASCAR changed the rules meant you were THE BEST, period. After the changes, it meant you had a nice run at season's end. And the 2017 onwards titles mean even less than the ones from 2004-2016, because we're only valuing performance in one race and ignoring the other 35. Look at last season, Truex, Kyle Busch, and Harvick were all way better drivers last year than Joey Logano. You cannot come up with any argument to state otherwise. Yet, that's irrelevant and Logano is champion because his team had a better car at Homestead. NASCAR is allowed to determine their champions however they want, but it does mean 5-in-a-row Jimmie Johnson titles ado not mean as much when discussing careers as say Dale's run in the early '90s. The irony is that one of the best drivers of the modern era, Kyle Busch, has the most joke championship win in NASCAR Cup racing history. Then you have things like Truex's title win in 2017, where heading into the playoff end of the season, I think "if Truex does not win this title, it is a disgrace", because he was clearly the best guy all year. I should not be thinking that as a fan.

Champions post-Playoffs introduction (no notes after driver means they would've won under new and old system):

2004 - Kurt Busch, pre-2004 rules: Jeff Gordon
2005 - Tony Stewart
2006 - Jimmie Johnson
2007 - Jimmie Johnson, pre-2004 rules: Jeff Gordon
2008 - Jimmie Johnson, pre-2004 rules: Carl Edwards
2009 - Jimmie Johnson
2010 - Jimmie Johnson, pre-2004 rules: Kevin Harvick
2011 - Tony Stewart, pre-2004 rules: Carl Edwards (2-time champ)
2012 - Brad Keselowski
2013 - Jimmie Johnson
2014 - Kevin Harvick, pre-2004 rules: Jeff Gordon (7th title win)
2015 - Kyle Busch, pre-2004 rules: Kevin Harvick
2016 - Jimmie Johnson, pre-2004 rules: Kevin Harvick (3-time champ)
2017 - Martin Truex Jr.
2018 - Joey Logano, pre-2004 rules: Kyle Busch
 
Privateer said:
Titles post-Matt Kenseth do not mean near as much as they do before. Sorry for repeating a regular talking point, but seriously, they don't. A title before NASCAR changed the rules meant you were THE BEST, period. After the changes, it meant you had a nice run at season's end. And the 2017 onwards titles mean even less than the ones from 2004-2016, because we're only valuing performance in one race and ignoring the other 35. Look at last season, Truex, Kyle Busch, and Harvick were all way better drivers last year than Joey Logano. You cannot come up with any argument to state otherwise. Yet, that's irrelevant and Logano is champion because his team had a better car at Homestead. NASCAR is allowed to determine their champions however they want, but it does mean 5-in-a-row Jimmie Johnson titles ado not mean as much when discussing careers as say Dale's run in the early '90s. The irony is that one of the best drivers of the modern era, Kyle Busch, has the most joke championship win in NASCAR Cup racing history. Then you have things like Truex's title win in 2017, where heading into the playoff end of the season, I think "if Truex does not win this title, it is a disgrace", because he was clearly the best guy all year. I should not be thinking that as a fan.

Champions post-Playoffs introduction (no notes after driver means they would've won under new and old system):

2004 - Kurt Busch, pre-2004 rules: Jeff Gordon
2005 - Tony Stewart
2006 - Jimmie Johnson
2007 - Jimmie Johnson, pre-2004 rules: Jeff Gordon
2008 - Jimmie Johnson, pre-2004 rules: Carl Edwards
2009 - Jimmie Johnson
2010 - Jimmie Johnson, pre-2004 rules: Kevin Harvick
2011 - Tony Stewart, pre-2004 rules: Carl Edwards (2-time champ)
2012 - Brad Keselowski
2013 - Jimmie Johnson
2014 - Kevin Harvick, pre-2004 rules: Jeff Gordon (7th title win)
2015 - Kyle Busch, pre-2004 rules: Kevin Harvick
2016 - Jimmie Johnson, pre-2004 rules: Kevin Harvick (3-time champ)
2017 - Martin Truex Jr.
2018 - Joey Logano, pre-2004 rules: Kyle Busch
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As a fan...it’s crappy I think this way. But our mindsets are 100% aligned on your post. Everything post 03 has really screwed up some driver legacies. I thought Gordon got jipped by the gimmicks...Harvick isn’t too far behind.
 
And under the current rules NASCAR has to determine a champion, the 2016 Champion would've been Dale Earnhardt Jr.
 
Snappy D said:
As a fan...it’s crappy I think this way. But our mindsets are 100% aligned on your post. Everything post 03 has really screwed up some driver legacies. I thought Gordon got jipped by the gimmicks...Harvick isn’t too far behind.
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I agree. Harvick has really been screwed over by the new points systems. Everybody likes to talk up Kyle Busch (and his age relative to how much he has left in the tank), but Kevin is superb.
 
jaqua19 said:
With a much lower win percentage, he'll get there on starts, not frequency. Kyle was dominated by the 48 for decade..only now has he risen to power with the decline of Jimmie, retirement of Stewart, Gordon, Edwards, Kenseth, Jr etc. Johnson had like 15 wins and 0 titles when KB won his first cup race. Kyle has over 14 unanswered wins against Jimmie and Jimmie still has more head to head wins.

You know what these 5 drivers have in common that Kyle doesn't? They TOOK their spot as the best driver in NASCAR from someone and won titles during their reign. Pearson vs Petty, Earnhardt from Petty (DW won titles and races against Dale), Gordon from Dale, Johnson from Gordon (and a lesser Stewart).

Kyle didnt take his place as best from another great, he waited.. he couldn't take it.

Kyle is a talent, one of the most entertaining drivers ever..great for the support but my God is there SUCH a recency bias with him. Kyle is inevitably as a top 7 driver of all time. His ship as potential top 5 driver all time sailed in 2016 though.

Love Kyle. He belongs nowhere near the GOAT discussion though. If he won a title prior to 2015, and repeated in 16, definitely. But he was a distant #2 for over a decade.

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Kyle is 33. These guys are finished products and retired. Arbitrarily deciding that anything he does in his prime years and later years in his career doesn’t count reeks of bias and is goofy as heck. Sr. Stopped winning titles when Gordon was on the scene, Gordon stopped winning titles when JJ and Smoke was on the scene. And when Hendrick wasn’t the top team anymore JJ has been beaten by Harvick, Kyle, Brad, Logano, and Truex. Does this invalidate all these champion’s careers? That’s like saying Tom Brady isn’t the goat because half of his rings came when Peyton was past his prime/retired. Or that MJ isn’t the goat because he didn’t start winning rings until the bird Celtics broke up, Bad Boys pistons fell off the map, and magic retired due to aids. Of course these guys are way ahead of Kyle they all retired into their 40s and he’s only 33 lol. He’s still got a decade to go to see where he measures up. And titles/wins count the same in the cup series regardless of whether JJ is relevant or not
 
Speedbowl14 said:
It's an off week and this has been discussed on this board dozens and dozens of times before.

I'm just here to have a good time :cool:

UPDATE: I found the thread we last discussed this in, wayyyyy back in April of this year https://racing-forums.com/threads/best-of-the-decades.67446/#post-1553411
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That’s exciting.... about as exciting as the Driver X appreciation thread, Silly Season thread, Hey NASCAR listen to your fans thread and Has “Driver X” lost a step.” I don’t feel the need to bitch about everything that goes on in these parts, Especially on an off week when I’m sure traffic will be slow around here.
 
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AuzGrams said:
No I realize that, but the rules are the rules under the system and he's only executed once so far out of the 4 times he's been in Miami. And it looks like he's on track to most likely be in the Final 4 again so we'll see this year if he can get #2 (I would love to finally see one of these guys win at Miami for a 2nd time).

Kyle is a lot like Darrell Waltrip to me.
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This this this this!

Kyle Busch = Darrell Waltrip.

I think they will end up with very similar career numbers.

80-90 wins and 3 titles.

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DaBiff1618 said:
Kyle is 33. These guys are finished products and retired. Arbitrarily deciding that anything he does in his prime years and later years in his career doesn’t count reeks of bias and is goofy as heck. Sr. Stopped winning titles when Gordon was on the scene, Gordon stopped winning titles when JJ and Smoke was on the scene. And when Hendrick wasn’t the top team anymore JJ has been beaten by Harvick, Kyle, Brad, Logano, and Truex. Does this invalidate all these champion’s careers? That’s like saying Tom Brady isn’t the goat because half of his rings came when Peyton was past his prime/retired. Or that MJ isn’t the goat because he didn’t start winning rings until the bird Celtics broke up, Bad Boys pistons fell off the map, and magic retired due to aids. Of course these guys are way ahead of Kyle they all retired into their 40s and he’s only 33 lol. He’s still got a decade to go to see where he measures up. And titles/wins count the same in the cup series regardless of whether JJ is relevant or not
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He's 34. Exactly, Dale stopped when Gordon came on the scene, Jeff when Jimmie did..but Jimmie didn't stop when Kyle came on the scene. He was #2 for a long time and took over later. He couldn't beat the "best" and take his crown as #1. The top 5 drivers all time were able to do this with similar numbers. Kyle is an all timer, easy top 10.
You don't have to like it, call it what you will, but it's just the facts. Nevermind talking about a GOAT. He'll probably fit right above DW and Cale. But if he has similar numbers to the top 5, and is the only driver of those 6 who COULDNT take over when he arrived, he's below them. That's it. What's biased is saying Kyle is a GOAT.

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jaqua19 said:
He's 34. Exactly, Dale stopped when Gordon came on the scene, Jeff when Jimmie did..but Jimmie didn't stop when Kyle came on the scene. He was #2 for a long time and took over later. He couldn't beat the "best" and take his crown as #1. The top 5 drivers all time were able to do this with similar numbers. Kyle is an all timer, easy top 10.
You don't have to like it, call it what you will, but it's just the facts. Nevermind talking about a GOAT. He'll probably fit right above DW and Cale. But if he has similar numbers to the top 5, and is the only driver of those 6 who COULDNT take over when he arrived, he's below them. That's it. What's biased is saying Kyle is a GOAT.

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tell ya what, out of all those above him @ 34 I'll give him the GOAT right now as the Jackass of the bunch. He's won that hands down.
 
I was told that TMZ is looking for some correspondents in various locales.

Not sure about Oklahoma.
 
StandOnIt said:
tell ya what, out of all those above him @ 34 I'll give him the GOAT right now as the Jackass of the bunch. He's won that hands down.
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He's so entertaining though, you can search YouTube compilations and it's basically comedy.

I just don't understand why no one is willing to talk about Kyle as a potential top 6-8 driver all time, as if it's a disservice to the guy. Talking about him as a GOAT tier driver is just one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard. 55 wins and 1 title in 15 years is nice, a handful of drivers were better.


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Championships won should matter a lot regardless of era. I also believe the intangible is important relative to the eye test. What did a driver do with their talent to show amazing reflexes or characteristics in multiple races year after year? How well did a driver compete at every type of track? Combine all that and maybe you come up with the true GOAT. I don’t pretend to know who fits all that, but Jeff Gordon was among the most talented drivers I ever saw. He won everywhere...superspeedways, short tracks, road courses, etc. Made many daring moves that were great combinations of instinct and feel. Gordon was not a guy I pulled for really, but certainly was an amazing driver who closed the deal on championships. You see some of that with Kyle but he also bullies and bludgeons his way too frequently to be considered a GOAT.

Petty was an amazing driver, underrated today by most given the years in the rear view. David Pearson and Bobby Allison also belong in the discussion. Pearson was a great strategist and wheelman. Allison competed in every race he ran, and compiled a great record. I give all those guys an extra measure due to their toughness quotient. It was dang hard to drive and survive in those cars. Today’s drivers have it easy comparatively.

Earnhardt was among the best obviously. Dale could manhandle a race car as well as anyone if it wasn’t dialed in. Jimmy Johnson another who won on anything. He found ways to win. Possibly helped by his sport’s timing relative to his team and the formats, but an undeniable super talent.

Those are my nominees. To me the most talented was Gordon. The GOAT remains Petty. Just my 2 cents.
 
Conover said:
Championships won should matter a lot regardless of era.
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They do matter a lot, but they're not as meaningful now due to how NASCAR crowns the champion. Joey Logano's title win last year is not equivalent to what Rusty Wallace or Bill Elliott each did one year in the '80s because Logano was realistically the 4th-best driver over the course of a season. It's way easier to have the best car for one race versus being the best over the course of 29 to 36 races.
 
Privateer said:
They do matter a lot, but they're not as meaningful now due to how NASCAR crowns the champion. Joey Logano's title win last year is not equivalent to what Rusty Wallace or Bill Elliott each did one year in the '80s because Logano was realistically the 4th-best driver over the course of a season. It's way easier to have the best car for one race versus being the best over the course of 29 to 36 races.
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You talk as if the prior championship format with the Latford points scale was intended to crown the best team and always achieved that... which is ridiculous. The old format was intended to keep the championship close until the end. It systematically under-rewarded the most prolific winners/front runners and propped up the midfield cruisers. The "wrong" team was crowned multiple years under that system.

I don't support every detail of the current system, but I certainly don't miss the "cruise to collect" racing mentality that was incentivized by that Latford system.
 
I find this "championships matter less now" thing exhausted. 15 years.

Guess what? All teams follow the same rules and execute how the prefer to. And guess what? A champion is crowned. This issue is in our minds and our own stubbornness. Record books will show that Logano is a champion. Kyle is a Champion.

Because they are.

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So this thread inspired to do something a little fun.

I typed up an Excel spreadsheet and created a formula to calculate/rank the top 30 winners of all time - my unofficial GOAT ranking. The formula is by no means fool proof, but what it is, is..

The mean of career wins and championships, minus the number of seasons raced, + the number of championships.

(Mean of wins& titles)-(seasons raced)+titles. To factor in the pre-modern era, I doubled the # of seasons for those drivers. Petty's win number made his calculated score a HUGE outlier.. so for him, I decided to make his score the average of the top 4 driver scores + the standard deviation of them.

It was a bit tricky for Kyle Busch, Keselowski, and Logano, champions who aren't very close to being finished. The nature of the formula relies on an almost complete career..using their actual season #s would put them at the top, so I took a guess at how many seasons they would be racing, and it placed them in a more appropriate area. Kyle Busch would maybe be a bit higher, but I'm satisfied with it. As wins and titles cumulate, the formula would bump their ranking score. Active drivers wouldn't be accurate represented until they are finished, or we have an idea of when they will be.

Harvick ranks above Kyle using this formula due to the seasons, but Kyle will only need a few more wins to pass him, and will continue to move up the list.

Edit, didn't realize the 84 typo for Johnson, his score would be 31.25, making him #2. unless he wins again.



Here!

Feel free to make suggestions / add points for non statistical factors, llike talent, competition, woulda coulda, influence etc
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Bob is the GOAT, there, its settled, Bob is always the correct answer......................:lol2::lol2::lol2:
 
Ranking drivers from different eras is a fool's errand, a futile game of juggling flimsy assumptions and biases. Those who claim it's more than that are the real fools.
 
jaqua19 said:
Feel free to make suggestions / add points for non statistical factors, llike talent, competition, woulda coulda, influence etc
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Interesting effort, though I'm definitely in the you can't reliably rank competitors from different eras against each other camp. Also:

1. Why is Richard Petty listed as having raced 70 seasons?

2. You used a formula but then arbitrarily made up a number of seasons for younger current drivers without making up a number of additional wins for them. This doesn't hold up even within the internal logic of your method. You may as well throw out all current drivers.

3. The way to assess greatness, if one is so inclined, is not to divide total accomplishments by the number of years it took to complete them. "Greatness" as it were is concentrated during the peak or prime of a career.

A driver (or competitor in another sport) wasn't less great during his peak because he held on for more unproductive seasons at the end, or more great because he called it quits earlier than others.
 
The King Richard Petty will always be the GOAT in my book.
Something about winning all those races with a steering
wheel wrapped in electrical tape is just badass.
 
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