Kyle Busch the early favorite to win 2018 MENCS Championship

Discussion in 'NASCAR chat' started by NJJammer, Nov 28, 2017.

  1. NJJammer

    NJJammer Team Owner

  2. Mispeedway15

    Mispeedway15 Team Owner

    Gonna go with Kyle Larson, I think the Camaro is gonna be a game changer
     
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  3. NJJammer

    NJJammer Team Owner

    It's yet to be seen, but if the Camaro turns out to be as dominant as the Camrys were this year, I'd put money down on Larson too.
     
  4. StandOnIt

    StandOnIt Farm Truck

    recent changes of adding downforce to the rear of the cars should bring the Fords back on line also. I don't think the advantage the yota's have had the last couple of years will be the story next year. I hope all three brands get close and we have a driver war.
     
  5. klemmabyna

    klemmabyna Team Owner

    with my history in gaming, i'd like to readily remind everyone: odds are determined and adjusted by gambler's money.

    ky busch, logano, and elliott are false favorites based on fan base (although the joey odds are perplexing).

    value picks would be harvick, Larson, truex, and Johnson( (15-1!!!). and i'm an anti-Jimmie for 8, dale,sr fan.

    hope the kyle fans toss a lot of money towards vegas. he can drive a racecar, but just doesn't have a champion's makeup.
     
  6. AndyMarquisLive

    AndyMarquisLive Short Track Fanatic

    Las Vegas also said the Jacksonville Jaguars would go 5-11.
     
  7. kyle18fan

    kyle18fan OWD



    My championship hat , shirt and awesome jacket say differently
     
    Thegeneral23 likes this.
  8. kyle18fan

    kyle18fan OWD

    Busch is always a threat
     
  9. StandOnIt

    StandOnIt Farm Truck

    That stuff makes their money on the handling of the money (fees)
     
    Charlie Spencer likes this.
  10. ChexOrWrex

    ChexOrWrex Ya gotta wanna

    Espn & nascar

    Ha
     
  11. Charlie Spencer

    Charlie Spencer Short tracks and road courses rule.

    Yep, the goal is to spread the money around to best maximize the bookmaker's profits, not to serve as an accurate predictor.
     
    StandOnIt likes this.
  12. StandOnIt

    StandOnIt Farm Truck

    best friend's dad was a bookie, that is what he told me..get them evened up on both sides and take the cut from both. That is why the odds keep changing trying to keep the action even. It's a racket.
     
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  13. jws926

    jws926 Japanse Cars Are The Best

    Saying Kyle is a favorite to win the lottery is like saying when the sun is out, there is going to be sunshine
     
    Bucky Badger likes this.
  14. kyle18fan

    kyle18fan OWD



    Pretty much ........... you run the lottery race 4 times you might get 4 different winners
     
  15. flozeeahn

    flozeeahn Spectator

    everyone is so high on larson. even after the crumbling in the second half of the season. larson is obviously an elite driver and has now proven what he can do when given equipment capable of winning.

    that's just it, though...

    ganassi somehow had a little performance advantage over the other chevy teams for the better part of last season. that was....odd. i remember 2010 when jamie mcmurray won 3 races and contended seriously for 3 more. pretty much all his career milestones remain locked in that anomaly of that year, though. for that season, his equipment was elite with that rules package.

    larson has been in the series for 4 seasons now...and has been a championship threat just last season out of those. whether cgr can sustain this level of competitive speed remains to be seen. my money would say based off their track record, they're far more likely to regress collectively than continue to improve.

    now...larson is a better driver than mcmurray. but there's a reason mcmurray also had a great season by his standards this year. larson was the x-factor, but the previous 3 seasons were proof that his skills alone aren't enough. 42 is fool's gold in my opinion. too much change in hendrick for chase to win it all. jimmie is stuck at the 7 limit like those before him. truex just won his and has nowhere to go but down. kyle busch will be less likely because it's more likely the manufacturer gap shrinks. joey will improve but needs to improve way too much. brad might do it. that team was tenacious as all get out and will be a nightmare if the speed at 1.5's comes back.

    harvick is the favorite in my eyes. most proven at advancing through this tournament. but i'll take denny hamlin at that 15-1. still wins every year. has been within a hair of the title before. made the final in his slowest season during 2014. was so close to advancing to the final this season. drives for a top team.

    if i were a gambling man. i think the 4 car or the 2 crew have a great chance at bringing ford a title next season. brad's bitching might change things yet.
     
  16. StandOnIt

    StandOnIt Farm Truck

    Ganassi made a lot of changes to his engineering and management staff, but I believe the biggest change is when he changed engine suppliers from Childress to Hendrick eh? After those changes were made Larson took off then. Ironic that a Hendrick engine failed at the worst time.
     
    Charlie Spencer likes this.
  17. Truex_rox

    Truex_rox Furniture Row's Biggest Fan

    It's gonna be hard for Truex to repeat. I think that Truex will go on and string together his third consecutive multiple-win season and continue the trend of having the previous champion make it to the final four, but I'm going to be watching Larson, Elliott, and KyBu. Harvick also quietly built up some momentum here at the end of this season - I will not soon forget how 2014-16 went for him. When he's not choking himself, he's pretty lethal. ;)

    Logano, pfft, he might bounce back, but I don't see him going all the way to the final four.
    Jimmie is a dark horse going into next season. With a feisty-brand-spanking-new Camaro at his disposal, he could very well bounce back. Between him and Logano, I'd say he is more likely to comeback. If not, I'll add that to that "Things You Were Wrong About in NASCAR" thread. :p:cool:
     
  18. Snappy D

    Snappy D 2017 Pick Em Champion

    I’d put $150 on JJ, 15-1 odds. Nice chunk of Change there
     
  19. Kiante

    Kiante Team Owner

    Don't sleep on Logano, he's going to bounce back next season.

    I would put Blaney in that top 10 for next year as well.
     
  20. aunty dive

    aunty dive Team Owner

    How very generous of you.

    Is it too early to call Blaney for the 2018 Cup?
     
    Charlie Spencer likes this.
  21. Kiante

    Kiante Team Owner

    My crystal ball is broken, I was hoping yours is still operational.
     
    aunty dive likes this.
  22. aunty dive

    aunty dive Team Owner

    Mine looks ok but it isn’t working reliably.

    Maybe there’s a recall notice in the mail. I’ll check.
     
    Kiante likes this.
  23. Charlie Spencer

    Charlie Spencer Short tracks and road courses rule.

    The lottery format makes it more difficult for anyone to repeat. BZF's dream is a starting field with 40 current or former Cup champions.
     
    Pat and Skoalbandit33 like this.
  24. Charlie Spencer

    Charlie Spencer Short tracks and road courses rule.

    Nope. Is it too early to start making fun of you for it? :p
     
    aunty dive likes this.
  25. SlicedBread22

    SlicedBread22 #TeamJL

    Is this for real?! Lol Kyle.. bc why not?

    TBH I think Joey should be further down the list.. not that I don't think he will have a better season but how can they put him ahead of Brad when Brad just ran for a cup? Who's analysis came up with these numbers? Lol
     
  26. Charlie Spencer

    Charlie Spencer Short tracks and road courses rule.

    Again, you're missing the point of these numbers. They're not predictions. They exist to even out how the bets are distributed.

    Simplest example: assume everything else is equal between the two. If everyone bets on Brad and no one bets on Joey, the odds will go up on Joey in an effort to get more people to wager on him.
     
    StandOnIt likes this.
  27. USMCKoontz

    USMCKoontz Crew Chief

    With TRD dominance I can see why Busch would be a early favorite. He was a favorite this year also. With the final 4 being Two Toyotas and 2 Fords (although should have been 3 Toyotas and 1 ford had Chase not knocked Denny out).

    If the Chevy bodystyle improves their performaces (which I think it will), then Look out for Larson for sure, and I would not count Chase out of it.

    And as much as people wont like to hear it. I think William Byron may be the new kid to look out for. His driving ability is amazing for his age, and like Larson he seems to know the car and track really well.

    Gonn be a fun season. Ford needs to adjust to gain speed if not they will be left behind this season I think.
     
  28. RowdyBusch

    RowdyBusch Crew Chief

    Pointless to predict anything in this series anymore, the playoffs are a joke/crap shoot.
     
    Pat, Skoalbandit33 and kymartin6 like this.
  29. USMCKoontz

    USMCKoontz Crew Chief

    I dont think so. I had 3 of the 4 selected after the Atlanta Race.
     
  30. Charlie Spencer

    Charlie Spencer Short tracks and road courses rule.

    Hey, who dug up the Jarhead? :p
     
  31. ToyYoda

    ToyYoda Team Owner

    Not sure how Chase has almost as good of odds as Truex and better odds than the Penske boys. I like Kez at 10-1.
     
  32. Taco

    Taco Crew Chief

    So the odds makers use fan base for the odds?
     
  33. FLRacingFan

    FLRacingFan Team Owner

    Y'all really sleep on Vegas. In most sports you'll find there aren't (m)any better predictors than the Vegas lines.
     
    LewTheShoe and Skoalbandit33 like this.
  34. USMCKoontz

    USMCKoontz Crew Chief

    I have been around :) got away from posting for awhile lol :)
     
    Charlie Spencer and Johali like this.
  35. DanicaFreak

    DanicaFreak Green monster

    Can you imagine dropping 10K against that prediction? You'd be set for life
     
  36. Charlie Spencer

    Charlie Spencer Short tracks and road courses rule.

    I can't imagine throwing away $10K on any form of gambling. I can't imagine throwing away $10.
     
  37. AdoubleU24

    AdoubleU24 Team Owner

    Did you watch the playoffs? 2nd best avg. finish to only the champ :idunno:
     
  38. DanicaFreak

    DanicaFreak Green monster

    me either, too big of a risk being a family guy and all ya just cant do that
     
  39. Team Penske

    Team Penske Team Owner

    Once it is established that your a car to beat, the other drivers will race you much harder and the spotters will also. Chase may find it more difficult in the future.
     
  40. Charlie Spencer

    Charlie Spencer Short tracks and road courses rule.

    I'm not only risk-adverse, I'm also just plain cheap. There's no entertainment value in gambling for me.
     
    Skoalbandit33 and DanicaFreak like this.

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