Fair enough, I may be reaching here. Just getting these thoughts out though...
Definitely an uphill battle critiquing anything on Jimmie's resume. I mean he's the most clutch driver I've ever seen. The more I review it...it's just unbelievable really.
The only questionable part I had was how far are we extending out his prime years to the point where he really starts tailing off? It seems it almost had 3 different stages, peak powers from 2006-2010 then some type of moderate fall off around 2014/2015, and then post 2017 severe drop off. I think I am starting to see what you're seeing performance wise for him on that. I still think it would be hard to attribute percentages for, is it driver/team decline or just a bad season?
On competition note, I noticed looking at JJ's career stats, the only time he missed out with dominating season long stats were, the 2012 BK season like you said, and his 2004 29 year old season to Kurt. Compare his numbers to last year's 4 and 18 car full season stats and we're looking awfully similar with 8 wins 20+ top 5s avg finish under 9 for KB and Harv. Just sayin'. Those are some mighty dominating numbers. And none of them ended up with a trophy (different discussion for sure).
I've been thinking about this too, but 2016 Homestead basically seals how much more clutch Jimmie has been than KB (in these moments). Small snippet, but it's almost the perfect matchup of the 18 going against the 48 after 22/19 wiping each other out, KB in his "prime" and JJ at the tail end, and Jimmie still came out on top for #7. That's a massive ding to Kyle when it comes to goat discussion vs JJ imo.
I think anything JJ related here is fair game, since it's mostly a wait and see prediction thread of when he may or may not hang it up, and how that may go.
It's been pretty painful watching him mid-packing it and the slow slide backward constantly. This is in direct contradiction to my OP rant on Jimmie, but it's still within the realm of possibility JJ has a serious resurgence if him and Cliff start clicking and HMS gains an edge on this package, or the next one. I find it an extremely tall order given the driving style issue and how quickly it would need to happen, but I hope he does prove me wrong, it would be awesome to see unfold. He's still in great physical shape, so that's a plus if he can get something going.