How much longer for 7 Time?

BobbyFord said:
Jimmie isn’t winning now because of the cars? Don’t the other HMS drivers have wins?
Kurt is what, two years younger than JJ?
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Elliott won a plate race. In Bowman's win, the 48 was right there with him much of the race. Yes, Kurt won A race. Let's not throw a party just yet. I'm not saying Jimmie is the driver he was ten years ago, but I think if you give him a car that CAN win more than once every couple months, he WILL win.
 
Formerjackman said:
Elliott won a plate race. In Bowman's win, the 48 was right there with him much of the night. Yes, Kurt won A race. Let's not throw a party just yet. I'm not saying Jimmie is the driver he was ten years ago, but I think if you give him a car that CAN win more than once every couple months, he WILL win.
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A few posts ago you suggested that all HMS equipment is the same. Why isn’t JJ winning then?

I think it’s pretty obvious that neither of us are going to change our opinion.
 
BobbyFord said:
A few posts ago you suggested that all HMS equipment is the same. Why isn’t JJ winning then?

I think it’s pretty obvious that neither of us are going to change our opinion.
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I think right now, getting a HMS car that is CAPABLE of winning a race is like winning the lottery, with the exception of the plate tracks which is its own kind of lottery. I don't think you can fairly characterize a plate win and ONE week where the HMS seemed to get it right as evidence that the teammates are winning and he isn't. And then you have the crew chief factor. Obviously HMS thinks that a different crew chief will close the gap between Jimmie and his teammates.
 
Formerjackman said:
I think right now, getting a HMS car that is CAPABLE of winning a race is like winning the lottery, with the exception of the plate tracks which is its own kind of lottery. I don't think you can fairly characterize a plate win and ONE week where the HMS seemed to get it right as evidence that the teammates are winning and he isn't. And then you have the crew chief factor. Obviously HMS thinks that a different crew chief will close the gap between Jimmie and his teammates.
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...or just hire Kurt Busch.
 
Chase has won I guess he better then JJ so has bowmen I guess he better too! Let me guess when these guys win it’s luck but with JJ it’s all JJ give me a break with this dude already! You got these youngins winning over there and JJ getting lapped ... only sport in the world the can’t let go from the past! His crew chief even moved on he is a bum now..
 
Thegeneral23 said:
Chase has won I guess he better then JJ so has bowmen I guess he better too! Let me guess when these guys win it’s luck but with JJ it’s all JJ give me a break with this dude already! You got these youngins winning over there and JJ getting lapped ... only sport in the world the can’t let go from the past! His crew chief even moved on he is a bum now..
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Please pay attention here. Chase won a plate race, which doesn't mean squat in the context of what we are talking about. Chase has been better than Jimmie most of the time, but not a whole lot better, and HE has Alan Gustafson on the pit box. Yes, Bowman won at Chicago, but Jimmie finished fourth there and led laps, and Byron and Elliott finished in the top 11, so on a weekend where HMS obviously did something right and gave the drivers some decent equipment, Jimmie more than held his own against his teammates . At times he was the fastest car, but I think the track got away from, which highlights the crew chief issue. As I said, no I don't think Jimmie is the driver he was ten years ago, BUT the cars are also not as good as then, and he doesn't have a 35 year old Chad Knaus on the box either. I have no doubt that given a decent car and a decent crew chief, he can STILL win races and maybe compete for a title. You won't convince me that his skills have diminished any more than Kevin Harvick's or Kurt Busch's have.
 
Formerjackman said:
Please pay attention here. Chase won a plate race, which doesn't mean squat in the context of what we are talking about. Chase has been better than Jimmie most of the time, but not a whole lot better, and HE has Alan Gustafson on the pit box. Yes, Bowman won at Chicago, but Jimmie finished fourth there and led laps, and Byron and Elliott finished in the top 11, so on a weekend where HMS obviously did something right and gave the drivers some decent equipment, Jimmie more than held his own against his teammates . At times he was the fastest car, but I think the track got away from, which highlights the crew chief issue. As I said, no I don't think Jimmie is the driver he was ten years ago, BUT the cars are also not as good as then, and he doesn't have a 35 year old Chad Knaus on the box either. I have no doubt that given a decent car and a decent crew chief, he can STILL win races and maybe compete for a title. You won't convince me that his skills have diminished any more than Kevin Harvick's or Kurt Busch's have.
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Now include JJ's winless 2018 when Chad was on the box and Chase has 3 wins on varied tracks.

JJ is not a victim.
 
jaqua19 said:
So if other drivers styles doesn't fit JJ's cars..and they would be less successful in his cars...and he went on to dominate for over a decade...doesn't that mean he has some talent?

I genuinely thought that from 2005-2016 it was a consensus (albeit unpopular) opinion that Jimmie was the most talented "race car driver" in NASCAR. The whole "not as rawly talented" argument is tired. The best driver in the best equipment is going to win a lot. And of course he has an advantage. 18 and 19 and 4 have been the most dominant drivers since 2015. Best cars relative to the field every week like the 48 sort of had. Jimmie performed better than any driver in the "best equipment did".

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This often gets overlooked in JJ's set back, but a lot of driver's came into their own and some developed into their prime over the last 5-6 years. 2 elite driver's were finally able to reach elite equipment on all levels (speaking of both Harvick and Truex). We saw what they did with it, IT WAS A BEATDOWN ON THE FIELD. Combine that with KB developing into his prime in 2015 post injury on consistency. Logano coming into his own and Penske getting back to their dominant ways, between him and BK, and it's sort of easy to see how JJ got pushed off the mountain of dominance he was on. The 4, 78, 18, 22, 2, and even the 19 with Edwards in 2016.... something had to give and it gave on HMS after their epic run, understandable, not enough room for everyone and things naturally change over time.

The 18 is his biggest threat to his overall numbers, he has A LOT of racing left to do and is one of the best "momentum style" driver's. He's extremely unlikely to go on a run like JJ did based on a Homestead superbowl situation, that is likely to stand as the goat playoff run for a very very long time. I suspect some will cling to the nostalgia of the mid and late 2000's with JG and JJ and JR no matter the results, that's very sport fan esk. Regardless, it's been incredible career for JJ. Much respect. Still possible he gets more wins here. I personally don't see a return to dominance, but possibly a win or two or three, it's hard to win in cup no matter. Will be interesting to see what this new crew chief change does with Cliff. It does seem HMS is on the rise again...somewhat.
 
Ventisca said:
Now include JJ's winless 2018 when Chad was on the box and Chase has 3 wins on varied tracks.

JJ is not a victim.
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I'm not painting him as a victim, there is no doubt he has underachieved as of late, and he has to take some of the blame for that, BUT unlike you, I don't think it is a hopeless situation. IF the HMS cars get better, and IF the new crew chief is a better fit for him, I think Jimmie can once again be a winning driver. A dominant driver? Probably not, but lets be honest, with the current format, just like 2016, a couple of wins in the right spots can make you a champion.
 
Turtle84 said:
This often gets overlooked in JJ's set back, but a lot of driver's came into their own and some developed into their prime over the last 5-6 years. 2 elite driver's were finally able to reach elite equipment on all levels (speaking of both Harvick and Truex). We saw what they did with it, IT WAS A BEATDOWN ON THE FIELD. Combine that with KB developing into his prime in 2015 post injury on consistency. Logano coming into his own and Penske getting back to their dominant ways, between him and BK, and it's sort of easy to see how JJ got pushed off the mountain of dominance he was on. The 4, 78, 18, 22, 2, and even the 19 with Edwards in 2016.... something had to give and it gave on HMS after their epic run, understandable, not enough room for everyone and things naturally change over time.

The 18 is his biggest threat to his overall numbers, he has A LOT of racing left to do and is one of the best "momentum style" driver's. He's extremely unlikely to go on a run like JJ did based on a Homestead superbowl situation, that is likely to stand as the goat playoff run for a very very long time. I suspect some will cling to the nostalgia of the mid and late 2000's with JG and JJ and JR no matter the results, that's very sport fan esk. Regardless, it's been incredible career for JJ. Much respect. Still possible he gets more wins here. I personally don't see a return to dominance, but possibly a win or two or three, it's hard to win in cup no matter. Will be interesting to see what this new crew chief change does with Cliff. It does seem HMS is on the rise again...somewhat.
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Your right, and a good ladder has steps going up to the top on one side and back to the bottom of the other. I still say change the cars and you change the drivers who dominate.
 
Turtle84 said:
This often gets overlooked in JJ's set back, but a lot of driver's came into their own and some developed into their prime over the last 5-6 years. 2 elite driver's were finally able to reach elite equipment on all levels (speaking of both Harvick and Truex). We saw what they did with it, IT WAS A BEATDOWN ON THE FIELD. Combine that with KB developing into his prime in 2015 post injury on consistency. Logano coming into his own and Penske getting back to their dominant ways, between him and BK, and it's sort of easy to see how JJ got pushed off the mountain of dominance he was on. The 4, 78, 18, 22, 2, and even the 19 with Edwards in 2016.... something had to give and it gave on HMS after their epic run, understandable, not enough room for everyone and things naturally change over time.

The 18 is his biggest threat to his overall numbers, he has A LOT of racing left to do and is one of the best "momentum style" driver's. He's extremely unlikely to go on a run like JJ did based on a Homestead superbowl situation, that is likely to stand as the goat playoff run for a very very long time. I suspect some will cling to the nostalgia of the mid and late 2000's with JG and JJ and JR no matter the results, that's very sport fan esk. Regardless, it's been incredible career for JJ. Much respect. Still possible he gets more wins here. I personally don't see a return to dominance, but possibly a win or two or three, it's hard to win in cup no matter. Will be interesting to see what this new crew chief change does with Cliff. It does seem HMS is on the rise again...somewhat.
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I think Kyle has a chance to be the GOAT of his generation. Jimmie is the last of the Winston Cup guys/early Chase, so that’s his generation.The problem I see he will never go on a run like Jimmie due to the Homestead-Bowl that decides a champion. It’s too random. I’d be happy if Kyle won maybe two more Cups, this system isn’t conducive to dynasties. We’ve never even had a repeat champ since Jimmie finished his run...which is sad and what I’ve been saying all along this playoff system is screwing/has screwed with driver legacies..but that’s a whole different convo for a different time.
 
Formerjackman said:
Please pay attention here. Chase won a plate race, which doesn't mean squat in the context of what we are talking about. Chase has been better than Jimmie most of the time, but not a whole lot better, and HE has Alan Gustafson on the pit box. Yes, Bowman won at Chicago, but Jimmie finished fourth there and led laps, and Byron and Elliott finished in the top 11, so on a weekend where HMS obviously did something right and gave the drivers some decent equipment, Jimmie more than held his own against his teammates . At times he was the fastest car, but I think the track got away from, which highlights the crew chief issue. As I said, no I don't think Jimmie is the driver he was ten years ago, BUT the cars are also not as good as then, and he doesn't have a 35 year old Chad Knaus on the box either. I have no doubt that given a decent car and a decent crew chief, he can STILL win races and maybe compete for a title. You won't convince me that his skills have diminished any more than Kevin Harvick's or Kurt Busch's have.
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Worth noting.... Since Chase has been in the cup series...

Chase: 4 wins 0 titles
Jimmie: 8 wins 1 title

Chase has been better week to week. But he's been less successful

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Turtle84 said:
This often gets overlooked in JJ's set back, but a lot of driver's came into their own and some developed into their prime over the last 5-6 years. 2 elite driver's were finally able to reach elite equipment on all levels (speaking of both Harvick and Truex). We saw what they did with it, IT WAS A BEATDOWN ON THE FIELD. Combine that with KB developing into his prime in 2015 post injury on consistency. Logano coming into his own and Penske getting back to their dominant ways, between him and BK, and it's sort of easy to see how JJ got pushed off the mountain of dominance he was on. The 4, 78, 18, 22, 2, and even the 19 with Edwards in 2016.... something had to give and it gave on HMS after their epic run, understandable, not enough room for everyone and things naturally change over time.

The 18 is his biggest threat to his overall numbers, he has A LOT of racing left to do and is one of the best "momentum style" driver's. He's extremely unlikely to go on a run like JJ did based on a Homestead superbowl situation, that is likely to stand as the goat playoff run for a very very long time. I suspect some will cling to the nostalgia of the mid and late 2000's with JG and JJ and JR no matter the results, that's very sport fan esk. Regardless, it's been incredible career for JJ. Much respect. Still possible he gets more wins here. I personally don't see a return to dominance, but possibly a win or two or three, it's hard to win in cup no matter. Will be interesting to see what this new crew chief change does with Cliff. It does seem HMS is on the rise again...somewhat.
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KB has been in his prime since 2008 imo. He's got longevity. Also, good drivers getting good equipment and spanking the field with the newer packages was also at the tail end of Jimmie's run. My point was that they aren't having the success Jimmie did. He beat down on all those guys, Including Stewart and Gordon (who were better than your loganos, Harvick's Joey, etc)

Stewart is a 3x champion, and won 2 titles during the Jimmie era in his prime. I'd wager Tony at his best is the best driver in NASCAR today. Put today's 18, 19, 4 back in 2006, and 48 still wins 5 in a row.

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Snappy D said:
I think Kyle has a chance to be the GOAT of his generation. Jimmie is the last of the Winston Cup guys/early Chase, so that’s his generation.The problem I see he will never go on a run like Jimmie due to the Homestead-Bowl that decides a champion. It’s too random. I’d be happy if Kyle won maybe two more Cups, this system isn’t conducive to dynasties. We’ve never even had a repeat champ since Jimmie finished his run...which is sad and what I’ve been saying all along this playoff system is screwing/has screwed with driver legacies..but that’s a whole different convo for a different time.
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The issue with this is as follows... Kyle cant be the best of his generation cause he is Jimmie's generation.

Kyle is an early chase guy. I feel this gets overlooked. When Kyle was a rookie, Johnson only had 14 wins, and no titles.

He won almost 70 races, and out won Kyle by almost 30 for a decade. Won all 7 of his titles against Kyle Busch.

Kyle may come close to his win totals, but that's it. Win percentage, titles, records, etc. On top of being beat for a decade, Kyle had a ceiling on the all time list below the top 5

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Hmmm, that's some good bait. Maybe SamBu dropped another "tasteful" photo on Instagram and they're distracted this morning.
 
jaqua19 said:
The issue with this is as follows... Kyle cant be the best of his generation cause he is Jimmie's generation.

Kyle is an early chase guy. I feel this gets overlooked. When Kyle was a rookie, Johnson only had 14 wins, and no titles.

He won almost 70 races, and out won Kyle by almost 30 for a decade. Won all 7 of his titles against Kyle Busch.

Kyle may come close to his win totals, but that's it. Win percentage, titles, records, etc. On top of being beat for a decade, Kyle had a ceiling on the all time list below the top 5

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Standing ovation. I can’t even retort that. I always thought of Kyle from 08 on when he burst on that scene at 23 years old and 8 wins. He looked like 98 Gordon there for a while during that season. You’re right.....in the context you put it in JJ beat them all. And if Earnhardt had survived 01 you figure JJ would have raced him till about 03. And JJ almost won the Winston Cup his first two seasons. What I’m saying is your thesis of breaking things down historically is really neat. Well done you know your stuff.
 
It is surprising that Johnson hasn't won a race in two years. A successful driver is one part of a successful team and the Hendrick part of the equation has fallen off in the last couple of years. One part of racing is that drivers and teams rise and fall over time. I think Jimmie is still capable of winning but time and equipment is working against him. I hope he can get another win like Gordon and Stewart did during the end of their driving careers.
 
I have a good question...Kyle Busch is now 34 with 55 Cup wins. Jimmie is 43 with 83 Cup wins. Will Kyle end his career with more wins than Johnson?

I say no because if Jimmie can win a couple more and get to 85 wins, Kyle would have to win 3 races a year for the next ten years (at the end of which he'll be 44 years old). Averaging 3 wins a year for ten years is a very challenging feat. I'm not saying Kyle will never win 6+ races a season, and I'm not saying he'll go on a multi-year winless streak. But nothing is forever and Joe Gibbs will slump, as no team is ever as dominant as JGR is for very long before someone else comes along.
 
Snappy D said:
Standing ovation. I can’t even retort that. I always thought of Kyle from 08 on when he burst on that scene at 23 years old and 8 wins. He looked like 98 Gordon there for a while during that season. You’re right.....in the context you put it in JJ beat them all. And if Earnhardt had survived 01 you figure JJ would have raced him till about 03. And JJ almost won the Winston Cup his first two seasons. What I’m saying is your thesis of breaking things down historically is really neat. Well done you know your stuff.
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I have a hyperanalytical mind, so it's really all in good fun.

And this is no knock against Kyle whatsoever. Kyle is a lock as a top 10 driver all time, at minimum imo. His career draws A LOT of parallels with Tony Stewart. I honestly see KB as a Tony Stewart who started his career younger. Win percentage, they've been the same. Almost. Believe it or not, Tony Stewart won 45 races quicker than Kyle Busch did. Tony Stewart is a 3 time champion. Compared to Tony's number of seasons, Kyle has a few more wins, and two less titles. VERY similar. What Kyle has over Tony(and arguably anyone imo aside from Gordon) is youth and longevity. Kyles prime started in 08 and will go probably until 2022ish. His win numbers will increase to 76+, and he'll probably win another title and end his cup career with DW and Cale kind of numbers...a younger, more durable version of Tony Stewart who lasts longer and doesn't win championships as often.

Tony is a top 10 driver all time imo, we know where Gordon stands, and what Kyle Busch will become. This imo is what makes Johnson the GOAT. During his prime, he dominated all three of those guys...a top 10 all time guy, an inevitable top 6 all time guy, and a top 5 guy. All the other greats, Petty, Gordon and Dale had challengers beat them down eventually and start racing them and winning multiple titles. Dale to Petty. Gordon started winning multiple titles against Dale. Tony Stewart against Gordon. Jimmie had no challengers until his prime has passed and he is on the tail end of his career. The fact that he may retire with no other driver winning more than one title between his first championship and retirement is absurd.

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Speedbowl14 said:
I have a good question...Kyle Busch is now 34 with 55 Cup wins. Jimmie is 43 with 83 Cup wins. Will Kyle end his career with more wins than Johnson?

I say no because if Jimmie can win a couple more and get to 85 wins, Kyle would have to win 3 races a year for the next ten years (at the end of which he'll be 44 years old). Averaging 3 wins a year for ten years is a very challenging feat. I'm not saying Kyle will never win 6+ races a season, and I'm not saying he'll go on a multi-year winless streak. But nothing is forever and Joe Gibbs will slump, as no team is ever as dominant as JGR is for very long before someone else comes along.
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He honestly may. Kyle could get to 85-90 but it depends on how he ages.

The difference is win percentage though, and it took the decline of Johnson, Stewart, and Gordon before Kyle became THE guy.

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Turtle84 said:
Combination of everything honestly. Started with HMS fall off, then driving style turned upside down and losing Knaus. What worked for him no longer works anymore. Not getting the cars he once did, resource loss on Lowe's leaving.

It's no knock on Jimmie, nobody stays on top forever. I long thought he would try to stick it out as long as he could to try for his 8th championship, but seeing what's happening now....I don't think it will be long. It reminds me of how cringey it was to watch Stewart mid-packing or worse when they pulled horsepower out of the car, it killed the edge he had on throttle control, and he never ran the same again, I think the same is happening here with JJ. Essentially being phased out. ...Just my thoughts.
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I don't want to see another driver go through what happened to Stewart those last couple years (Win at Sonoma aside). Those were some rough years as a Stewart fan, and I think other drivers took note that they were over the hill as far as talent (Gordon, Earnhardt Jr, McMurray, even Edwards a bit).
 
I just don't buy age as the reason for this. Kevin is the same age and doesn't care of his body to the same degree as Jimmie, but he's still a top driver. I think it's 75% HMS' fault, 25% Jimmie being psychologically rattled.
 
Joker said:
I just don't buy age as the reason for this. Kevin is the same age and doesn't care of his body to the same degree as Jimmie, but he's still a top driver. I think it's 75% HMS' fault, 25% Jimmie being psychologically rattled.
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Idk if he's rattled

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jaqua19 said:
KB has been in his prime since 2008 imo. He's got longevity. Also, good drivers getting good equipment and spanking the field with the newer packages was also at the tail end of Jimmie's run. My point was that they aren't having the success Jimmie did. He beat down on all those guys, Including Stewart and Gordon (who were better than your loganos, Harvick's Joey, etc)

Stewart is a 3x champion, and won 2 titles during the Jimmie era in his prime. I'd wager Tony at his best is the best driver in NASCAR today. Put today's 18, 19, 4 back in 2006, and 48 still wins 5 in a row.

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Many many good points in your posts. Healthy amount of disagreement here, but all in good fun discussion and different perspectives.

I'll preface this by saying, this isn't meant to knock down the 48, or prop up the 18, or anyone else...just my thoughts of what I've seen over the years...

Starting the clock on KB in 2008 I think is fair, he failed going h2h against JJ in that time period through 2013 (as many did), this is also why I mention he did not develop into the complete driver he is now until 2015 imo. To me, that is when truly entered his "prime" at age 30, currently in his prime at age 34, often the pre-race odds on favorite, in probably the best equipment car wise. It took KB some time to reach his full potential imo, and JGR/Toyota to advance the 18 to where it's at today.

Young KB, showed flashes of what he could do and how hot he could run stringing wins together. I never saw him as a championship threat though, it was too much all or nothing inconsistency from what I saw, that seemed to change radically from 2015 onward from my eyes. He gained patience and started racing smarter with a bigger picture mentality. I think if JJ had to go up against him now it would be a tougher battle versus when he was age 23/24. In 2008, JJ was age 32/33 sitting their in his prime, in HMS's brightest days, with 4 full cup seasons under his belt. KB was not ready to championship, even being the prodigy talent that he was.

Does that give KB a pass for his 20's? Not really. When I go back to evaluate KB's career to see where he stacks up, I won't be giving him a pass for that time period.

There's no denying Jimmie's run and the competition he beat up on...the big names won't be able to be replicated with the nostalgia that surrounds them. Although I think Truex, Harvick, Logano, Keselowski, and Edwards were and are plenty good enough to be on par with that competition level, perhaps that perception changes in time after retirement.

Here's where I disagree more. Jimmie's tail end from 2014-2017. I can't see crediting him with a steep decline when he was still pulling in 3-5 wins a year.

Those years still count against JJ, they weren't laying down and letting anyone take over. The 4 and 78 were created for the sole reason to pry it from them, and the 18 took a step up. The Big 3 squeezed everyone's chances at winning. Add Logano, Keselowski, and Edwards into the mix. It became much harder for Jimmie and HMS to blow everyone out of the water imo. Unsurprisingly none of them will have the singular success of the 48's run, it took a group effort to take him down a notch and that's a compliment. Again, I think it's less about Jimmie's drop off, versus the competition stepping up their game, getting the right driver's into the right equipment, and certain driver's coming into their own on their own time table.

From mid-2017 through now, I would say have been Jimmie's twilight years barring some type of miraculous resurgence here.
 
The stats show that JJ has been the most dominate driver in Nascar (all time in this era) and I doubt anyone will surpass him.
 
Turtle84 said:
Many many good points in your posts. Healthy amount of disagreement here, but all in good fun discussion and different perspectives.

I'll preface this by saying, this isn't meant to knock down the 48, or prop up the 18, or anyone else...just my thoughts of what I've seen over the years...

Starting the clock on KB in 2008 I think is fair, he failed going h2h against JJ in that time period through 2013 (as many did), this is also why I mention he did not develop into the complete driver he is now until 2015 imo. To me, that is when truly entered his "prime" at age 30, currently in his prime at age 34, often the pre-race odds on favorite, in probably the best equipment car wise. It took KB some time to reach his full potential imo, and JGR/Toyota to advance the 18 to where it's at today.

Young KB, showed flashes of what he could do and how hot he could run stringing wins together. I never saw him as a championship threat though, it was too much all or nothing inconsistency from what I saw, that seemed to change radically from 2015 onward from my eyes. He gained patience and started racing smarter with a bigger picture mentality. I think if JJ had to go up against him now it would be a tougher battle versus when he was age 23/24. In 2008, JJ was age 32/33 sitting their in his prime, in HMS's brightest days, with 4 full cup seasons under his belt. KB was not ready to championship, even being the prodigy talent that he was.

Does that give KB a pass for his 20's? Not really. When I go back to evaluate KB's career to see where he stacks up, I won't be giving him a pass for that time period.

There's no denying Jimmie's run and the competition he beat up on...the big names won't be able to be replicated with the nostalgia that surrounds them. Although I think Truex, Harvick, Logano, Keselowski, and Edwards were and are plenty good enough to be on par with that competition level, perhaps that perception changes in time after retirement.

Here's where I disagree more. Jimmie's tail end from 2014-2017. I can't see crediting him with a steep decline when he was still pulling in 3-5 wins a year.

Those years still count against JJ, they weren't laying down and letting anyone take over. The 4 and 78 were created for the sole reason to pry it from them, and the 18 took a step up. The Big 3 squeezed everyone's chances at winning. Add Logano, Keselowski, and Edwards into the mix. It became much harder for Jimmie and HMS to blow everyone out of the water imo. Unsurprisingly none of them will have the singular success of the 48's run, it took a group effort to take him down a notch and that's a compliment. Again, I think it's less about Jimmie's drop off, versus the competition stepping up their game, getting the right driver's into the right equipment, and certain driver's coming into their own on their own time table.

From mid-2017 through now, I would say have been Jimmie's twilight years barring some type of miraculous resurgence here.
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Good points.

But Kyle's best season prior to last year was 2008. Obviously a 24 year old driver is still raw..but it didn't stop Jeff Gordon at the same age from matching Dale WHEN he was winning championships. Kyle had the talent a young Gordon did. Gordon was able to win titles against Dale when Dale was still competitive. Kyle couldn't do that until Johnson started to decline.

And while Jimmie was winning 3-5 races a year from 2014-2017, he was still declining. Top 5s, top 10s, average finish, consistency, laps lead..all those are down. The new big 3 of Harvick Busch and Truex didn't keep him from running consistently in the top 5-10 like prior years. If Jimmie was still performing at 2004-2013 level during 14-17, and they matched him, okay. But he wasn't. Coincidentally, that big three rose to power while his top 5s, top 10s and laps lead were down. So yeah, 14-17 is a decline on Jimmie's part, and his lack of title contention is more attributed to that than the competition raising. I think teams got better WHILE the 48 declined. If the 48 was still in their primes as a team, I think he'd be above that big 3 from 14-17 (won a title, and just as many races, so it's a big 4).

It's not as if he couldn't be competitive teams. 2007, Gordon has 30 top 10s, 24 top 5s, 6 wins. Better than the big 3. 2008. Carl Edwards 9 wins, 27 top 10s 21 top 5s. Bigger than any season the big 3 had. Hamlin and Harvick in 10. Kenseth in 13..

So I disagree, the leveling of competition isn't just because teams got better and caught up to Jimmie.. Jimmie beat drivers for titles who had better seasons than any of the big 3 of today. The top 5s, top 10s, etc show that the 48 team was declining in 2014-2017. The last two years they've fallen off.

I think we are just using two perspectives on the same point.

But as far as Kyle, he's always been this talented. Something I noticed with him, and I think it illustrates a point of him at his best being just a notch below the GOATS.

Someone had said that it got to a point that whenever the 48 was in the top two or three at the end of a race on a late restart, the race was in question. Cause he's stollen about 30 races that way.

Kyle Busch has begun to have that same aura. That same sort of fear. The difference is that he doesnt always win in that scenario. Neither did the 48, but it's less frequently than he did. And I think that illustrates the point. At their peaks, Kyle is still a bit below was Jimmie was. And Jimmie prevented a lot of these guys from reaching their peaks for a long time

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jaqua19 said:
Good points.

But Kyle's best season prior to last year was 2008. Obviously a 24 year old driver is still raw..but it didn't stop Jeff Gordon at the same age from matching Dale WHEN he was winning championships. Kyle had the talent a young Gordon did. Gordon was able to win titles against Dale when Dale was still competitive. Kyle couldn't do that until Johnson started to decline.

And while Jimmie was winning 3-5 races a year from 2014-2017, he was still declining. Top 5s, top 10s, average finish, consistency, laps lead..all those are down. The new big 3 of Harvick Busch and Truex didn't keep him from running consistently in the top 5-10 like prior years. If Jimmie was still performing at 2004-2013 level during 14-17, and they matched him, okay. But he wasn't. Coincidentally, that big three rose to power while his top 5s, top 10s and laps lead were down. So yeah, 14-17 is a decline on Jimmie's part, and his lack of title contention is more attributed to that than the competition raising. I think teams got better WHILE the 48 declined. If the 48 was still in their primes as a team, I think he'd be above that big 3 from 14-17 (won a title, and just as many races, so it's a big 4).

It's not as if he couldn't be competitive teams. 2007, Gordon has 30 top 10s, 24 top 5s, 6 wins. Better than the big 3. 2008. Carl Edwards 9 wins, 27 top 10s 21 top 5s. Bigger than any season the big 3 had. Hamlin and Harvick in 10. Kenseth in 13..

So I disagree, the leveling of competition isn't just because teams got better and caught up to Jimmie.. Jimmie beat drivers for titles who had better seasons than any of the big 3 of today. The top 5s, top 10s, etc show that the 48 team was declining in 2014-2017. The last two years they've fallen off.

I think we are just using two perspectives on the same point.

But as far as Kyle, he's always been this talented. Something I noticed with him, and I think it illustrates a point of him at his best being just a notch below the GOATS.

Someone had said that it got to a point that whenever the 48 was in the top two or three at the end of a race on a late restart, the race was in question. Cause he's stollen about 30 races that way.

Kyle Busch has begun to have that same aura. That same sort of fear. The difference is that he doesnt always win in that scenario. Neither did the 48, but it's less frequently than he did. And I think that illustrates the point. At their peaks, Kyle is still a bit below was Jimmie was. And Jimmie prevented a lot of these guys from reaching their peaks for a long time

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Dang yeah we'd go back and forth on this forever.

What Jeff did, at the age he did it, I can't hold Kyle to that one. I don't think it was a pure Dale/Jeff situation... JJ had just started ascending the ranks and stringing together championships. Kyle had the ability and opportunity to dethrone him, but didn't. That is not forgotten. Even if he does approach their overall win totals.

I don't have a strong feeling that JJ kept KB from reaching his prime faster than he would have otherwise on maturity level, I think it would have been more likely that someone else would have filled the role of champion if he had faultered, maybe Hamlin Edwards Mark or Jeff.

Jimmie won his 6th championship in 2013 in fairly dominating fashion leading almost 2,000 laps with 6 wins. He returns in 2014, and suddenly he's on the decline? After 4 wins, 1300 laps led, and 20 top 10s? I think not. I think they got beat straight up by Harvick and the Penske duo. That would account for his statistical decline.

Jimmie was still competitive in 2015 as well, 5 win season 24 top 10s 14 top 5s. So I just don't buy that KB didn't get a Championship while JJ was still "competitive".

And, then claiming a 7th championship in 2016, how can he claim on "the decline" while claiming a championship to add to his legacy?
 
Turtle84 said:
Dang yeah we'd go back and forth on this forever.

What Jeff did, at the age he did it, I can't hold Kyle to that one. I don't think it was a pure Dale/Jeff situation... JJ had just started ascending the ranks and stringing together championships. Kyle had the ability and opportunity to dethrone him, but didn't. That is not forgotten. Even if he does approach their overall win totals.

I don't have a strong feeling that JJ kept KB from reaching his prime faster than he would have otherwise on maturity level, I think it would have been more likely that someone else would have filled the role of champion if he had faultered, maybe Hamlin Edwards Mark or Jeff.

Jimmie won his 6th championship in 2013 in fairly dominating fashion leading almost 2,000 laps with 6 wins. He returns in 2014, and suddenly he's on the decline? After 4 wins, 1300 laps led, and 20 top 10s? I think not. I think they got beat straight up by Harvick and the Penske duo. That would account for his statistical decline.

Jimmie was still competitive in 2015 as well, 5 win season 24 top 10s 14 top 5s. So I just don't buy that KB didn't get a Championship while JJ was still "competitive".

And, then claiming a 7th championship in 2016, how can he claim on "the decline" while claiming a championship to add to his legacy?
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To the last point...well because he got the championship dude! If we are talking about legacy.. #7 is all that's needed. Lol obviously there was some favorable circumstances for that race, they weren't the fastest car all year. They were during the chase, but not all year.

As far as 14 and 15, didn't realize he had 20 and 22 top 10s (not 24, it's 22). B And like I said. Average finish.

His average finish in 2014 was 15.3. Consistent performance wasn't there. lowest of his career. 1310 laps lead, one of the lowest of his non championship years (2012, which I'll get to)

2015.. 12.8 average finish, second worst since his first championship, 558 laps lead. Lowest of his career. Again, Harvick, Penske did not keep him from running below his form on a weekly basis.

You wanna bring light to a team beating Jimmie in his prime? Brad K in 2012. THAT was a car and driver who beat JJ in just about champion/5 in a row form. Then JJ followed up 2013 with domination and being the only driver since 2012 to score multiple titles. Again, not sure how to counter that, but again, The Jimmie beat by Harvick and Busch in 2015 is NOT the same 48 team as 2012, nevermind 2006-2010.. so it certainly doesn't reflect what these teams could do against the 48 at their best. You cannot attribute those cars for the reason why Jimmie had two of the lowest average finishes of his career, and two of the lowest laps lead.

I didn't believe Kyle didn't get a title while JJ wasn't competitive. He was competitive. He just didn't get it while Jimmie was at the peak of his powers. Cause he didn't. That was my point. And you acknowledged it earlier. My above points illustrated that 2014 and 2015 were two of the worse seasons he's had. Harvick, Busch and the Penske cars are not responsible for the drop on average finish. You can find multiple cars through out the years who put up similar numbers to the championship drivers from 2014 onward. It isn't the same each year, but he beat a driver or two who performed like that almost every year. 2007 was Gordon's year. 2008 was Edwards and busches year, 2009 was Stewart's year (till the last 12) 2010 was Harvick and Hamlin's year, 2012 was his and Brad's year (this one is big)

I also don't want to derail the thread too much, but I genuinely feel you are climbing an uphill battle here my dude ;) I'll read your reply then agree to disagree if you'd like to leave it at that. All in good fun and I still appreciate that there's people here to discuss this with! Don't get this opportunity in MA.

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Joker said:
I just don't buy age as the reason for this. Kevin is the same age and doesn't care of his body to the same degree as Jimmie, but he's still a top driver. I think it's 75% HMS' fault, 25% Jimmie being psychologically rattled.
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Johnson is just comfortable he's achieved to the point where he has nothing left to give.
 
jaqua19 said:
To the last point...well because he got the championship dude! If we are talking about legacy.. #7 is all that's needed. Lol obviously there was some favorable circumstances for that race, they weren't the fastest car all year. They were during the chase, but not all year.

As far as 14 and 15, didn't realize he had 20 and 22 top 10s (not 24, it's 22). B And like I said. Average finish.

His average finish in 2014 was 15.3. Consistent performance wasn't there. lowest of his career. 1310 laps lead, one of the lowest of his non championship years (2012, which I'll get to)

2015.. 12.8 average finish, second worst since his first championship, 558 laps lead. Lowest of his career. Again, Harvick, Penske did not keep him from running below his form on a weekly basis.

You wanna bring light to a team beating Jimmie in his prime? Brad K in 2012. THAT was a car and driver who beat JJ in just about champion/5 in a row form. Then JJ followed up 2013 with domination and being the only driver since 2012 to score multiple titles. Again, not sure how to counter that, but again, The Jimmie beat by Harvick and Busch in 2015 is NOT the same 48 team as 2012, nevermind 2006-2010.. so it certainly doesn't reflect what these teams could do against the 48 at their best. You cannot attribute those cars for the reason why Jimmie had two of the lowest average finishes of his career, and two of the lowest laps lead.

I didn't believe Kyle didn't get a title while JJ wasn't competitive. He was competitive. He just didn't get it while Jimmie was at the peak of his powers. Cause he didn't. That was my point. And you acknowledged it earlier. My above points illustrated that 2014 and 2015 were two of the worse seasons he's had. Harvick, Busch and the Penske cars are not responsible for the drop on average finish. You can find multiple cars through out the years who put up similar numbers to the championship drivers from 2014 onward. It isn't the same each year, but he beat a driver or two who performed like that almost every year. 2007 was Gordon's year. 2008 was Edwards and busches year, 2009 was Stewart's year (till the last 12) 2010 was Harvick and Hamlin's year, 2012 was his and Brad's year (this one is big)

I also don't want to derail the thread too much, but I genuinely feel you are climbing an uphill battle here my dude ;) I'll read your reply then agree to disagree if you'd like to leave it at that. All in good fun and I still appreciate that there's people here to discuss this with! Don't get this opportunity in MA.

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Fair enough, I may be reaching here. Just getting these thoughts out though...

Definitely an uphill battle critiquing anything on Jimmie's resume. I mean he's the most clutch driver I've ever seen. The more I review it...it's just unbelievable really.

The only questionable part I had was how far are we extending out his prime years to the point where he really starts tailing off? It seems it almost had 3 different stages, peak powers from 2006-2010 then some type of moderate fall off around 2014/2015, and then post 2017 severe drop off. I think I am starting to see what you're seeing performance wise for him on that. I still think it would be hard to attribute percentages for, is it driver/team decline or just a bad season?

On competition note, I noticed looking at JJ's career stats, the only time he missed out with dominating season long stats were, the 2012 BK season like you said, and his 2004 29 year old season to Kurt. Compare his numbers to last year's 4 and 18 car full season stats and we're looking awfully similar with 8 wins 20+ top 5s avg finish under 9 for KB and Harv. Just sayin'. Those are some mighty dominating numbers. And none of them ended up with a trophy (different discussion for sure).

I've been thinking about this too, but 2016 Homestead basically seals how much more clutch Jimmie has been than KB (in these moments). Small snippet, but it's almost the perfect matchup of the 18 going against the 48 after 22/19 wiping each other out, KB in his "prime" and JJ at the tail end, and Jimmie still came out on top for #7. That's a massive ding to Kyle when it comes to goat discussion vs JJ imo.

I think anything JJ related here is fair game, since it's mostly a wait and see prediction thread of when he may or may not hang it up, and how that may go.

It's been pretty painful watching him mid-packing it and the slow slide backward constantly. This is in direct contradiction to my OP rant on Jimmie, but it's still within the realm of possibility JJ has a serious resurgence if him and Cliff start clicking and HMS gains an edge on this package, or the next one. I find it an extremely tall order given the driving style issue and how quickly it would need to happen, but I hope he does prove me wrong, it would be awesome to see unfold. He's still in great physical shape, so that's a plus if he can get something going.
 
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