Silly Season 2020

Unless Alex's performance takes a decided drop off next year, I don't expect him to be going anywhere. Considering the chance HMS took on him in the first place, he has exceeded most people's expectations, has made the playoffs both years in mediocre equipment and he seems to be a good fit on and off the track at HMS. I think it would taking missing the playoffs to actually put his job in jeopardy. It also begs the question, who could you REALISTICALLY get for that seat who is better? Let's be BRUTALLY honest. We are a few years removed from the days when you would leave ANY ride you had to take a seat at HMS.
 
Formerjackman said:
Unless Alex's performance takes a decided drop off next year, I don't expect him to be going anywhere. Considering the chance HMS took on him in the first place, he has exceeded most people's expectations, has made the playoffs both years in mediocre equipment and he seems to be a good fit on and off the track at HMS. I think it would taking missing the playoffs to actually put his job in jeopardy. It also begs the question, who could you REALISTICALLY get for that seat who is better? Let's be BRUTALLY honest. We are a few years removed from the days when you would leave ANY ride you had to take a seat at HMS.
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He's certainly on the level of at least Kahne.
 
Formerjackman said:
Unless Alex's performance takes a decided drop off next year, I don't expect him to be going anywhere. Considering the chance HMS took on him in the first place, he has exceeded most people's expectations, has made the playoffs both years in mediocre equipment and he seems to be a good fit on and off the track at HMS. I think it would taking missing the playoffs to actually put his job in jeopardy. It also begs the question, who could you REALISTICALLY get for that seat who is better? Let's be BRUTALLY honest. We are a few years removed from the days when you would leave ANY ride you had to take a seat at HMS.
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IMO Jones is more at a risk of losing his ride in 2021 than bowman. At least no one is really running that great at HMS. But when everyone else is stacking up wins and made it the final 4 at JGR you're underachieving

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wi_racefan said:
IMO Jones is more at a risk of losing his ride in 2021 than bowman. At least no one is really running that great at HMS. But when everyone else is stacking up wins and made it the final 4 at JGR you're underachieving

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Call me crazy, but a 22/23 year old shouldn't be stacking wins like three future HOFers...

Unless he's Chase Elliot.
 
Joker said:
Call me crazy, but a 22/23 year old shouldn't be stacking wins like three future HOFers...

Unless he's Chase Elliot.
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Well he should sure be better than 16th in pts. You realize the 6 car finished higher in points than him?

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I really don’t understand what NASCAR fans expect when it comes to the young drivers but I’m glad I’m not one lol. A guy doesn’t perform to the level of the most talented driver ever (Kyle Busch), winningest driver the last 5 years (Truex), and best driver without a championship (Hamlin), and it’s off to the guillotine for ya
 
DaBiff1618 said:
I really don’t understand what NASCAR fans expect when it comes to the young drivers but I’m glad I’m not one lol. A guy doesn’t perform to the level of the most talented driver ever (Kyle Busch), winningest driver the last 5 years (Truex), and best driver without a championship (Hamlin), and it’s off to the guillotine for ya
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The Chase Elloitt effect along with the instant success of William Byron coming through the ranks.

Tbh I blame Jeff Gordon's ascent to stardom and every manufacturer wanted their "Jeff Gordon". Remember Kenny Irwin Jr (May he rest in peace), Ford was expecting him to be the "next big thing" without a lot of seat time.

Yet, we call 17, 18, and 19 year olds flops or busts because they may not win for a season or two. Look at Corey Lajoie, I think in a couple of years barring his success with GoFas or FRM or any organization in the future, he will be a growing name in time to come. Remember how much of an issue he was when he was with BK Racing? Crashing, DNQing, etc.
 
Kiante said:
The Chase Elloitt effect along with the instant success of William Byron coming through the ranks.

Tbh I blame Jeff Gordon's ascent to stardom and every manufacturer wanted their "Jeff Gordon". Remember Kenny Irwin Jr (May he rest in peace), Ford was expecting him to be the "next big thing" without a lot of seat time.

Yet, we call 17, 18, and 19 year olds flops or busts because they may not win for a season or two. Look at Corey Lajoie, I think in a couple of years barring his success with GoFas or FRM or any organization in the future, he will be a growing name in time to come. Remember how much of an issue he was when he was with BK Racing? Crashing, DNQing, etc.
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And Casey Atwood, and Reed Sorenson, and countless others.
 
DaBiff1618 said:
I really don’t understand what NASCAR fans expect when it comes to the young drivers but I’m glad I’m not one lol. A guy doesn’t perform to the level of the most talented driver ever (Kyle Busch), winningest driver the last 5 years (Truex), and best driver without a championship (Hamlin), and it’s off to the guillotine for ya
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I for one DON'T expect him to be as good as his teammates, but when you are driving for the highest performing organization, I think you have to be better than he has been. It doesn't mean he isn't a damn good driver, but like everybody keeps saying, it's a performance based business, and if Bell is the phenom everybody seems to be expecting, Jones is going to be under a LOT of pressure. It may make him, it may break him. Ask Suarez what happens when you are the fourth best performing driver on a four car team. It seldom ends well, especially if there is a viable option for a replacement.
 
Jones is gone unless he has a Cole Custer/Bell like season and forces their hand would be my guess. The preacher's bunch has cut and pasted drivers for less.
 
Charlie Spencer said:
Getting cut at JGR worked pretty well for Logano. On the other hand, not everyone cut gets picked up by Penske.
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It's entirely possible that a change of scenery MIGHT be the best thing for him. Sometimes no matter how good everybody is, it just doesn't work. I have some questions, but if TRD/Gibbs cuts him loose. I think HMS could do a LOT worse, and say it IS Larson for HMS, I think he'd be a great replacement in the 42 car.
 
I'd really love to see Daniel in the 32 - it'll be more like the 95 with the incoming tech support from SHR than a backmarker.
 
Mike Crayne said:
Ayone think he can make this work?

https://www.jayski.com/2019/11/23/justin-marks-retires-but-could-be-interested-in-nascar-ownership/
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Would be nice to see some new ownership in the top level. Problem I see is to have any chance of making it work from a financial standpoint you have to purchase (or lease) a charter. By doing that you're adding a lot more of a financial whole on top of equipment before you even start the season

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wi_racefan said:
IMO Jones is more at a risk of losing his ride in 2021 than bowman. At least no one is really running that great at HMS. But when everyone else is stacking up wins and made it the final 4 at JGR you're underachieving

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The only way Erik Jones loses his ride next year is if Larson expresses interest. Larson is loved by Toyota, and he is the one driver that they still lament losing. Then, I think it is almost a probability. Otherwise, they will work out another deal, and he will be fine.
 
StandOnIt said:
Jones is gone unless he has a Cole Custer/Bell like season and forces their hand would be my guess. The preacher's bunch has cut and pasted drivers for less.
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Hello broken record. How the hell do you criticize the man who runs a team that produced 19 wins and a Cup Champion. Wouldn't you look at that guy, and say, "I should run my team that way because his team dominated,"? Jones isn't going anywhere unless Larson wants in.....and who wouldn't after the season that team produced? OSS certified.....just as you asked........Wind Tunnel approved.....just as you demanded.....Played by the rules, and kicked ass with the best drivers.....but you still want Kenseth in the 20......or do you want Logano? ......or is this your newfound Matty D. Fandom? I can't keep up....SMDH.....Don't let your extreme bias stand in the way of your admirable intellect.
 
StandOnIt said:
Jones is gone unless he has a Cole Custer/Bell like season and forces their hand would be my guess. The preacher's bunch has cut and pasted drivers for less.
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Revman said:
Hello broken record. How the hell do you criticize the man who runs a team that produced 19 wins and a Cup Champion. Wouldn't you look at that guy, and say, "I should run my team that way because his team dominated,"?
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I'm not sure what part of SOI's comment got your hackles up. He didn't pass judgment on or make criticism of JGR's operations in his post. His statement about JGR having dropping drivers for better performance than Jones has shown looks pretty accurate to me.

Jones' performance has been disappointing, esp. after what he showed in the #77. How much time do you want to give him? If he doesn't step up his game (top 10 in points / 2nd round of playoffs), TRD has plenty of talent (besides DiBurrito) worthy of a shot.
 
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Michfan said:
Up until fairly recently rookies came in and won races. In the early/mid 2000s we had Harvick, Newman, Kahne, Edwards, Busch, Hamlin all come in and win very early in their careers.
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I think people were spoiled by that couple year stretch of rookies, and it was kinda fluky. What are the chances that many stars all get started in a stretch of about 4 years? Those are all future hall of famers or at minimum borderline HOF kinda guys. Maybe these new rookies aren’t as seasoned or not as good? I don’t know the answer tbh.



As for the Erik Jones topic, he had 10 top 5s, 17 top 10s, and won the Southern 500. If that screams fire me then there’s no hope for any of these guys. Might as well bring Edwards, Kenseth, and Biffle back
 
DaBiff1618 said:
As for the Erik Jones topic, he had 10 top 5s, 17 top 10s, and won the Southern 500.
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I can't help but compare Jones to Suarez, probably because they came in at the same time. Yes, Jones had the big win, more top 5s than Suarez (10 vs. 4), and more top 10s (17 vs. 11). Yet somehow they wound up with the same average finish (Jones 16.2 vs.Suarez 16.4). That says inconsistency to me; to average out all those top 10s, it takes a lot of finishes outside the top 25. Indeed, Suarez' average finish 2019 was a position higher than 2018 (17.4); Jones' average was a spot LOWER (15.1). Yet we see where Suarez is today.
 
DaBiff1618 said:
As for the Erik Jones topic, he had 10 top 5s, 17 top 10s, and won the Southern 500. If that screams fire me then there’s no hope for any of these guys. Might as well bring Edwards, Kenseth, and Biffle back
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I think Jones is a good driver but I think hes in jeopardy for 2 reasons

1) yes he has decent stats, but they're nothing compared to what his teammates (at least the ones still there) have done in that time period. Remember this was his 3rd fulltime year in arguably the best equipment in the garage.

2) probably the more important thing it doesn't seem like any of his sponsors are really tied to him. I'm sorry the guy just doesn't seem that marketable, like you'd see him on TV in commercials. It appears everyone that is on the car are JGR sponsors and would go with whoever Toyota decides is best to be in that car.

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Charlie Spencer said:
I can't help but compare Jones to Suarez, probably because they came in at the same time. Yes, Jones had the big win, more top 5s than Suarez (10 vs. 4), and more top 10s (17 vs. 11). Yet somehow they wound up with the same average finish (Jones 16.2 vs.Suarez 16.4). That says inconsistency to me; to average out all those top 10s, it takes a lot of finishes outside the top 25. Indeed, Suarez' average finish 2019 was a position higher than 2018 (17.4); Jones' average was a spot LOWER (15.1). Yet we see where Suarez is today.
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There are legitimate issues with PEER stats (Production in Equal Equipment Rating) as there are with just about any stat. But FWIW... Jones ranked 8th in PEER at 1.903... Suarez ranked 13th at 1.389. Between these two were Chase, Blaney, Larson, Newman (per Motorsports Analytics).
 
LewTheShoe said:
There are legitimate issues with PEER stats (Production in Equal Equipment Rating) as there are with just about any stat. But FWIW... Jones ranked 8th in PEER at 1.903... Suarez ranked 13th at 1.389. Between these two were Chase, Blaney, Larson, Newman (per Motorsports Analytics).
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I'm unfamiliar with PEER. I'm working off Racing Reference's numbers. Average finish is a number I understand.

I'm not trying to run the guy off. He may be with JGR for the next 20 years, and crank out 30 wins and a title. But I won't be surprised if 2021 finds him somewhere else.
 
Charlie Spencer said:
I can't help but compare Jones to Suarez, probably because they came in at the same time. Yes, Jones had the big win, more top 5s than Suarez (10 vs. 4), and more top 10s (17 vs. 11). Yet somehow they wound up with the same average finish (Jones 16.2 vs.Suarez 16.4). That says inconsistency to me; to average out all those top 10s, it takes a lot of finishes outside the top 25. Indeed, Suarez' average finish 2019 was a position higher than 2018 (17.4); Jones' average was a spot LOWER (15.1). Yet we see where Suarez is today.
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Jones has proven capable of winning and Suarez hasn’t, thats a pretty big difference. I’d rather have a driver that can get a bunch of top 5s, 10s, bur is inconsistent over a guy that finishes 12th every week. Kasey Kahne was like that, and he did pretty okay for himself
 
Revman said:
The only way Erik Jones loses his ride next year is if Larson expresses interest. Larson is loved by Toyota, and he is the one driver that they still lament losing. Then, I think it is almost a probability. Otherwise, they will work out another deal, and he will be fine.
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If Bell is as great as everybody thinks he will be, how long do you think TRD/GIBBS is going to be content with him being on the B team? So unless you shove Denny out the door the way they did Kenseth, where are you going to put him? Jones is in the odd spot where his stats would be good enough to guarantee him a job on any OTHER team, but probably not at TRD/GIBBS. If Bell underwhelms, he's probably safe. If Jones really steps up the results, then it gets interesting.
 
DaBiff1618 said:
Jones has proven capable of winning and Suarez hasn’t, thats a pretty big difference. I’d rather have a driver that can get a bunch of top 5s, 10s, bur is inconsistent over a guy that finishes 12th every week. Kasey Kahne was like that, and he did pretty okay for himself
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I see your point, As to 'rathers', we can all have our opinions. It's what JGR would rather that counts.
 
Charlie Spencer said:
I'm not sure what part of SOI's comment got your hackles up. He didn't pass judgment on or make criticism of JGR's operations in his post. His statement about JGR having dropping drivers for better performance than Jones has shown looks pretty accurate to me.

Jones' performance has been disappointing, esp. after what he showed in the #77. How much time do you want to give him? If he doesn't step up his game (top 10 in points / 2nd round of playoffs), TRD has plenty of talent (besides DiBurrito) worthy of a shot.
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Let’s ask SOI what he meant...What say you @StandOnIt? You with me about Coach’s superior management skills?

Jones is solid. He will be fine. How long did Logano get? Dislikers ramble about how Coach screwed him. Shouldn’t we give EJ more time than that based on disliker logic?
 
Revman said:
Let’s ask SOI what he meant...What say you @StandOnIt? You with me about Coach’s superior management skills?

Jones is solid. He will be fine. How long did Logano get? Dislikers ramble about how Coach screwed him. Shouldn’t we give EJ more time than that based on disliker logic?
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Like I said, unless Jones has a Custer/Bell like winning season he's gone. That bunch changes drivers almost as quickly as they do front ends. They plucked him early from Barney's deal, took them a little longer to get to Truex who is what they wanted in the first place. Now Jones's days are numbered, they have a shiny new toy that rings a bell. Jones has a one year contract, Bell has at least two, the deal is already done. Frankly I don't know why they held on to Jones in the first place. Couldn't come up with a good story I guess.
 
Formerjackman said:
If Bell is as great as everybody thinks he will be, how long do you think TRD/GIBBS is going to be content with him being on the B team? So unless you shove Denny out the door the way they did Kenseth, where are you going to put him? Jones is in the odd spot where his stats would be good enough to guarantee him a job on any OTHER team, but probably not at TRD/GIBBS. If Bell underwhelms, he's probably safe. If Jones really steps up the results, then it gets interesting.
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Won’t be a B team next year. Kenseth’s contract was up & his asking price was massively steeper than jones, but why let common sense & good business stand in the way of a worn out biased narrative?
 
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