Pigskin vs. sheet metal. Which will you watch?
That’s the question on a lot of people’s minds as NASCAR’s 2010 Sprint Cup season hits its final three-week stretch.
With just 14 points separating points leader Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick just 38 points behind Johnson, NASCAR has gotten what it wished for when it created the Chase For The Sprint Cup in 2004 and tweaked the format in 2007.
It appears NASCAR will have an exciting and compelling championship race to the finish, just as it did during the inaugural Chase, which Kurt Busch won by eight points over Johnson and 16 over Jeff Gordon.
In 2007, Johnson trailed Gordon by nine points with three races remaining but never in the modern era (since 1971) have three drivers been within 38 points with three races to go.
But the big question: Will anyone other than die-hard NASCAR fans watch?
Can NASCAR’s final three races compete with the NFL, the king of professional sports, in the middle of football season?
Pitting NASCAR vs. the NFL is not really a fair fight. But what is a fair challenge for NASCAR is to stem the tide of declining TV ratings and keep from losing viewers at a time when NFL ratings continue to rise.
No league can match the NFL in TV ratings. Game 4 of baseball’s World Series drew a 10.4 overnight rating Sunday night while the mid-season NFL game between the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers that started 30 minutes later drew an 11.8.
Ratings for Sunday races in the Chase have averaged a 2.4 rating going into Sunday’s race at Talladega, a 25.6 percent drop from last year. The NFL meanwhile is bringing in double-digit ratings for its 1 p.m. telecasts.
While NASCAR can’t compete with the NFL on TV, if it could gain just a few percentage points in the final three races, it would go a long way toward gaining some ground at a time when there appears to be a decline in interest in stock-car racing. If there’s ever a time for NASCAR to nibble at the NFL’s TV dominance, it’s in the next three weeks.
Not only does NASCAR have its closest three-way battle in Cup history, it will race in three top-20 markets to end the season – Dallas/Fort Worth (fifth), Phoenix (12th) and Miami (16th).
The characters in this drama should create interest. It pits Johnson, the four-time defending champion, whom many fans don’t want to see win again, against the driver who nearly 10 years ago had to replace Dale Earnhardt after Earnhardt was killed in the 2001 Daytona 500. Both Johnson and Harvick are California drivers, while Hamlin is from the Richmond, Va., area. The brash, upstart Hamlin adds some youth and spark to the mix.
Both Harvick and Hamlin are more outspoken and controversial than Johnson, and both have had their share of run-ins with other drivers, including teammates, this year.
The trio of drivers represent three of the most notable franchises in the sport – Hendrick Motorsports, Richard Childress Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing.
All three organizations have won Cup championships, although the last RCR title came in 1994, making Childress and Harvick sentimental favorites.
Shouldn’t that drama be enough to interest sports fans? Or will they keep watching the NFL on Sunday, with only casual interest in NASCAR?