I could flip it to If he races 20 years at 3 wins a year that’s 60. And you’re totally overlooking that fact that at just 2 Years in he’s running up front and contending. Yes he hasn’t closed out races but these races are so hard to win, you don’t give the kid any learning curve what so ever? He carried HMS over the last 10 weeks, you’re over looking that a bit too I think. I disagree with you 100%, but at the same time none of us can predict the future he might get hurt, HMS might fall further down. All I can say is I’d bet on him winning 45-50 races, I’d bet it 100 times out of 100