If you want to buy the premise (not sure I do) then realistically it would be Larson or or Jones. I'm not sold on the Larson thing for multiple reasons.
1) Unless Chip freely lets him go, would Hendrick actually poach a driver from a team he has a business relationship with, and a fellow Chevy team at that?
2) Would Larson be willing to cut back on his open wheel racing, or would Rick relent and let him do it?
3) If Kyle wants to race at Indy, how would this affect that?
4) Does Kyle REALLY have the commitment to NASCAR that Rick would want?
5) Kyle seems to be too much of a one trick pony for my taste. Yes, he's VERY good at some tracks, but he's underwhelming at a lot of others. Even his ace in the hole of being great at Homestead doesn't mean much now that's it's not the final race.
I could sooner believe Jones, but ONLY if TRD-Gibbs tries to demote him to the B-team, and that still begs the question of why he has been underwhelming in the fastest equipment out there? I actually thought he was MORE impressive when he drove for Barney, at least as far as expectations go. He also doesn't see as "GQ" for lack of a better term than most of the Hendrick drivers have been over the years.