2015 Daytona 500 Pre Race Thread

20 years ago today, Sterling Marlin wins his 2nd straight Daytona 500
090212_SterlingMarlin2_1995_v.jpg
 
Ive had pretty much all week of school snowed out, havent missed any NASCAR this week.

Also while there is a chance Earnhardt could miss the 500, as Kyle Petty said on NASCAR America, he has nothing to worry about tbh. I'd be more concerned for Danica though.
 
FLRacingFan said:
TL;DR: It's not happening.

* The two fastest qualifiers during Coors Light Pole Qualifying earn starting positions one and two.
* The highest 15 finishers in each Duel race -- excluding the already locked-in front row -- will earn a spot in the Daytona 500, and fill positions 3-32.
* Based on their finishing position in the first Duel race, the top 15 will line up on the inside row (odd-number starting positions).
* Based on their finishing position in the second Duel race, the top 15 will line up on the outside row (even-number starting positions).
* Positions 33-36 will go to the four fastest cars from any round of Coors Light Pole Qualifying that have not already earned a spot.
* Positions 37-42 will be provisional positions, and go to the highest six cars in 2014 owner points that are present, have entered by the entry deadline and have not already qualified via the Duel or Coors Light Pole Qualifying.
* The 43rd starting position will be assigned to any car owner who has the most recent eligible past NASCAR Sprint Cup champion who did not make the field by any other method, providing the driver had competed in the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup season. If the 43rd position remains unused, it will be assigned to the next highest car in 2014 owner points not already locked into the field.
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Thirteen drivers are locked into the Daytona 500: #24-Gordon (pole), #48-Johnson (outside pole), #43-Almirola (speed, any round 202.340), #17-Stenhouse Jr. (speed), #19-Edwards (speed), #1-McMurray (speed), #4-Harvick (2014 owners points, 1st), #31-Newman (points, 2nd), #11-Hamlin (points, 3rd), #22-Logano (points, 4th), #2-Keselowski (points, 5th), #20-Kenseth (points 7th) and #14-Stewart (champions provisional).
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For Earnhardt Jr. to miss the race:

First, he needs to finish outside the transfer spots (top 15) of his qualifying race.

Then, all six of Harvick, Newman, Hamlin, Logano, Keselowski and Kenseth need to finish outside the transfer spots in their qualifying race, as well as four of the seven remaining drivers that put up a faster speed in qualifying. Finally, one of the former series champions not yet locked in would have to also not finish in a transfer spot.
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For Danica to miss the race:

Obviously, it would start with her finishing outside the transfer spots in her Duel race.

Patrick was 32nd-fastest in last Sunday’s qualifying; only four of the drivers in front of her would need to fall back on their speed for Danica to not have one of those spots available.

At least six drivers among the 27 ahead of her in owner points would then also need to have to revert to their points, not including the four who would qualify on speed.
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Thanks for info
 
Brad Keselowski @keselowski

The duels should be exciting tonight. Probably the most stressful race of the year & I have a feeling at least one big team will go home.
 
Reck said:
Huh? Whatttt? What are you guys talking about missing a race?

Aren't Jr and Danica locked in by points? Arent you good for the first 6 races of the year on points via last year's standings?

So, by that same logic, Gordon, Jimmie, Brad etc could have missed the 500?

Confused.
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Maybe but not a given. There are 6 places that can be filled by owner's points (37-42). Junior is first in line. I'm not sure about Danica.
 
@dustinlong

Jeff Gordon says if he feels like he’s in a bad situation in tonight’s Duel he’ll take care of his car. Focus on 500.
 
FLRacingFan said:
TL;DR: It's not happening.

* The two fastest qualifiers during Coors Light Pole Qualifying earn starting positions one and two.
* The highest 15 finishers in each Duel race -- excluding the already locked-in front row -- will earn a spot in the Daytona 500, and fill positions 3-32.
* Based on their finishing position in the first Duel race, the top 15 will line up on the inside row (odd-number starting positions).
* Based on their finishing position in the second Duel race, the top 15 will line up on the outside row (even-number starting positions).
* Positions 33-36 will go to the four fastest cars from any round of Coors Light Pole Qualifying that have not already earned a spot.
* Positions 37-42 will be provisional positions, and go to the highest six cars in 2014 owner points that are present, have entered by the entry deadline and have not already qualified via the Duel or Coors Light Pole Qualifying.
* The 43rd starting position will be assigned to any car owner who has the most recent eligible past NASCAR Sprint Cup champion who did not make the field by any other method, providing the driver had competed in the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup season. If the 43rd position remains unused, it will be assigned to the next highest car in 2014 owner points not already locked into the field.
-------------------------------------------
Thirteen drivers are locked into the Daytona 500: #24-Gordon (pole), #48-Johnson (outside pole), #43-Almirola (speed, any round 202.340), #17-Stenhouse Jr. (speed), #19-Edwards (speed), #1-McMurray (speed), #4-Harvick (2014 owners points, 1st), #31-Newman (points, 2nd), #11-Hamlin (points, 3rd), #22-Logano (points, 4th), #2-Keselowski (points, 5th), #20-Kenseth (points 7th) and #14-Stewart (champions provisional).
------------------------------------------
For Earnhardt Jr. to miss the race:

First, he needs to finish outside the transfer spots (top 15) of his qualifying race.

Then, all six of Harvick, Newman, Hamlin, Logano, Keselowski and Kenseth need to finish outside the transfer spots in their qualifying race, as well as four of the seven remaining drivers that put up a faster speed in qualifying. Finally, one of the former series champions not yet locked in would have to also not finish in a transfer spot.
------------------------------------------
For Danica to miss the race:

Obviously, it would start with her finishing outside the transfer spots in her Duel race.

Patrick was 32nd-fastest in last Sunday’s qualifying; only four of the drivers in front of her would need to fall back on their speed for Danica to not have one of those spots available.

At least six drivers among the 27 ahead of her in owner points would then also need to have to revert to their points, not including the four who would qualify on speed.
Click to expand...

Thanks. I should have read forward.
 
dpkimmel2001 said:
Brad Keselowski @keselowski

The duels should be exciting tonight. Probably the most stressful race of the year & I have a feeling at least one big team will go home.
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I hope he is wrong about a big name going home.
 
At work...doing OT...and NASCAR.com shows no cars on track :*(
 
Is nascar.com right? only 3 cars made a run?
 
DanicaFreak said:
Is nascar.com right? only 3 cars made a run?
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Not much going on at all. Looks like the cars that needed repair are the only ones on the track.

The only problem with that is, we have to listen to DW flap his jaws more :mad:
 
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Tonight's low at Daytona is 28° and I'm supposed to feel bad for everyone freezing down there.

The "creek" in my backyard runs out to a river which runs from Radford, Virginia all the way out to Cincinnati, Ohio. I could literally walk from my house to Cincinnati across that river.
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
Tonight's low at Daytona is 28° and I'm supposed to feel bad for everyone freezing down there.

The "creek" in my backyard runs out to a river which runs from Radford, Virginia all the way out to Cincinnati, Ohio. I could literally walk from my house to Cincinnati across that river.
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The spotters though.....


"Th, thu, thu, three wide in the m-m-middle"


Oh yeah, it would be worth the walk. skyline Chili is the ****.
 
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Jeb Burton was around 3mph slower than Larson running single car times. I'm not expecting much. He doesn't have a very good ride
 
Since speedweeks started I don't know who 3/4s of these people on fox are. :confused:
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
Tonight's low at Daytona is 28° and I'm supposed to feel bad for everyone freezing down there.

The "creek" in my backyard runs out to a river which runs from Radford, Virginia all the way out to Cincinnati, Ohio. I could literally walk from my house to Cincinnati across that river.
Click to expand...
Would that creek feed into the New River? Would that 'creek' BE the New River?

DUN24 said:
Oh yeah, it would be worth the walk. skyline Chili is the sh!t.
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Uh-uh. Those twits put spaghetti in their chili. That's worse than rice. If I wanted chili-mac (which I don't), I'd open a can.
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
Tonight's low at Daytona is 28° and I'm supposed to feel bad for everyone freezing down there.

The "creek" in my backyard runs out to a river which runs from Radford, Virginia all the way out to Cincinnati, Ohio. I could literally walk from my house to Cincinnati across that river.
Click to expand...

Six below in the Chicagoland area this morning.

28 degrees is tee-shirt weather around here . . .
 
Edit: Added Details

Got some odds on making the field for everybody so that you know what to look for during the duels tonight. The percentages might not be spot on but the order of likelihood to make the field is very accurate. I put about 2 hours into this:

Odds:

First 13 are 100% locked in:
1.Jeff Gordon (1st Speed)
2.Jimmie Johnson (2nd Speed)
3.Aric Almirola (3rd Speed)
4.Ricky Stenhouse Jr.(4th Speed)
5.Carl Edwards (5th Speed)
6.Jamie Mcmurray (6th Speed)
7.Kevin Harvick (1st 2014 Points)
8.Ryan Newman (2nd 2014 Points)
9.Denny Hamlin (3rd 2014 Points)
10.Joey Logano (4th 2014 Points)
11.Brad Keselowski (5th 2014 Points)
12.Matt Kenseth (6th 2014 Points)
13.Tony Stewart (PC1)


Almost For Sure:
14.Kurt Busch (99.9%) (PC2, Also 6th out on points)
15.Michael Waltrip (99.9%) (1st out on speed)
16.Trevor Bayne (99.9%) (1st out on points, using #99 points from 2014)
17.Kyle Busch (99.9%) (2nd out on speed, 3rd out on points)
18.Dale Earnhardt Jr. (99%) (2nd out on points)
19.AJ Allmendinger (98%) (4th out on points)
20.Greg Biffle (98%) (5th out on points)
21.Austin Dillon (98%) (3rd out on speed)
22.Kasey Kahne (98%) (4th out on speed)
23.Bobby Labonte (97%) (PC3)
24.Ty Dillon (95%) (5th out on speed)
25.Kyle Larson (93%) (8th out on points)

Drivers Worth Being Concerned For If You’re A Fan:
26.Clint Bowyer (90%) (9th out on points)
27.Martin Truex (87%) (7th out on speed)
28.Paul Menard (85%) (11th out on points)
29.Johnny Sauter (80%) (8th out on speed)
30.JJ Yeley (75%) (9th out on speed)
31.Sam Hornish Jr. (73%) (10th out on speed)
32.Ryan Blaney (70%) (11th out on speed)
33.Alex Bowman (67%) (18th out on speed)
34.Danica Patrick (65%) (23rd out on speed)
35.Casey Mears (63%) (24th out on speed)
36.Brian Scott (59%) (Doesn't matter, at this point there's no chance off of speed. He's next in line but he will need to race in)
37.Michael Annett (57%) (Needs to race in)
38.Justin Allgaier (56%) (Needs to race in)
39.David Gilliland (55%) (Needs to race in)
40.Michael Mcdowell (54%) (Needs to race in)
41.Jeb Burton (53%) (Needs to race in)
42.Reed Sorenson (52%) (Needs to race in)
43.Justin Marks (51%) (Needs to race in)

Most Likely Out:
44.David Ragan (49%) (Needs to race in)
45.Cole Whitt (35%) (Needs to race in, is slow)
46.Josh Wise (30%) (Needs to race in, is slow)
47.Landon Cassill (25%) (Needs to race in, is slow)
48.Mike Wallace (20%) (Needs to race in, is very slow)
49.Ron Hornaday Jr. (15%) (Needs to race in, is almost 2 mph off Mike Wallace)

Upon request I can further explain why I put someone where I did. This is completely unbiased and based on practice speeds and qualifying
 
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