How would SVG fare in Cup?

Obviously not a big problem, given the results.

Just another difference to deal with … like no Vegemite at the grocery store. 😎
 
The Nature Boy said:
It looks like the hype train for SVG is in full swing. Some are saying he could jump to Cup immediately and be a regular contender. Others are saying that he had an advantage because of his familiarity with street courses.

People on Reddit and Twitter are setting some lofty expectations. What do you say RF?

My prediction (and this may age like milk) is that he would come in and be a competitive driver on road courses immediately but likely struggle a bit elsewhere. Unlike other crossover acts like Tony Stewart (or even Sam Hornish and Danica), his oval racing resume is a bit thin.

It looks like he’d be skipping Xfinity (which Marcos Ambrose didn’t do) so he would have to build his oval racing resume in a Cup car, which is a TON of pressure for someone new to a discipline.

My personal opinion is that he’s a hell of a talent but he’s also falling victim to NASCAR fans setting lofty expectations based on a small sample size.
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For one thing he is no teenager trying to impress every potential sponsor. Having performed at a very high level, I would say he is wise enough to know he does have things to learn and would go about that in a professional manner.
I have given up a lot on Nascar simple because they have gone to kids who pee their pants on every restart and just cause another wreck.
I don't consider SVG to be the same.
Buy the way, did anyone notice that the road course ringers failed to impress?
 
The Nature Boy said:
We have WAY too many data points to show that road course skills don’t always translate.

Could he make the playoffs? Sure, but I don’t think he would be a threat for a championship. If he started next year, he would be 34 in his rookie year so it’s debatable whether or not he ever gets there.
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I think he would get there faster for the simple reason he is older and more mature than the young guys who pee themselves on the restarts.
 
Team Penske said:
I think he would get there faster for the simple reason he is older and more mature than the young guys who pee themselves on the restarts.
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It's going to be a real challenge for him. As we saw in the Truck race, he's starting from square one and will have to put in the work to be a championship contender. Starting later also means that he has less time to get to that point. Maturity only helps so much and a lot of the guys he's competing against have been racing ovals since they were in elementary school.

I've seen WAY too many guys try to move into Cup from other disciplines and fall flat on their face. SVG's biggest advantage is the similarity of the V8 Supercar to an American stock car. In the last 30 years, Tony Stewart is the only guy who managed to go from one high level racing series to a championship contender in Cup. Montoya and Ambrose never quite got there. You can also count AJ Foyt and Mario Andretti in this category but you have to go back a bit to get to them. It's a rare feat to pull off and if SVG can do it, he'll be in elite company.

I think this is the biggest point that SVG's fanboys miss. SVG is attempting to do something INCREDIBLY rare and if he could reach their expectations, it would put him in elite company. And I think SVG realizes the gravity of what he's attempting to do and has no delusions that it's going to be easy.
 
Highly advanced driving simulator technology has changed the game.

He’s had very little sim time. I think he’ll be competitive sooner rather than later. JMO, of course.
 
Team Penske said:
did anyone notice that the road course ringers failed to impress?
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Yes, but that's normal. I think says a lot about Shane's chances for success. It's been a while since ringers finished well. He hung out around 10th most of the race, give or take a couple of positions. Other ringers, some with more Cup experience, ran mostly in the back half. Some of that him having a good car but it puts him well above the average road course part-timer.
 
The Nature Boy said:
It's going to be a real challenge for him. As we saw in the Truck race, he's starting from square one and will have to put in the work to be a championship contender. Starting later also means that he has less time to get to that point. Maturity only helps so much and a lot of the guys he's competing against have been racing ovals since they were in elementary school.

I've seen WAY too many guys try to move into Cup from other disciplines and fall flat on their face. SVG's biggest advantage is the similarity of the V8 Supercar to an American stock car. In the last 30 years, Tony Stewart is the only guy who managed to go from one high level racing series to a championship contender in Cup. Montoya and Ambrose never quite got there. You can also count AJ Foyt and Mario Andretti in this category but you have to go back a bit to get to them. It's a rare feat to pull off and if SVG can do it, he'll be in elite company.

I think this is the biggest point that SVG's fanboys miss. SVG is attempting to do something INCREDIBLY rare and if he could reach their expectations, it would put him in elite company. And I think SVG realizes the gravity of what he's attempting to do and has no delusions that it's going to be easy.
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Devil's Advocate: Ambrose and Montoya, were they to be beamed into 2023 from earlier in the century, would be more valuable now and more of a "contender" today than back then. Fewer cars on track to compete with + clear advantage on road courses. I doubt either would be below the cutoff line for a playoff berth in the seasons they won races.
 
virtualbalboa said:
Devil's Advocate: Ambrose and Montoya, were they to be beamed into 2023 from earlier in the century, would be more valuable now and more of a "contender" today than back then. Fewer cars on track to compete with + clear advantage on road courses. I doubt either would be below the cutoff line for a playoff berth in the seasons they won races.
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If your end goal is just to make the playoffs then that's fine. It helps your financial bottom line at least. You might be able to pile up enough of a playoff point cushion to get out of the Round of 16 and then win at the Oval to sneak into the Round of 8 but I think that'd be the ceiling and a very unlikely one at that. In all likelihood, SVG would be out after the Round of 16.
 
The Nature Boy said:
If your end goal is just to make the playoffs then that's fine. It helps your financial bottom line at least. You might be able to pile up enough of a playoff point cushion to get out of the Round of 16 and then win at the Oval to sneak into the Round of 8 but I think that'd be the ceiling and a very unlikely one at that. In all likelihood, SVG would be out after the Round of 16.
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After listening to the YouTube clips of the Hamlin podcast w/McDowell, that's exactly my thought process. Series payouts are tied to owners points and owner's points are accumulated just like driver's points. So if you have a guy who can get you into the Playoffs by winning a road/street race, that's more important than having a guy who can keep the car clean but doesn't have a stylistic advantage over his competitors on any type of circuit.
 
And once you get that one win, you're guaranteed to finish no worse than 16th on the season. Win the D500, finish dead last in the remaining 35 races, still 16th at the end.
 
The Nature Boy said:
It's going to be a real challenge for him. As we saw in the Truck race, he's starting from square one and will have to put in the work to be a championship contender. Starting later also means that he has less time to get to that point. Maturity only helps so much and a lot of the guys he's competing against have been racing ovals since they were in elementary school.

I've seen WAY too many guys try to move into Cup from other disciplines and fall flat on their face. SVG's biggest advantage is the similarity of the V8 Supercar to an American stock car. In the last 30 years, Tony Stewart is the only guy who managed to go from one high level racing series to a championship contender in Cup. Montoya and Ambrose never quite got there. You can also count AJ Foyt and Mario Andretti in this category but you have to go back a bit to get to them. It's a rare feat to pull off and if SVG can do it, he'll be in elite company.

I think this is the biggest point that SVG's fanboys miss. SVG is attempting to do something INCREDIBLY rare and if he could reach their expectations, it would put him in elite company. And I think SVG realizes the gravity of what he's attempting to do and has no delusions that it's going to be easy.
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Another thing his fans, particularly supercar fans seem to miss, is that talent doesn't move the needle as much as they think it does, particularly in NASCAR because of how technical the sport has become, how close driver talent is, and how thick and tight the field is.


His talent made a big different at Chicago. At Indy? His difference was that of a really great cup road racer. Finished top 10 with a car that seemed about top 13 on pace.

SVG will likely be a top 3 "talent" in NASCAR by the time he gets to full time cup.

That doesn't make you a top 3 contender. Not in NASCAR. Supercars fans genuinely expect him to be a championship contender in a year or two, and think NASCAR fans underestimate how good he is.

But they don't realize talent is only a small factor in performance. They'll be surprised when he takes a top 12 car in the field, and likely hovers top 15 in the points by the time he hits his prime.

Him being a perineal playoff driver, 1-2 wins per year on road courses with an oval sprinkled in here and there, round of 8 contender is his ceiling...


Which is really ****** good.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
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