2015 Daytona 500 Pre Race Thread

FLRacingFan said:
TL;DR: It's not happening.

* The two fastest qualifiers during Coors Light Pole Qualifying earn starting positions one and two.
* The highest 15 finishers in each Duel race -- excluding the already locked-in front row -- will earn a spot in the Daytona 500, and fill positions 3-32.
* Based on their finishing position in the first Duel race, the top 15 will line up on the inside row (odd-number starting positions).
* Based on their finishing position in the second Duel race, the top 15 will line up on the outside row (even-number starting positions).
* Positions 33-36 will go to the four fastest cars from any round of Coors Light Pole Qualifying that have not already earned a spot.
* Positions 37-42 will be provisional positions, and go to the highest six cars in 2014 owner points that are present, have entered by the entry deadline and have not already qualified via the Duel or Coors Light Pole Qualifying.
* The 43rd starting position will be assigned to any car owner who has the most recent eligible past NASCAR Sprint Cup champion who did not make the field by any other method, providing the driver had competed in the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup season. If the 43rd position remains unused, it will be assigned to the next highest car in 2014 owner points not already locked into the field.
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Thirteen drivers are locked into the Daytona 500: #24-Gordon (pole), #48-Johnson (outside pole), #43-Almirola (speed, any round 202.340), #17-Stenhouse Jr. (speed), #19-Edwards (speed), #1-McMurray (speed), #4-Harvick (2014 owners points, 1st), #31-Newman (points, 2nd), #11-Hamlin (points, 3rd), #22-Logano (points, 4th), #2-Keselowski (points, 5th), #20-Kenseth (points 7th) and #14-Stewart (champions provisional).
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For Earnhardt Jr. to miss the race:

First, he needs to finish outside the transfer spots (top 15) of his qualifying race.

Then, all six of Harvick, Newman, Hamlin, Logano, Keselowski and Kenseth need to finish outside the transfer spots in their qualifying race, as well as four of the seven remaining drivers that put up a faster speed in qualifying. Finally, one of the former series champions not yet locked in would have to also not finish in a transfer spot.
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For Danica to miss the race:

Obviously, it would start with her finishing outside the transfer spots in her Duel race.

Patrick was 32nd-fastest in last Sunday’s qualifying; only four of the drivers in front of her would need to fall back on their speed for Danica to not have one of those spots available.

At least six drivers among the 27 ahead of her in owner points would then also need to have to revert to their points, not including the four who would qualify on speed.
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Info overload. Dang
 
jheynen24 said:
Got some odds on making the field for everybody so that you know what to look for during the duels tonight. The percentages might not be spot on but the order of likelihood to make the field is very accurate. I put about 2 hours into this:

Upon request I can further explain why I put someone where I did. This is completely unbiased and based on practice speeds and qualifying
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I'm geeky enough to want to know how you arrived at your odds, other than the first 12.
 
jheynen24 said:
Got some odds on making the field for everybody so that you know what to look for during the duels tonight. The percentages might not be spot on but the order of likelihood to make the field is very accurate. I put about 2 hours into this:

Odds:

First 13 are 100% locked in:
1.Jeff Gordon
2.Jimmie Johnson
3.Aric Almirola
4.Ricky Stenhouse
5.Carl Edwards
6.Jamie Mcmurray
7.Kevin Harvick
8.Ryan Newman
9.Denny Hamlin
10.Joey Logano
11.Brad Keselowski
12.Matt Kenseth
13.Tony Stewart


Almost For Sure:
14.Kurt Busch (99.9%)
15.Michael Waltrip (99.9%)
16.Trevor Bayne (99.9%)
17.Kyle Busch (99%)
18.Dale Earnhardt Jr. (99%)
19.AJ Allmendinger (98%)
20.Greg Biffle (98%)
21.Austin Dillon (98%)
22.Kasey Kahne (98%)
23.Bobby Labonte (97%)
24.Ty Dillon (95%)
25.Kyle Larson (93%)

Drivers Worth Being Concerned For If You’re A Fan:
26.Clint Bowyer (90%)
27.Martin Truex (87%)
28.Paul Menard (85%)
29.Johnny Sauter (80%)
30.JJ Yeley (75%)
31.Sam Hornish Jr. (73%)
32.Ryan Blaney (70%)
33.Alex Bowman (67%)
34.Danica Patrick (65%)
35.Casey Mears (63%)
36.Brian Scott (59%)
37.Michael Annett (57%)
38.Justin Allgaier (56%)
39.David Gilliland (55%)
40.Michael Mcdowell (54%)
41.Jeb Burton (53%)
42.Reed Sorenson (52%)
43.Justin Marks (51%)

Most Likely Out:
44.David Ragan (49%)
45.Cole Whitt (35%)
46.Josh Wise (30%)
47.Landon Cassill (25%)
48.Mike Wallace (20%)
49.Ron Hornaday Jr. (15%)

Upon request I can further explain why I put someone where I did. This is completely unbiased and based on practice speeds and qualifying
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Damn. Somebody has a lotta spare time on their hands. :cool:
 
Charlie Spencer said:
I'm geeky enough to want to know how you arrived at your odds, other than the first 12.
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Well, I'm not gonna put every detail here, but I'll actually edit the list with a few details behind each name. That will be easiest I think.
 
AndyMarquisLive said:
Tonight's low at Daytona is 28° and I'm supposed to feel bad for everyone freezing down there.

The "creek" in my backyard runs out to a river which runs from Radford, Virginia all the way out to Cincinnati, Ohio. I could literally walk from my house to Cincinnati across that river.
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Well you might consider thinking about the farmers in the central and southern Florida area that have vegetables in the ground about to harvest for your consumption, since they ain't growing anything to eat where you live. Where do you think a lot of your food and fruit comes from in the winter? Just sayin.


Oh yeah, Matt has got his twin covered, no sweat.
 
Friday, February 20
6 a.m., The Day: Remembering Dale Earnhardt (re-air), FOX Sports 2
7 a.m., Budweiser Duel at Daytona (re-air), FOX Sports 2
10 a.m., A Perfect Storm: The 1979 DAYTONA 500 (re-air), FOX Sports 1
11 a.m., NASCAR Sprint Cup Series practice, FOX Sports 1
12:30 p.m., NASCAR XFINITY Series practice, FOX Sports 1
2 p.m., NASCAR Sprint Cup Series practice, FOX Sports 1
3:30 p.m., NASCAR XFINITY Series final practice, FOX Sports 1
4:30 p.m., NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Keystone Light Pole Qualifying, FOX Sports 1
6 p.m., NASCAR America, NBC Sports Network
6 p.m., NASCAR Race Hub: Weekend Edition, FOX Sports 1
6:30 p.m., The List: Rookie Seasons (re-air), NBC Sports Network
7 p.m., NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Set Up, FOX Sports 1
7:30 p.m., NASCAR Camping World Truck Series NextEra Energy Resources 250, FOX Sports 1
3 a.m., NASCAR Camping World Truck Series NextEra Energy Resources 250 (re-air), FOX Sports 1
 
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 20:

ON TRACK-- 11 a.m.-12:20 p.m.: NASCAR Sprint Cup Series practice, FOX Sports 1 (Follow live)
-- 12:30-1:55 p.m..: NASCAR XFINITY Series practice, FOX Sports 1 (Follow live)
-- 2-3:25 p.m.: NASCAR Sprint Cup Series practice, FOX Sports 1 (Follow live)
-- 3:30-4:25 p.m..: NASCAR XFINITY Series final practice, FOX Sports 1 (Follow live)
-- 4:45 p.m. (approx.): NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Keystone Light Pole Qualifying, FOX Sports 1 (Follow live)
-- 7:30 p.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series NextEra Energy Resources 250, FOX Sports 1 (100 laps, 250 miles) (Follow live)

PRESS CONFERENCES (Watch live)
-- 10 a.m.: XFINITY Championship Trophy unveil
-- 1 p.m.: Daytona Rising update
-- 9:45 p.m.: NCWTS Post Race Press Conference

GARAGECAM
-- Noon: NASCAR XFINITY Series (Watch live)
 
15 years ago today, Dale Jarrett won his 3rd and final Daytona 500
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dpkimmel2001 said:
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I've been secretly hoping for a rain delay/postponement so this race gets run under the lights Sunday or Monday. Every other major sporting event is showcased in primetime and I do not understand why NASCAR is so opposed to making this a mainstay, especially with their dwindling viewership ratings.
 
RacerrecaR said:
I've been secretly hoping for a rain delay/postponement so this race gets run under the lights Sunday or Monday. Every other major sporting event is showcased in primetime and I do not understand why NASCAR is so opposed to making this a mainstay, especially with their dwindling viewership ratings.
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I used to be on the chip about NASCAR television ratings. Any more, I don't really care. The television contracts are in place for a long time to come with both television partners. Billions were paid for the rights to broadcast this sport. I'll let them worry about it.

That being said, I too enjoy the D500 ran @ night. It does make it feel like more of a major sporting even when that's been the case.
 
ODDS TO WIN 2015 DAYTONA 500 (2/22/15)
DriverOdds
Dale Earnhardt Jr.15/2
Jimmie Johnson17/2
Jeff Gordon10/1
Matt Kenseth10/1
Brad Keselowski12/1
Carl Edwards12/1
Denny Hamlin12/1
Kevin Harvick12/1
Kyle Busch12/1
Joey Logano15/1
Tony Stewart15/1
Jamie McMurray20/1
Kasey Kahne20/1
Clint Bowyer25/1
Kurt Busch25/1
Field (Any Other Driver)25/1
Greg Biffle30/1
Kyle Larson30/1
Martin Truex Jr.30/1
Ryan Newman35/1
Austin Dillon40/1
Paul Menard40/1
Aric Almirola50/1
Ricky Stenhouse50/1
Ryan Blaney50/1
Casey Mears60/1
Danica Patrick60/1
AJ Allmendinger75/1
Michael Waltrip75/1
Trevor Bayne75/1
David Ragan100/1
Justin Allgaier100/1
Sam Hornish Jr.100/1
 
Waltrip got like, 2 top 5 finishes in 2013 at Talladega 1 and Daytona 2. Remember him running up front at the end of the 2013 Daytona 500 too but Fox Sports shows he finished 22nd, however led 4 laps.

But in 2014, he was mediocre at best, 16th was his best finish.
 
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