Not the same. In your scenario, Kulwicki would have tossed a Championship away, in this scenario JJ threw away an opportunity to advance. There are a ton of variables in JJ's situation that still have to occur as well. You have a guy who knows that his team has struggled to be a contender and is staring a shot at a win in the face. The I don't believe that the 48 team believes they were a real threat, however I also do not believe that they stopped believing in the "chance." That being said I am almost positive that JJ didn't think about how far back the 42 was or where exactly he was in the points he decided to make his move. I am also just as positive that they went over the situation and the scenario of where they were and how barring the 48 not finishing the race they would practically be in.
With all of this information I don't believe anyone would just settle in knowing that a set of circumstances like what occurred would have to occur in order for the end result be what it was. It is actually a very low probability that all of what happened would have actually happened. So the risk was not a huge risk. However, it has detrimental results if the worst were to happen. It's like bungee jumping for lack of a better analogy. You know that there is an inherent risk and danger to it, but you also know that people do it every day and nothing happens. So when you want to do something or you are chasing that rush like a bungee jumper would be (I assume) you take that into account. Sometimes the bungee snaps.
I know the analogy is terrible, but it just shows that the overall risk was not as significant as it seems after the fact. It's easy for us to sit and Monday morning quarterback the move when we have zero skin in the game and we have zero people relying on our thought process in the situation. All I know is that I have competed in sports my whole life and now I coach. My competitive drive has never allowed me to pull up or settle. As a coach I will take a team full of people willing to risk everything for one moment of glory. Those moments are not guaranteed and you never know when they will be back, so go for it.