I think what it may boil down to is the amount of money Toyota has already invested in developing Bell, and they want a payoff on their investment, but otherwise, they are taking an educated guess if they think Bell is better long term than Matt. Bell MIGHT be the second coming of Kyle Busch. On the other hand, he could be the next Austin Dillon or Ricky Stenhouse. I always keep in mind that Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart basically stunk in Busch cars, but went on to win 15 Cup titles. Meanwhile, only five drivers have ever won the Xfinity AND the Cup title, and three of them did it AFTER they were full time Cup drivers.