Analysis: With crew chief change, Hendrick is hedging its bets on Jimmie Johnson’s playoff hopes
By David Smith for The Athletic, July 31, 2019
Hendrick Motorsports replaced Jimmie Johnson’s crew chief because the storied organization is probably as confused by the No. 48 team’s season as you are.
In defense of everyone, the team’s year has been confusing. While Johnson, 44 years old come September, is in the middle of what history suggests is a NASCAR driver’s decline, he’s aging gracefully relative to most drivers. The seven-time champion is averaging a 15.1-place finish with the 17th-fastest car, and when compared to fellow Hendrick driver Chase Elliott — a 15.0-place average with the eighth-fastest car — it appears Johnson is carrying his weight in scoring results. He ranks ninth among all driver in Production in Equal Equipment Rating, indicating as much.
But all isn’t right with his world. For the first time in his career, Johnson is struggling to maintain track position. His minus-1.49 percent surplus passing value ranks as the worst among drivers sitting in the top 10 in PEER and means a driver who recorded sky-high passing numbers during his run of championships is finding it difficult to move around Alex Bowman, Daniel Suárez and Paul Menard — drivers near him most in the running order, on average. This isn’t a sign he’s done, but it might be a clear indication of decline, similar to when Tony Stewart’s once-great intermediate passing numbers disappeared or Matt Kenseth became a track position liability in his final two seasons at Joe Gibbs Racing, solely dependent on elite car speed for his good outings.
Jimmie Johnson’s Surplus Passing Value, 2015-2019
2015 = +2.96% ( 3rd best in Cup Series )
2016 = +2.74% ( 2nd best )
2017 = +3.78% ( 1st best )
2018 = +2.18% ( 3rd best )
2019 = -1.49% ( 22nd best... not a typo )
This likely represents the beginning of the end, but his ability to get those results hasn’t ended — yet. All this means is that it’s much harder to procure good finishes because there are less reliable pathways to getting them.
Kevin Meendering, recently replaced as Johnson’s crew chief, was supposed to create additional pathways, like gaming green-flag pit cycles for additional track position, or alleviate some obvious obstacles, such as coaxing speed out of a No. 48 car that saw a decline in recent seasons. He didn’t. Now, he’s been reassigned to a senior position within Hendrick, because firing him outright would risk an opposing team hiring him solely for intel on what the organization as a whole is doing right behind closed doors.
From the onset, Meendering profiled as a caretaker crew chief, assigned to Elliott Sadler in the Xfinity Series and tasked with keeping the program afloat while Sadler’s contract came to an excruciating end last year with Hendrick affiliate JR Motorsports. There was nothing tantalizing in his statistical profile — he never produced JRM’s fastest car during his tenure there and his green-flag pit strategy output didn’t suggest any deliberate game-planning that’d benefit a driver unable to pass for position — and the hire felt as if he took over the No. 48 team to ensure the wheels stayed on the car while Johnson drove toward the sunset.
But Johnson managed to eke out finishes this year despite the holes surfacing in his driving repertoire. Prior to the Kentucky race weekend, he was in a good spot, with a 13.4-place average finish and a crash frequency that dropped by 30 percentage points from last year. Staying on the track, and depending on mistakes and bad days from the cars routinely in front of him, was key to scoring his finishes, a chief reason why he stood out as a regression candidate for the season’s second half. Three races later, his average result dropped by nearly two positions (from 13.4 to 15.1).
As Johnson’s crew chief, Meendering lived up to his past experiences, defending his driver’s running position on green-flag pit cycles 62 percent of the time — a tick below the series-wide 65 percent rate — while costing him 17 spots on non-drafting ovals, a bottom-nine positional output among all Cup Series crew chiefs. For a driver who needed as much additional track position assistance as he could get, this was a displeasing occurrence begging to be rectified. Meendering could’ve corrected his strategic design, but it’s clear Hendrick brass and/or Johnson weren’t encouraged by the prospect of it happening.
We’ll know how much of a bugbear Meendering’s race-calling was if new crew chief Cliff Daniels proves a polar opposite in the remaining regular-season events with this weekend’s show at Watkins Glen, typically an affair heavy on long runs, serving as an ideal litmus test. Despite staying out five times in seven instances when a green-flag pit cycle coincided with the end of a stage, Meendering secured Johnson points in those situations just once — one point, to be exact, during Sonoma’s first stage — suggesting a need for better initial track position in order to take advantage of a points-oriented strategy.
Daniels might go for broke, a la Keith Rodden in 2017 or Travis Mack in 2018, strategizing in an odd manner, intent on netting a win — and an automatic playoff spot — in the event a race breaks bizarre. He might also focus on more traditional improvements, but increasing the speed of a car — Johnson’s ranks last among Hendrick’s four entries — is a slow-burn development that can’t be expected to complete its motions before the start of the playoffs.
Realistically, there is not much Daniels can do with the five remaining regular-season races and there’s a chance this is understood internally. Hendrick has likely given him a short-term goal of getting Johnson into the playoffs by any means necessary and if all attempts fail, the veteran driver and 31-year-old crew chief will have 15 races to explore and experiment in advance of next season. The Daniels we see across the next five weeks probably won’t be the Daniels we see during the final 10 this season, and if this is indeed the plan brought to him by Hendrick’s competition department, it’s a nice hedge.
Hedging is what happens when there is legitimate confusion, and there isn’t any part of this No. 48 team that can’t be questioned. Regardless, it’s clear Hendrick recognizes what Johnson can and can’t do during the winter of his career and, right by him, moved quickly on a solution that may give the organization’s long-time bellwether a more fitting conclusion.