Chase getting his second one(and his first when he truly deserves it) would be amazing. He’s led the points(non playoff) basically all year. But nothing sadly is guaranteed. He won one he shouldn’t have. Let’s see if he loses one he shouldn’t have.
Some interesting average finish numbers.
Avg finish over the final 9 races
Bell: 12.2 (11.1 with a win next week)
Logano: 13.4 (12.2 with a win next week)
Chase: 16.4 (14.9 with a win next week)
Chastain: 10.6 (9.7 with a win next week)
Avg playoff finish for champions since 04: 7.14
Worst avg playoff finish: 11.0, 2019 Kyle Busch
So if the previous 17 seasons are any indication, Ross looks like the overwhelming favorites. With Bell still being close. A Logano win (my pick) would be an outlier against this context. An Elliott win, an even bigger outlier.
If avg finish is any indication, Elliott and JoLo could be in trouble and we could be seeing something nuts with Ross.
But it's the season for outliers!
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