As much as I DON'T want it to happen, I wouldn't be completely shocked if it did, just not for 2023. Rick is in a position that sometimes he does what he WANTS to do, not what makes the most sense to the rest of us. I just don't see how it happens right now. Everybody is under contract through at least 2023, and I don't think there are the opportunities for Rick to engineer a soft landing spot for a driver like he used to do with MB2. Just for example, if Rick goes to Alex and says, "Hey, I know you have a contract, but I want to set you up somewhere else so I can bring Kyle in", where does Alex go besides maybe Spire? That would be a HARD landing in my opinion, and even if Ally went along, I can't imagine that being agreeable to anyone for one second. The other elephant in the room is sponsorship, unless you think Rick is willing to fund TWO cars out of his pocket just so he can add a grumpy bipolar aging superstar to his lineup that already has four winning and playoff bound drivers. As was explained thoroughly on DBC, Kyle Busch level sponsorship deals are NOT getting put together this late in the season for 2023, so you either fund it yourself or pull sponsorship from another car, and it would probably have to be from your own team this late in the game. The question I would have too is, at this point in his career, is Kyle REALLY worth that much to a team like HMS that already has the "most popular" driver and a champion, the "most talented" driver and a champion, a young guy who seems poised to make the next step forward, and a solid young guy that wins a few races and goes to the playoffs every year? If Kyle is not winning at JGR, does anybody think he suddenly sets the world on fire at HMS? Is having Kyle worth risking the chemistry you already have? Is Chevy ready to fund his truck team? I'd guess no. I could SEE his value to SHR, I could MAYBE SEE his value to Denny and Michael, I could SEE his value to RFK, or even at a stretch Kaulig or Trackhouse, but I really DON'T see his value to HMS or Penske, and it's NOT just because I don't like the guy. To be bluntly honest, the only REAL value he has to a team is if he can win a LOT and up the performance of your team. He's not bringing sponsorship, he's not bringing massive popularity, and I don't think anybody is looking to him as a mentor, so unless you think he can step into your car and win early and often, is he worth the hassle?
I will also add that while the reports are that Rick and Kyle have buried the hatchet from what happened in the past, the last I knew, he still blamed Jeff for a lot of what happened, and would Kyle want to work with Jeff on a day to day basis, and would Jeff WANT Kyle? I'm not saying Jeff could outright veto any deal, but I would think his opinion carries quite a bit of weight.