Current Drivers HOF Chances

ToyYoda

ToyYoda

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How likely do you think the current crop of drivers are to make it into the NASCAR HOF someday?

I would break them down like this:

Locks: Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski

More than likely: Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Martin Truex, Jr.

Borderline: Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne

Too early to call: everybody at Hendrick but Jimmie, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, Daniel Suarez, Bubba Wallace

Everybody else would be a no.
 
I think Hamlin is a lock, and Truex as well considering he should at minimum end up around 20 wins and has two Busch titles to go with his cup title
 
Anyone who has won a championship in the Jimmie Johnson era is a lock IMO
 
I like Ryan Newman, and Kasey Kahne for that matter, but I don't see how either are borderline HOF drivers unless something radically and improbably changes late in their careers. Maybe their win totals place them close to others who have made it, but stats are unreliable across eras. I've always been of the mind that you can only plausibly compare drivers and athletes to their contemporaries. If they aren't one of the 5-7 best of the era they competed in, they don't belong in a Hall of Fame.
 
Johnson, harvick, and Kurt Busch for sure. Brad, Newman, Denny, Martin, Joey, Dillon, and Kyle need to either win another championship or 500.
 
Newman maybe for his wild string of poles when he was younger


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Biggreen695 said:
Newman maybe for his wild string of poles when he was younger
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It could be argued that in a just system Ryan Newman should have won a championship the year he won 8 races. But that's alternate universe stuff. The Hall of Fame needs to be about some level of sustained excellent performance. Not a couple phenom seasons.
 
gnomesayin said:
I like Ryan Newman, and Kasey Kahne for that matter, but I don't see how either are borderline HOF drivers unless something radically and improbably changes late in their careers. Maybe their win totals place them close to others who have made it, but stats are unreliable across eras. I've always been of the mind that you can only plausibly compare drivers and athletes to their contemporaries. If they aren't one of the 5-7 best of the era they competed in, they don't belong in a Hall of Fame.
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Ryan and Kasey both have 18 Cup wins, which is the same number of wins 2019 nominee Harry Gant had. That's why I figured those two guys are borderline, especially Newman since he has a Daytona 500 win.
 
ToyYoda said:
Ryan and Kasey both have 18 Cup wins, which is the same number of wins 2019 nominee Harry Gant had. That's why I figured those two guys are borderline, especially Newman since he has a Daytona 500 win.
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Gotcha. To my mind as they stand today, electing them would dilute the meaning of the honor a bit too much.
 
Thank you for not mentioning Clint Bowyer in spite of the fact that he has more race wins than Alan Kulwicki.
 
ToyYoda said:
Ryan and Kasey both have 18 Cup wins, which is the same number of wins 2019 nominee Harry Gant had. That's why I figured those two guys are borderline, especially Newman since he has a Daytona 500 win.
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yeah but harry gant is one hell of a lot cooler, I mean the 33 skoal bandit. back when men were men.
 
Other than Johnson, Harvick, and Kyle Busch, the jury is still out on others like Kurt Busch, Kez, and Hamlin.
 
gnomesayin said:
It could be argued that in a just system Ryan Newman should have won a championship the year he won 8 races. But that's alternate universe stuff. The Hall of Fame needs to be about some level of sustained excellent performance. Not a couple phenom seasons.
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Which makes it hard for some folks to justify AK being inducted. AK had an all up hill battle to get to Cup. He made the most of it no doubt. What more could he have accomplished? We'll never know. Racing against RCR, Hendrick, Rousch, Sabates, Junior Johnson and Penske South, he bested all of them in that one year. His only title is still a remarkable feat. "Underdog", no doubt. We probably will never see what he did, ever done again. One if a kind.
 
I'd say anyone who has put together 20 or more wins and a championship is a lock.

Many of these guys are "famous" for many reasons and it is the hall of "fame" so even despite dwindling success in the careers of people like Kahne and Newman I do think theyll get in eventually. Basically every big name driver should be in there eventually. It's going to be around for a long time so 50 years from now there will tonnes of new entries. It'd be harder to come up with the list of drivers who won't make it in imo.

Im curious about the people who have already been nominated but didn't get in when they will get another shot at it.
 
gnomesayin said:
It could be argued that in a just system Ryan Newman should have won a championship the year he won 8 races. But that's alternate universe stuff. The Hall of Fame needs to be about some level of sustained excellent performance. Not a couple phenom seasons.
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It could be argued that Matt Borland figured out how to sneak a bigger fuel cell into the 12 car too.
 
To me the only locks are Johnson, Kyle Busch, Harvick, and keselowski.

Kurt and Truex are right there.
 
hidesert cowboy said:
yeah but harry gant is one hell of a lot cooler, I mean the 33 skoal bandit. back when men were men.
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You won't find a bigger Harry Gant fan here than me, but I've said from the day the HoF was announced that his Cup career was a little shy of what I want to see in a Hall of Famer. MAYBE if you include his 20 some odd Busch wins and his Late Model Sportsman success pre-1982, but I don't feel real good about it. I feel the same way about Neil Bonnett, Ricky Rudd, Davey Allison, Jeff Burton, Greg Biffle and Buddy Baker.
 
ToyYoda said:
How likely do you think the current crop of drivers are to make it into the NASCAR HOF someday?

I would break them down like this:

Locks: Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski

More than likely: Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Martin Truex, Jr.

Borderline: Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne

Too early to call: everybody at Hendrick but Jimmie, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, Daniel Suarez, Bubba Wallace

Everybody else would be a no.
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I can see this happening.
 
Locks: Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski

More than likely: Martin Truex, Jr., Kyle Busch

Borderline: Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott (give him time)

Too early to call: the rookies at Hendrick, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, Bubba Wallace
 
Truex_rox said:
Locks: Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski

More than likely: Martin Truex, Jr., Kyle Busch

Borderline: Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott (give him time)

Too early to call: the rookies at Hendrick, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, Bubba Wallace
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KB is a first ballot Hall of Famer, no question at all. Kyle would get in just on his non-Cup record. Truex will not be denied, he's likely in even if he quits tomorrow. Kind of silly to put Elliott on that list. The potential is clearly there, but you have to actually DO it. The same goes for last seven listed.
 
I think Carl Edwards is the modern Mendoza line for NASCAR drivers getting into the HOF.
 
Formerjackman said:
Truex will not be denied, he's likely in even if he quits tomorrow.
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Truex has fewer wins than everyone who has been named in this thread except those who haven't won like Elliot. If there's any one with a championship who doesn't make it in, right now it would be MTJ. Face it, he's had one maybe two good seasons in his entire career and outside of that he was a borderline backmarker. He'd need to win at least 10 more races before I would put him in.
 
I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I think most everyone else would disagree, at least if they are intellectually honest. We've had a big scrap today over somebody that has numbers below that of even Truex.
 
Johnson, Harvick and Kyle Busch are locks IMO. Probably Keselowski as well.

Denny Hamlin will get in, but I think it takes a few ballots.

Hall of Fame is a place everyone should visit.
 
Acs said:
Truex has fewer wins than everyone who has been named in this thread except those who haven't won like Elliot. If there's any one with a championship who doesn't make it in, right now it would be MTJ. Face it, he's had one maybe two good seasons in his entire career and outside of that he was a borderline backmarker. He'd need to win at least 10 more races before I would put him in.
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Up until two years ago, Truex only had 3 career wins. 80% of his 15 career wins have come in the last two seasons. I think he needs another season or two like last year before he's in for sure.
 
Locks in my mind are Johnson, Keselowski, Kyle and Kurt Busch, and Kevin Harvick. Besides that, I mean MTJ probably gets in because he won a championship, but the rest can come or go. Hell, Bubba Wallace will probably go in for reasons.
 
Has the Hall of Fame ever indicated that they plan on getting away from inducting five drivers every year ?

If not, at the rate they're going, won't pretty much everyone get in eventually ?

Personally, I'd much rather see a system similiar to what the baseball HOF uses.
 
pjmolo said:
Has the Hall of Fame ever indicated that they plan on getting away from inducting five drivers every year ?

If not, at the rate they're going, won't pretty much everyone get in eventually ?

Personally, I'd much rather see a system similiar to what the baseball HOF uses.
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Up to now, the HoF has not inducted 5 drivers per year, more like 3. And the new nominees for 2019 include just 2 drivers. But yes, they have said the process will change at some point.
 
I mentioned this when Carl Edwards retired...keep in mind that it is the NASCAR HOF, not the Cup series HOF.

Guys like Brad, Denny, Truex and Joey should be locks because of what they’ve accomplished across ALL 3 national series. It’s the same reason why imo Biffle and Edwards are absolutely HOFers as well.
 
3wideinturn1 said:
I mentioned this when Carl Edwards retired...keep in mind that it is the NASCAR HOF, not the Cup series HOF.

Guys like Brad, Denny, Truex and Joey should be locks because of what they’ve accomplished across ALL 3 national series. It’s the same reason why imo Biffle and Edwards are absolutely HOFers as well.
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I think that all of these guys double and triple dipping the last 15 years is certainly going to change how we look at certain drivers. I really wish NASCAR would just induct drivers into their specific class, and them induct them multiple times if warranted. Kyle could be inducted in three categories. Junior Johnson could go in as a driver AND as an owner. Ned Jarrett as a driver AND a broadcaster. Mark Martin for Cup AND Busch.
 
Seeing who's already in probably gives insight to who makes it in the future.

Blue font = active drivers.

Guys like Kurt and Kes and anyone above them seem like absolute locks. Truex's 15 career wins are not shown, but I bet he makes it in. Gotta think he could win another 10+ races the next few years.

They're not active anymore, but Edwards and Jr. are interesting cases. Edwards has a good number of Cup wins but not Daytona 500's or Cups. Jr. has no Cups but has two 500's (1 of 11 to do it). Carl has 38 NXS wins and a championship, but almost all of it came as a full-time Cup series driver. Jr. has 2 Busch championships in his pre-Cup days and 24 wins.

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