Good points, and could be exactly what is happening, but I'm not sure it's that clear-cut. Stern's tweet and article don't explicitly state that the trio of Phelps, Campbell, and Larson were there together, though that is his implication. However, Larson's involvement with the school apparently predates this year, and if NASCAR is looking to take a greater role with them generally, it is possible that it's not all quite so coordinated.
Time will tell. I'm having trouble getting a read on the timing of announcements with the SHR #14 or the Hendrick teams' situations. Bowyer's announcement had an odd feel to me if it's just the result of internal pressure to get Briscoe bumped up.
Erik Jones sure sounds confident about his future here if he's landing in a lower tier ride such as the #43.
Honestly I have no idea. Different aspects suggest different outcomes.