I think Larson has a good shot. In my opinion, Byron is the favorite though. He has that weird ability to show up when it counts and put himself in position to win.
Now you're just arguing for the sake of arguing. I've never denied Larson's talent. You're setting up a straw man because you can't argue my actual points.
I think Byron is underdog.
He frankly hasn't really had the dominant race winning speed all year outside of Watkins Glen, and Vegas...the later of which was won due to a late yellow. He's had top 5-7 speed most of the year and has capitalized on a lot of missfortune to win races.
And that execution (and resulting playoff points) would get him to Phoenix. But to be the favorite?
I don't think we can bank on the championship race falling into his lap. Most teams will be on their game. And the fact is, Larson has been faster than Byron these playoffs (all year really). Bell has been faster than Byron these playoffs - specifically the last 3 races, Darlington and Bristol. Blaney has been faster these playoffs as well.
It's why I never supported the Byron favorite narrative, and believe it's 2008 Kyle Busch level naive hyperbole. He hasn't been fast enough all year, in terms of raw pace to compete with the 5/11/19. And you figure that other teams would find extra speed in the playoffs. And they did. I think at this point in the season, you can reasonably say the 5, 11, 12 and 20 are all faster than him.
Now, maybe he pulls a 2015 KB, where he has speed in a one off in the playoffs...or maybe a 2019 Kyle Busch where the other Toyota's did everything they could to gift it to him.
But generally, raw pace at this point in the season is kind of the greatest indicator of champion. And every single year of the playoff era, legitimately every single one, the champion was either the fastest car of the year, or the fastest car of the playoffs. Byron is neither of those according to autoracinganalytics.com.
I think he's the underdog. But favorite? History and speed isn't on his side.
If history is any indication, speed and momentum is the best indicator. I think you can throw a blanket over the 5/12 as favorites.
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