Would Jeff Gordon Have Won 7 Championships If Ray Evernham Had Stayed?

Tumbleweed

Tumbleweed

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I've often wondered about this. I think he might have. I think he was as good as Jimmy is and was capable of winning 7 championships just as Jimmy did if Ray had not left when he did.
 
this topic is usually a Reddit favorite but I'll say my piece as a Jeff Gordon fan, a hero of mine since I was in third grade. Consider me reeled in. Ray leaving didnt cost Jeff 7 championships. HMS and the 24 would have rebuilt just fine, which was proven in the 01 title with Loomis, the 07 season with Steve and the magical 2014 season. The change to the gimmick Chase and Playoff systems is the main culprit. Now I'll exit gracefully before the others get here.
 
Even without a Chase format I don't see how Jeff gets to 7. I also don't see Ray leaving having much to do with it. Crew chief eras come and go as the technology they're comfortable gets phased out. Jimmie and Knaus were unstoppable in the late 00s but by the late 10s driver and crew chief were both behind undoubtly.

Unpopular opinion- Gordon would've won more than 4 championships had a "playoff" format been in place the entirety of his career. They were always super clutch and some of his seasons raise serious question marks about the lack of importance of wins in NASCAR at the time. Ex- 96' season finishing 2nd in points with 10 wins, and 6th in 1999 with 7 wins. They were consistent in "clutch/game 7" moments before that was a regular thing in NASCAR regarding how they won many of their races (daring strategy, great last adjustment, Gordon dialing it to 110%). That would've translated very well in a Playoff format.
 
There was a steep falloff in performance after Evernham left. Gordon had like 58 wins before the start of 2000. His stats in the 90's are on par with prime Richard Petty. He was on pace to become the all-time greatest driver in this sport. His decline is somewhat baffling, but it aligns with Evernham leaving him.

We've seen how important it is to have a good crew chief. Does he get 7 championships if Evernham stays? I'd say more like 10. That's how good they were together.
 
Had Gordon retired in 2000 at the age of 27, he'd still be considered a top 15 greatest of all time based on his stats his first 8 years. Let that sink in.
 
Without the chase I think he may have won a couple more, but not 7. The competition was too good. I just don't see them beating JJ and smoke enough times to pull it off

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No, and Bill Elliotts last win would of been in 1994.
 
Jorge De Guzman said:
this topic is usually a Reddit favorite but I'll say my piece as a Jeff Gordon fan, a hero of mine since I was in third grade. Consider me reeled in. Ray leaving didnt cost Jeff 7 championships. HMS and the 24 would have rebuilt just fine, which was proven in the 01 title with Loomis, the 07 season with Steve and the magical 2014 season. The change to the gimmick Chase and Playoff systems is the main culprit. Now I'll exit gracefully before the others get here.
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Still only 6
 
kkfan91 said:
Still only 6
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Well this whole exercise is hypothetical. But I’d imagine let’s work off of 95,97,98,01 since it’s factual. Then 04 as he was the best all season pretty much, then 07, 14. There’s your 7.
 
sdj said:
We'll never know.
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This is pretty much the only right answer, but I never saw Ray staying the duration of Jeff’s career. Even though I got very excited to see him back at HMS in 13,14 and 15.
 
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The biggest reason the answer is no is because Ray was burnt out on being a crew chief and wasn't going to do it much longer, whether he stayed at HMS or not. What made Chad Knaus what he was is that he kept the fire burning much longer than most. You can't do what Ray and Chad did year after year without being totally consumed by the task at hand. Most people never have that, and most of the ones that do burn out fairly quickly. There were people predicting Chad wouldn't last two years as a crew chief, and that was BEFORE he had the pressure to be on top every year. The other dirty little secret was that Ray and Jeff were not getting along near as well as they had, for various reasons. Unfortunately for the people that were huge fans of the duo (myself included) I think that marriage (much like both Jeff's and Ray's) had pretty much run its course.
 
Formerjackman said:
The biggest reason the answer is no is because Ray was burnt out on being a crew chief and wasn't going to do it much longer, whether he stayed at HMS or not. What made Chad Knaus what he was is that he kept the fire burning much longer than most. You can't do what Ray and Chad did year after year without being totally consumed by the task at hand. Most people never have that, and most of the ones that do burn out fairly quickly. There were people predicting Chad wouldn't last two years as a crew chief, and that was BEFORE he had the pressure to be on top every year. The other dirty little secret was that Ray and Jeff were not getting along near as well as they had, for various reasons. Unfortunately for the people that were huge fans of the duo (myself included) I think that marriage (much like both Jeff's and Ray's) had pretty much run its course.
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^ This
 
Formerjackman said:
The biggest reason the answer is no is because Ray was burnt out on being a crew chief and wasn't going to do it much longer, whether he stayed at HMS or not. What made Chad Knaus what he was is that he kept the fire burning much longer than most. You can't do what Ray and Chad did year after year without being totally consumed by the task at hand. Most people never have that, and most of the ones that do burn out fairly quickly.
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See Cole Pearn and Kirk Shelmerdine
 
JJ_14 said:
There was a steep falloff in performance after Evernham left. Gordon had like 49 wins before the start of 2000. His stats in the 90's are on par with prime Richard Petty. He was on pace to become the all-time greatest driver in this sport. His decline is somewhat baffling, but it aligns with Evernham leaving him.

We've seen how important it is to have a good crew chief. Does he get 7 championships if Evernham stays? I'd say more like 10. That's how good they were together.
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Fixed.
 
I think the second half of the 90's was just a freak of nature. I don't think ANYBODY is going to go 7,10,10,13,9* in the win column over a five year stretch EVER again, and it was a standard set SO HIGH, even Ray and Jeff couldn't have kept that going much longer.
 
Formerjackman said:
I think the second half of the 90's was just a freak of nature. I don't think ANYBODY is going to go 7,10,10,13,9* in the win column over a five year stretch EVER again, and it was a standard set SO HIGH, even Ray and Jeff couldn't have kept that going much longer.
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IMO the box is too tight now for that to happen

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kkfan91 said:
No, and Bill Elliotts last win would of been in 1994.
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Thats interesting in itself. Bill's team wasnt doing well, where would have ended up. I remember reading around that time (99-2000ish) that he had a chance to go to Roush before Evernham came in with the offer of buying his team and running Dodges?
 
Formerjackman said:
I think the second half of the 90's was just a freak of nature. I don't think ANYBODY is going to go 7,10,10,13,9* in the win column over a five year stretch EVER again, and it was a standard set SO HIGH, even Ray and Jeff couldn't have kept that going much longer.
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7, 10, 10, 13, 7, not nine..

That's 47 race wins, 3 championships in a 5 year stretch. 1995-1999.


Just for comparison's sake..Kyle Busch has established himself as, at minimum a top 10 driver of all time. 61 race wins, 2 championships. That's as ridiculous as it comes today. A big part of that? His 5 year peak.


2015-2019: 27 races wins, 2 championships. His peak included 1 less championship and 20 less race wins than Gordon's.

What's even crazier is this. Kyle Busch could duplicate that 5 year peak of his over these next 5 years, which itself would be unprecidented..and he'd still only tie Gordon's championship total, and be 6 wins short of Gordon's win total. Comparatively, such a peak would also give him just 4 more race wins than his contemporary Jimmie Johnson, and 3 less championships.

And as a comparison, Johnson's 5 year peak included 35 race wins and 5 championships.

Point being here, the GOATs of the sport really are pretty untouchable. We'll never see that kind of domination any time soon again

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Formerjackman said:
I think the second half of the 90's was just a freak of nature. I don't think ANYBODY is going to go 7,10,10,13,9* in the win column over a five year stretch EVER again, and it was a standard set SO HIGH, even Ray and Jeff couldn't have kept that going much longer.
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It could've happened deep into the 2000s though. Especially if the Chase wasn't implemented. But in the late-90s, the only super-consistent threat to Gordon was 1990 series champion Mark Martin. (People really forget how freaking consistent that guy was.)

Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson were always going to reduce Gordon's dominance, but to what degree, who knows? That Gordon/Evernham combo was just lethal.
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
It could've happened deep into the 2000s though. Especially if the Chase wasn't implemented. But in the late-90s, the only super-consistent threat to Gordon was 1990 series champion Mark Martin. (People really forget how freaking consistent that guy was.)

Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson were always going to reduce Gordon's dominance, but to what degree, who knows? That Gordon/Evernham combo was just lethal.
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It also burnt out. It's really tough to know. Because if Ray sticks around, we also assume he keeps his fire, doesn't burn out, that relationship doesn't become abrasive.

Also by 2004, 25/36 races were won by drivers not in the field during Gordon's peak. Teams took chances on young talent because of Gordon. And really, the fact is that the gap in talent and equipment from that 24 car to the 6th best car by 2004 was smaller than Gordon and Martin in the 90s.

Evernham leaving isn't the only reason why he slowed down. It was the boom in talent.

Gordon was still as good as anyone, and the 24 team was top tier. But the field caught up



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I would've liked to have seen Gordon and Evernham together during the Chase era. I think Ray would've understood what Chad did about using the summer months to experiment and prepare the car for The Chase. Gordon wins at least one of the five that Jimmie won in a row, and Jimmie isn't a 7-time champion with Gordon and Evernham together.

I think Jeff likely retires as a 6-time champion. Johnson gets 5-6 championships in this scenario. The story of Jeff Gordon in the 2000s is a lot different if Evernham decides to remain a crew chief.
 
The Nature Boy said:
I would've liked to have seen Gordon and Evernham together during the Chase era. I think Ray would've understood what Chad did about using the summer months to experiment and prepare the car for The Chase. Gordon wins at least one of the five that Jimmie won in a row, and Jimmie isn't a 7-time champion with Gordon and Evernham together.

I think Jeff likely retires as a 6-time champion. Johnson gets 5-6 championships in this scenario. The story of Jeff Gordon in the 2000s is a lot different if Evernham decides to remain a crew chief.
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This.
 
The Nature Boy said:
I would've liked to have seen Gordon and Evernham together during the Chase era. I think Ray would've understood what Chad did about using the summer months to experiment and prepare the car for The Chase. Gordon wins at least one of the five that Jimmie won in a row, and Jimmie isn't a 7-time champion with Gordon and Evernham together.

I think Jeff likely retires as a 6-time champion. Johnson gets 5-6 championships in this scenario. The story of Jeff Gordon in the 2000s is a lot different if Evernham decides to remain a crew chief.
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Not so sure. Because again, we are assuming that the human element is a non - factor. In order for them to keep up, they'd need to increase their workload. As good as Jimmie was, and as smart as Chad was, what made them really dominant was their work ethic, and how bad/hungry they were. They brought a combination of talent, leadership hunger, drive, work ethic and effort that didn't exist in tbe sport.

Even if Gordon and Ray stay together, they're not new. Where do they find the hunger to compete with their teammates? Does a 10+ year old relationship between Gordon and Ray suddenly reignite? Are the inspired enough to copy the 48 team's approach to the season, and work harder than they ever did against an even tougher field?

Not buying it.


This isn't as simple as saying "if they stayed together..."

I'd give them the 2004 Chase. And maybe the the 2007 Chase. That's a hard hard maybe.



The fact of the matter is that Ray and Jeff dominated a less talented and less funded field than that which the 48 team raced against...who kept it going longer.

I think they win more races and another championship by the mid 2000s, but ultimately, the field would have caught up, and Chad and Jimmie would have surpassed them.

I think Jeff Gordon and Ray get to 105 or so wins, and win a 5th championship in 2004. They're still dead even with Tony from 1999-2005.

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Like I said early in this thread, I think he wins at least 10. Some people don't realize how historic they were together.

Let's put it this way. During their tenure, they won 3 championships & 49 races. Those are literally Tony Stewart's stats for his whole career, & Stewart is considered a top 10 driver of all time.

Hindsight is 20/20. There are many factors to consider. That said, Jeff Gordon dragging Steve LeTarte to deep playoff runs is all you need to know.
 
Was Jeff Gordon only capable of dominating and winning championships with Evernham?
 
JJ_14 said:
Like I said early in this thread, I think he wins at least 10. Some people don't realize how historic they were together.

Let's put it this way. During their tenure, they won 3 championships & 49 races. Those are literally Tony Stewart's stats for his whole career, & Stewart is considered a top 10 driver of all time.

Hindsight is 20/20. There are many factors to consider. That said, Jeff Gordon dragging Steve LeTarte to deep playoff runs is all you need to know.
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10 championship? Maybe if nothing changed in the 2000s but the competition was so much improved in the 2000s, he wasn't up against JJ and Stewart in the 90s. There was no Kyle Busch or Denny Hamlin or Carl Edwards. The late 90s didn't have much competition. Dale Sr was passed his prime, as were Wallace and Elliot. Who was he racing that was in their prime? Jeff Burton? The competition just wasn't there.
 
JJ_14 said:
Like I said early in this thread, I think he wins at least 10. Some people don't realize how historic they were together.

Let's put it this way. During their tenure, they won 3 championships & 49 races. Those are literally Tony Stewart's stats for his whole career, & Stewart is considered a top 10 driver of all time.

Hindsight is 20/20. There are many factors to consider. That said, Jeff Gordon dragging Steve LeTarte to deep playoff runs is all you need to know.
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Rose colored glasses, imo.

See my previous comment. By 2004, the gap between Gordon/the 24 team and the 6th best car was close than Gordon and the 2nd best car when he was dominating with Ray in the 90s.

More talented drivers and better funded teams showed up. Mark Martin couldn't win a championship, in comes two young talented drivers and they win championships for the organization Mark couldn't win one for in a decade. Stewart came in and took it to Gordon, Johnson came in, etc.

And the big thing that's being overlooked is WHY his teammates dominanated. Jimmie and Chad had more hunger than anyone, and worked harder, to the point where it was unprecidented.

I ask you...how realistic do you think it is that a 10 year old relationship that was already growing stale, heals, and reignites a hunger to work harder than they EVER have, by following the 48 team's attitude?

Gordon and Ray get to 105 wins, and probably win it in 2004. But no more lolol

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Daytripper said:
10 championship? Maybe if nothing changed in the 2000s but the competition was so much improved in the 2000s, he wasn't up against JJ and Stewart in the 90s. There was no Kyle Busch or Denny Hamlin or Carl Edwards. The late 90s didn't have much competition. Dale Sr was passed his prime, as were Wallace and Elliot. Who was he racing that was in their prime? Jeff Burton? The competition just wasn't there.
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The biggest indicator that Gordon's fall off wasn't JUST losing Ray, but rather, an improvement in talent and funded teams is this...

Mark Martin was his biggest, championship caliber competition. Couldn't get it done.

Roush brings in two drivers and expands his cup team. His two new drivers win championships by their 4th years...something Mark couldn't do. And they weren't as good as Stewart, and eventually Johnson.

The talent/equipment gap from Gordon/24 team to the field shrunk, massively.

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jaqua19 said:
More talented drivers and better funded teams showed up.
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You're implying that Gordon had no competition in the 90's. That's debatable. He destroyed Dale Earnhardt, who was coming off a few titles in the early 90's. Maybe Earnhardt wasn't in his prime, but his stats show that he was still a high caliber driver.

I think Gordon was so dominant that he made the competition look weak. That doesn't mean the field was less talented. The pairing was just way too good & nobody could touch them.

That's just my opinion though. Gordon won 4 titles & all of them came before he hit his prime. I have to think he'd win many more had Evernham stayed.
 
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