Will JJ win 106 Cup races and pass Pearson?

ToyYoda

ToyYoda

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After watching Jimmie Johnson thoroughly dominate the proceedings at Pocono today, I was wondering: can Jimmie Johnson get to 106 Cup wins, which would move him past David Pearson for #2 all time?

He's 37 now, and would need 43 more wins to do it. JJ has averaged about 5 1/2 wins per season up until now. Age will probably start to play a factor at some point, but even if he averages 4 wins a year going forward, he could reach 106 in about 10 years, at which time he'd be in his late 40's. Harry Gant and Mark Martin have both had 5-win seasons after their 50th birthday, so age might not be as much a factor as one would expect.

Thoughts?
 
I think it is possibile, but his performance will decline before he turns 45.
If I had to bet, I would be less than 50/50, more like 49/51.
 
TexasRaceLady said:
He could manage it. But I doubt Chad wants to be a crew chief forever. And I think it's the combination of the 2 that's the source of the magic.
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Good point TRL, kinda the same thing that happened with Jeff Gordon and Ray Evernham. Gordon was still very good after Evernham left, even won a championship without him. But the sheer dominance he displayed in the late 90's walked out the door with Evernham.
 
i don't think so but I do think he's the only one who has real shot at 100 wins.
 
Nope. After Chad retires following the 2015 season I suspect his performance will decline at least a bit.
 
BOWTIE GUY said:
some one will come along and be the new hotshot, and he will fade away like Jeffy.
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Don't you mean
9941D9D3-DA50-44F5-B9C9-ABA4BC467B99-2194-00000052933B444B.jpg

?
 
Even if Knaus retires, that in no way means that Johnson wont get an equally good CC - or maybe even a better one.
 
FLRacingFan said:
Nope. After Chad retires following the 2015 season I suspect his performance will decline at least a bit.
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Ehhh, I wouldn't count on it being so soon. The man eats, sleeps, and breathes racing...he's said that even after he's done CC'ing he'll more than likely work behind the scenes at HMS...I doubt he's going completely away anytime soon :D
 
It's a little early to suggest that Kyle Larson will win more races than Jimmie but it's good speculation. The kid certainly is showing promise. There's a few youngsters right now that look like they could be tomorrow's superstars.
 
TexasRaceLady said:
He could manage it. But I doubt Chad wants to be a crew chief forever. And I think it's the combination of the 2 that's the source of the magic.
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When Chad signed his latest contract with HMS, he said he doesn't think he can do it past 2015. He seemed serious, but you never know.

But nobody will ever touch Pearsons lifetime 18.3 win percentage.
 
I am torn about it, I would enjoy the suffering that the 106 would inflict upon the haters.
But I have nothing but respect for Pearson, he may be the best there ever was, I dont want anybody to surpass his win count.
I got to watch him race at Greenville Pickens, and in Winston Cuo, he was one of the giants to me.
 
ToyYoda said:
After watching Jimmie Johnson thoroughly dominate the proceedings at Pocono today, I was wondering: can Jimmie Johnson get to 106 Cup wins, which would move him past David Pearson for #2 all time?

He's 37 now, and would need 43 more wins to do it. JJ has averaged about 5 1/2 wins per season up until now. Age will probably start to play a factor at some point, but even if he averages 4 wins a year going forward, he could reach 106 in about 10 years, at which time he'd be in his late 40's. Harry Gant and Mark Martin have both had 5-win seasons after their 50th birthday, so age might not be as much a factor as one would expect.

Thoughts?
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:XXROFL:

No way.
 
DSquad48 said:
Ehhh, I wouldn't count on it being so soon. The man eats, sleeps, and breathes racing...he's said that even after he's done CC'ing he'll more than likely work behind the scenes at HMS...I doubt he's going completely away anytime soon :D
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Back when he extended his contract in 2010 he said after five more years of it he'd be about done. He's engaged now and wants to become a father soon and I doubt he'll be able to do that working "36-hour days" as he says he's done before.
 
FLRacingFan said:
Back when he extended his contract in 2010 he said after five more years of it he'd be about done. He's engaged now and wants to become a father soon and I doubt he'll be able to do that working "36-hour days" as he says he's done before.
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True, but I do recall him saying something somewhere about possibly pursuing a behind the scenes job at HMS after he's done pulling all-nighters :D Either way, I'm sure Jimmie will be fine without him...maybe he'll get Paul Wolfe :p
 
I dunno, it'd be interesting to see if Jimmie Johnson can pull off the same performance year in and year out without Chad.
 
I hope not. It could happen but I like to think it won't... it's a tall order that's for sure. Look at Gordon.. he's closer by what 25 wins? Not much older and IMO starting to look like his career may be coming to an end before he even gets close. I think the question should be can Jimmie get to 3rd and beat Gordon? That's MUCH more likely than him eclipsing Gordon by 19+ wins in the next 5 or 6 years to get to Pearson.
 
Stewart Fan said:
That's about as likely as me bumping into Kate Upton today after winning the lottery while having dinner with Elvis.
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It's far more likely that Danica will actually win a race than for Johnson to never win another race.

I dunno, I think Johnson could beat Pearson's record, but I think him being eight time champion is more likely. However, I do see him beating Gordon's record.
 
Kahne might inherit the four wheel traction control device next, though, and put Johnson out to pasture...seems like HMS can only bribe enough for one real superstar at a time....(I'm kidding, guys, relax!):moon:

Anyway does anyone know how many races Gordon has won from JJ's age till now? Stats don't mean a thing, but it would be interesting to compare the two. JJ and Gordon are of comparable talent. And that stat will be about as accurate as assuming Johnson will maintain his races to wins ratio.

Eventually, every driver has a last win. That is a certainty.
 
I think JJ drives a looser car than almost anyone in nascar. He's just has so much control he doesn't get sideways lap after lap like KB, Kurt or Biffle. When he's trying to catch someone, you can sometimes see him real sidways but losing no speed.

JJ's one weakness is he tends to over drive the car if he's behind in the chase. He did it in 2011 and a couple of times in the 2012 chase.
 
Could happen, but if that's on his mind then that'll take forever.

Or something worse could happen, such as Sebastian Vettel coming to NASCAR and owning everyone every race...
 
97forever said:
Anyway does anyone know how many races Gordon has won from JJ's age till now? Stats don't mean a thing, but it would be interesting to compare the two. JJ and Gordon are of comparable talent. And that stat will be about as accurate as assuming Johnson will maintain his races to wins ratio.
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Six since the age of 37. Jimmie will win a lot more than that though...he's already won five since turning 37 in September.
 
JJ is in great shape and will be winning races well into his 40's......IF he can find the right replacement for Chad, who will probably be president of HMS by 2016.
 
Like many have said, I sort of doubt it...I would say in the next 5 years his performance will start to decline....he is 37 years old and yesterday marked his 63rd win. While he certainly has plenty of time left to do it....it is hard to keep up the type of performance this team puts out year after year. The "when will Chad leave" question is always looming as well.

I have always thought if Evernham had stayed with Gordon for 5 or 6 more years, he would atleast have one more championship and already be passed 100 wins....but of course you never know...
 
I bet JJ couldn't have won 1/2 the races he won if he had changed teams as often as Pearson had. JJ's got it made at HMS where they always make sure he has the best of everything.
 
dirtguru said:
I bet JJ couldn't have won 1/2 the races he won if he had changed teams as often as Pearson had. JJ's got it made at HMS where they always make sure he has the best of everything.
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Guys like Petty and Pearson didn't average 36 races per year in their careers, it was less than 33 per year. They also dealt with an average of 8 mechanical failure per year, bringing their opportunity to win a race to about 25 times per year.

Petty worked on his own cars, hauled them to the track and often slept in his car, mastered racing on pavement, gravel and dirt often surrounded by no name racers clogging the tracks. Yeah DW, "it was so much easier back when those 2 were winning all them races". :rolleyes:
 
Smoke14 said:
The real question is how many of JJ's wins were accomplished by undetected cheating... ;)
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The same question has to be asked of the old timers, when there was less oversight. Judging by how many times Earnhardt came out of his last pitstop running a few miles faster than he had all day, I think the RCR rocket fuel bill was quite high.
 
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